Phatboy responds to me:
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I am looking at the sheer probability of contact based upon the sheer number of chance civilizations that in theory exist.
You still run into the problem that the galaxy is a
very large place. What possible incentive could any civilization have in exploring this particular corner of it?
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Even allowing for technological differences, surely 1 out of a possible 30,000 could find us.
Just because you are technologically capable doesn't mean you are practically capable. Somewhere on the planet earth, I have hidden a pea. It is in plain sight and brightly colored. There's even a sign that says, "This is the pea you are looking for," with an arrow pointing at it. Go find it. When you see it, you'd recognize it in a heartbeat. You are technologically capable of finding the pea. You are not, however, practically capable of finding it because the space in which you have to look is so vast.
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If this math can't be figured as a probable, how on earth will WE ever get our space exploring act together?
What makes you think we can? You're forgetting that the galaxy is a
very large place. It took decades just for the Pioneer probes to leave the solar system. Even if we wanted to leave, it would require a setup that would provide a sustainable environment for
generations.
The Pioneer space probe is currently heading toward Aldebaran, 68 light years away. At its current rate, it will take over two million years to get there. What sort of project do you think you can create that will be able to survive for that long?
Rrhain
WWJD? JWRTFM!