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Author Topic:   The Antecedent Probability Principle, the Proportional Principle & Carl Sagan
Tangle
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Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 44 of 72 (657986)
04-01-2012 3:34 PM
Reply to: Message 42 by NoNukes
04-01-2012 2:15 PM


Re: Sigh. I'm sure those goal posts were right here...
NoNukes writes:
I'm saying that general relativity was not evidence based prior to about 1915, and that Einstein's pursuit of it beginning in about 1907 or so was not triggered by evidence. It is the case that we currently have lots of experimental verification now.
I'm saying that string theory is currently a mathematical, unevidenced pursuit. The term "theory" in the expression may very well turn out to be mere euphemism. String theory may very well turn out to be utterly untestable.
I know nothing about string theory and less about the historicity of Einsten's work but I do know that both Einstein and the guys working on string theory were/are trying to solve a problem in physics that exists or existed. They use mathematical tools and knowledge that pre-existed to create models of our world which can be tested by others.
In modern times the string theory guys need to provide evidence to the funders that pay their salaries that their work is worth continuing and may provide more information about our world. It's a rational process.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

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 Message 42 by NoNukes, posted 04-01-2012 2:15 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 54 by NoNukes, posted 04-01-2012 7:16 PM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
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Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 45 of 72 (657987)
04-01-2012 3:47 PM
Reply to: Message 43 by Chuck77
04-01-2012 2:28 PM


Re: Sigh. I'm sure those goal posts were right here...
Chuck writes:
Yeah, and that's the problem. What current evidence is there for string theory? About the same as miracles? Yet you say it's rational to explore string theory, why?
I have no idea what evidence there is for string theory, luckily if you need to know the answer, you can check the wiki on it. But do you doubt that the process being used to build the theory is rational? Do you think that it's likely that the models, mathematics and physics that they use to establish it lack evidence? Or that the problems they are trying to solve are real?
Now apply the same tests to miracles.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

This message is a reply to:
 Message 43 by Chuck77, posted 04-01-2012 2:28 PM Chuck77 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 46 by Chuck77, posted 04-01-2012 4:20 PM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 48 of 72 (657995)
04-01-2012 4:54 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by Chuck77
04-01-2012 4:20 PM


Re: Sigh. I'm sure those goal posts were right here...
Chuck writes:
So your rationale is based on the process and not the thing being investigated or explored?
All of the above plus the prior history of investigating related problems.
Apply what to miracles? The same approach that is applied to string theory? Why? With all things being equal there can be the same process of investigation into miracles as string theory. Just different methods. Can it not?
For a miracle I'd start by calling James Randi. So far that has prevented a lot of time and money being wasted. After that you use whatever technique is apprpriate. But first you have to catch your miracle in order to gather the evidence for it. Unfortunately, miracles don't seem to want to be caught or even give us a clue that they exist..

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

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Tangle
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Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 49 of 72 (657997)
04-01-2012 5:00 PM
Reply to: Message 33 by Chuck77
04-01-2012 7:27 AM


Chuck writes:
I don't get it. Are you saying no ones ever been brough back to life after they died?
Not miraculously, no. Are you saying they have been?

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

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 Message 33 by Chuck77, posted 04-01-2012 7:27 AM Chuck77 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by Chuck77, posted 04-01-2012 5:44 PM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
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Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 52 of 72 (658003)
04-01-2012 6:02 PM
Reply to: Message 50 by Chuck77
04-01-2012 5:44 PM


Chuck writes:
What do you consider to be miraculous?
Nothing. Yet.
The miraculous can cross over into the natural or how else would we be able to know it exists?
Well exactly. But they never have.
People die the come back to life and sometimes we don't know why regardless how or why it happened. How are you defining miraculous?
A miracle would be if the guy that came back to life had been decapitated, burned to a cinder, shot 10 times in the heart etc etc. funny how the uncontroversially dead NEVER come back to life isn't it?

