The Antecedent Probability Principle, the Proportional Principle & Carl Sagan

The flaw in this line of reasoning is extremely simple, and should be obvious: If our understanding of the natural laws were perfect, this argument would make sense.Unfortunately, humanity is not collectively omniscient. Our understanding of nature's laws is incomplete.Many scientific breakthroughs bear the appearance of being "miraculous," because they strongly differ from the way we perceived nature prior to the discovery. Imagine how many "miracles" would be observed by a person transported from 200 years ago to the present day!An apparently miraculous phenomenon (presuming it's repeatable so that it can be studied, and not simply an aggregate story based on multiple witnesses who are attempting to interpret a confusing observation with only their memories) would be a hint to a new scientific breakthrough, a key to a deeper understanding of the real laws of nature, of which we are always at least to some degree ignorant.Imagine if, tomorrow, someone discovered a substance that apparently defied gravity when subjected to an electric current. This would appear miraculous...but the real miracle is that we would, for the first time, have a real observational hint toward a deeper understanding of physics (assuming the phenomenon genuinely represents a contrary observation to our basic understanding of gravity, and not merely a misidentified phenomenon relying on a mechanism not at all resembling anti-gravity).It certainly seems to be true that there are no exceptions to nature's laws, that the basic behavior of the Universe is entirely self-consistent everywhere and at all times. But because our comprehension of those laws and behaviors is incomplete, the apparently miraculous can still occur - confusing phenomenon that contradict currently understood laws are simply the key to understanding what the real laws are.We should not believe that exceptions to nature's laws exist. But we shouldn't refuse to believe that a phenomenon has occurred only because it appears to contradict our current understanding of those laws, because such phenomenon simply indicate that it is our understanding that is lacking, not the consistency of the Universe itself.