A few points:
1. Only melting land ice raises sea level. Melting sea ice does not.
2. There are really three major land ice sheets talked about in the web sites I've looked at: The Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
These are simply true you may as well move them up with the other uncontentious items.
ABE (hit the button too soon)
3.. The Greenland Ice Sheet is not losing any mass, so it is not contributing to rising sea levels, despite all the hype about it. (From the EPA.) This isn't certain because of difficulties of measurement, but every study since 1968 listed on their site says it's the same or increasing.
I can't read the data clearly but the second chart give this summary line:
quote:
1843 76d 2246 86d 540 218 10 10e 2072 304
First 2 numbers being accumlation (over ground and all accumultion)
Next 3 numbers are melting, runoff and iceberg production
The last 3 are greater than the second so I don't know what it means.
5.The East Antarctic ice sheet is apparently gaining mass (Nature's web site news release).
That source says:
quote:
The thickening of the eastern ice sheet should not be seen as a long-term protection against a rise in sea level, warns Vaughan. Glaciers in West Antarctica are accelerating, releasing more and more icebergs into the sea. And the Antarctic Peninsula, which stretches towards South America, now regularly hits temperatures above 0 C in the summer, leading to direct melting of the ice there.
What's more, snowfall over East Antarctica will not continue to increase indefinitely in a warming world, Vaughan adds. Conversely, every extra degree of temperature rise will continue to accelerate glaciers and cause more melting on the western side of Antarctica, swelling the world's oceans further.
In addition the measurements are not complete it seems.
6
6. The Antarctic Peninsula, which is a small part of West Antarctica, has increased in temperature by 4 or 5 degrees fahrenheit since 1947. This has caused much or perhaps almost all of the West Antarctic melting. NASA felt free to say that this temperature increase has no apparent link to global warming, but is localized, and "the jury is still out" as to whether the melting will continue..
The jury is still out is the correct answer to this. Not that we can come down on one side or the other yet.
Your point 8 enforces that; we don't know.
To go from a small amount of information on complex processes to thinking we have the answer isn't a good idea.
I'd agree that current data does NOT support a 15 or 20 foot sea level raise in the next few decades but it is NOT ruled out either. There are positive feedback loops that could cause runaway change.
But we know that continued CO2 increases can warm things up even more. It is not impossible to cause a 20 foot sea level raise in decades and much, much more in a century.
So what is the best course of action when faced with such uncertainty?
What is the cost of even a 5 foot raise happening? How much risk is it prudent to take? What will we pay for "insurance"?
Edited by NosyNed, : to finish the reply