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

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 Message 50 by Chuck77, posted 04-01-2012 5:44 PM Chuck77 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 60 by Chuck77, posted 04-02-2012 6:05 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 55 of 72 (658050)
04-02-2012 3:39 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by NoNukes
04-01-2012 7:16 PM


Re: Details matter
NoNukes writes:
Einstein was working on a problem, but the problem was not evidence based. Unlike the situation with special relativity, there were no unexplained experimental results that compelled Einstein to pursue general relativity. I agree that Einstein's pursuit was always logical, and in hindsight, we must surely agree that the pursuit was worthwhile, but initially the pursuit was logical without being evidence based.
I don't know enough about Einstein and relativity to argue whether his pursuit was evidence based or otherwise, I still say it's irrelevant.
The outcome of his work can be tested and whether we accept his results or not IS evidence based. My original point is that we can't accept a claim without evidence. Einstein could have been a nutter rather than a genius who's theory was equivalent to our sponge on a stick man in another thread - he has to be able to prove his theory to others using evidence before it can be accepted.
Could you cite any of that evidence? I agree that pursuing string theory is rational, and that string theory guys need to report results, but so far results cannot be about the evidence 'cause there isn't any.
Again so what? I assume that there's enough evidence for the ideas for them to get funding to do the research but that again is irrelevant. For anyone to finally accept the outcome of their work, they will need to provide enough evidence - in whatever form - to convince others with equivalent knowledge that it's true.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

This message is a reply to:
 Message 54 by NoNukes, posted 04-01-2012 7:16 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 56 by NoNukes, posted 04-02-2012 5:17 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
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Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 57 of 72 (658055)
04-02-2012 5:47 AM
Reply to: Message 56 by NoNukes
04-02-2012 5:17 AM


Re: What evidence??
NoNukes writes:
It would follow from the above that it would be reasonable to wait for the results to determine whether an activity was rational or not. That does not appear to be the standard you use for pursuits you have already decided are irrational.
It's not my position that it is necessary to know whether an individual pursuing an interest is behaving rationally or otherwise. (Although I would contend that Einstein was, whilst Sponge on Stick man wasn't.)
My point is that when the outcome of those pursuits is a statement about our world, before we can accept it, it must have sufficient evidence to support it.
I find it easy to reach the conclusion that Einstein's pursuit was rational independent of the results, and despite the lack of an evidence based reason for the pursuit.
So do I. But so what? It's not my contention that the pursuit of knowledge is always rational.
Again, there is no evidence that string theory will correctly describe our universe.
It would be irrational of me to accept that statement without evidence.
My position is that if there was no rational basis for the enquiry into string theory, there would be no funding for it. Moreover, a cursory glance at the 'theory' throws up many reasons why it's a reasonable thing to consider given the evidence, and may indeed have testable outcomes - albeit difficult/contentious.
Several major difficulties complicate efforts to test string theory. The most significant is the extremely small size of the Planck length, which is expected to be close to the string length (the characteristic size of a string, where strings become easily distinguishable from particles). Another issue is the huge number of metastable vacua of string theory, which might be sufficiently diverse to accommodate almost any phenomena we might observe at lower energies.
On the other hand, all string theory models are quantum mechanical, Lorentz invariant,[22] unitary, and contain Einstein's General Relativity as a low energy limit.[23] Therefore, to falsify[24] string theory, it would suffice to falsify quantum mechanics, fundamental Lorentz invariance,[22] or general relativity.[25] Other potential falsifications of string theory would include the confirmation of a model from the swampland[26][27] or observations of positive curvature in cosmology.[25][28][29]
However, these falsifications do not necessarily correspond to predictions which are unique to string theory, and finding a way to experimentally verify string theory via unique predictions remains a major challenge.[30]
String theory - Wikipedia
I am not qualified to comment any further on this - I simply do not have the knowledge to contribute and must rely on those that have.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

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Replies to this message:
 Message 58 by Chuck77, posted 04-02-2012 5:56 AM Tangle has replied
 Message 69 by NoNukes, posted 04-02-2012 10:10 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
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Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


(1)
Message 61 of 72 (658059)
04-02-2012 6:08 AM
Reply to: Message 60 by Chuck77
04-02-2012 6:05 AM


Chuck writes:
No, actually it's not really that funny. You don't seem to understand what miracles are. You seem to think they are things that happen in horror movies apparently.
Then do put me right. Give me an example of a miracle that is worthy or capable of rational investigation.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

This message is a reply to:
 Message 60 by Chuck77, posted 04-02-2012 6:05 AM Chuck77 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 63 by Chuck77, posted 04-02-2012 6:13 AM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 64 of 72 (658062)
04-02-2012 6:16 AM
Reply to: Message 58 by Chuck77
04-02-2012 5:56 AM


Re: What evidence??
The evidence is in the Wiki. I can do no more for you than that.
But - once again - it's not my position that the pursuit of knowledge about our world needs to be rational (although in the case of String Theory, it clearly is); my position is that any claims made about our world must be evidence based in order for us to rationally accept them.
So if String Theory ever produces anything, those that know about these things will demand evidence and eventually proof. If it can not mach that standard, it will not be accepted as fact - it will remain a hypothesis.
(It's clearly not a theory at the moment - that's just loose language.)

