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Hawking Comes Clean

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Author Topic:   Hawking Comes Clean
Aware Wolf
Member (Idle past 1448 days)
Posts: 156
From: New Hampshire, USA
Joined: 02-13-2009

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Message 14 of 148 (579057)
09-03-2010 1:17 PM 		Reply to: Message 5 by Rahvin
09-03-2010 12:00 PM

Rahvin writes:
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But all things being equal, A is always more likely than A AND B.
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This doesn't seem to be quite right. Or maybe it misses the point. A is given (the universe). Then, the question is: which is more likely: B or not B (God). I don't think simple probability can tell us that A AND NOT B is more likely than A AND B, without knowing something about B.
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"In short, [he] was one of those people with lots of intelligence and no brains, and everyone knew it except those who soon found it out." - Joseph Heller, Catch-22
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 Message 5 by Rahvin, posted 09-03-2010 12:00 PM Rahvin has replied
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 Message 16 by Blue Jay, posted 09-03-2010 1:25 PM Aware Wolf has not replied
 Message 20 by Rahvin, posted 09-03-2010 2:59 PM Aware Wolf has replied
  
Aware Wolf
Member (Idle past 1448 days)
Posts: 156
From: New Hampshire, USA
Joined: 02-13-2009

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Message 24 of 148 (579097)
09-03-2010 3:51 PM 		Reply to: Message 20 by Rahvin
09-03-2010 2:59 PM

Yes, I follow all that. I'm just trying to figure out if it justifies this from your original post:
If an unfalsified model for the existence of the Universe exists without including a god, simple probability dictates that it is more likely that the Universe formed without divine intervention.
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Here you are comparing the probability of a universe created by divine intervention vs. the probability of a universe NOT created by divine intervention. Both situations agree the probability of A=100%; it's the B term where the action is. Assuming no prior knowledge of the likelihood of B in it's own right, it just seems like a 50/50 proposition.
​
I guess my question is, is it
A AND B vs. A AND NOT B, (universe AND God vs. universe AND NO God)
or
A AND B vs. A AND (EITHER B OR NOT B) (universe AND God vs. universe)
​
I think it's the former, but it would have to be the latter for your point to hold.
​
"In short, [he] was one of those people with lots of intelligence and no brains, and everyone knew it except those who soon found it out." - Joseph Heller, Catch-22
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