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

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Tangle
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Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 65 of 72 (658068)
04-02-2012 6:22 AM
Reply to: Message 62 by Chuck77
04-02-2012 6:10 AM


Chuck writes:
This is from the OP. So is it your postion that miracles cannot exist?
No. You need to read my next sentence.
"I'm sure this begs the question. Maybe someone who has properly studied this can take the argument further?"
It's my BELIEF that miracles do NOT exist. My belief can be changed by the facts. That would require a miracle to be proven.
Is it also your position that if the SN exists it cannot defy natural laws?
Again No. By definition, SN must defy natural laws.
Do you claim that miracles cannot exist because the SN does not exist?
It's my BELIEF that miracles do NOT exist. My belief can be changed by the facts. That would require a miracle to be proven.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

This message is a reply to:
 Message 62 by Chuck77, posted 04-02-2012 6:10 AM Chuck77 has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 66 of 72 (658071)
04-02-2012 6:28 AM
Reply to: Message 63 by Chuck77
04-02-2012 6:13 AM


Re: What is a miracle?
Since it's your thread, can you define miracle before I give an example?
I'm happy with any normal definition. Try this one:
miracle |ˈmirikəl|
noun
a surprising and welcome event that is not explicable by natural or scientific laws and is therefore considered to be the work of a divine agency: the miracle of rising from the grave.
I have prayed for healing for myself before and I was healed. Is that a miracle?
Recovery from illness is not miraculous - it's a known and largely understood biological process. Had you been dead and buried for a month and THEN healed yourself, I'd be more interested.
Edited by Tangle, : No reason given.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

This message is a reply to:
 Message 63 by Chuck77, posted 04-02-2012 6:13 AM Chuck77 has not replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 70 of 72 (658120)
04-02-2012 12:16 PM
Reply to: Message 69 by NoNukes
04-02-2012 10:10 AM


Re: What evidence??
NoNukes writes:
In any event, I'm simply attempting to use your metric to make that determination. Einstein understood his near decade long pursuit to be rational endeavor. Why cannot I use your proposition to investigate Einstein's belief?
I doubt this will help, because I still have no idea what you're trying to get at but:
As a general principle, anybody doing research into the nature of our world (which I assumed was what we were talking about and which I also assume includes Einstein and String Theory) - will be using rational, evidence based approaches. If they aren't then they can never convince another scientist of their results.
(And this last is why I don't need to understand either String Theory or Einstein's methods myself to be able to say that they are rational - because they are supported by the scientific community as legitimate for their purposes)
On the other hand our man with the sponge on a stick, was not using any kind of rational process - even though, by a loose definition, he could conceivably be said to be searching for knowledge.
But I really don't care about the pursuit of the knowledge, it doesn't matter a damn whether Einstein was doing what Sponge on Stick man is doing or whether String Theory physicists are secretly using crystal balls to get their answers. It's the answers themselves that matter.
If Einstein had said that E=MC^2 arrived as a message from god, we'd demand evidence of it's truth before we accepted it. Of course that evidence would, in the main, be in the form of his methodology - in Dr A's words, he would be required to show his workings.
If you want to move this forward, you're going to have to say why you think Einsteins methods and beliefs matter to whether we can accept claims without sufficient evidence.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

This message is a reply to:
 Message 69 by NoNukes, posted 04-02-2012 10:10 AM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 71 by NoNukes, posted 04-02-2012 1:51 PM Tangle has replied

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 9516
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 72 of 72 (658135)
04-02-2012 1:57 PM
Reply to: Message 71 by NoNukes
04-02-2012 1:51 PM


Re: What evidence??
NoNukes writes:
Do you know whether string theory has produced any answers?
No.

Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android

This message is a reply to:
 Message 71 by NoNukes, posted 04-02-2012 1:51 PM NoNukes has seen this message but not replied

  
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