Before we get into details like that I think we need to decide what the Exodus needs to be - i.e how close events need to be to the story to count.
Do we need a full 2 million Hebrews ? A few thousand ? A few dozen - or less - who inspired Canaanite tribesmen ?
If we decide that we need everything right, if we could confirm the numbers leaving Egypt, spending 40 years in the Sinai, invading and conquering Canaan then proving that would do a good deal to prop up the accuracy of the Bible. Maybe it wouldn't be good evidence for God, but it would be something (those numbers are impressive). If we add in evidence for the Plagues - and especially for the Hebrews being spared the death of the firstborn ten I'd say that we had something worth paying attention to, even if it fell short of proof.
But we don't have that. We don't have the depopulation of Egypt. We don't have a huge tribal confederation spending 40 years in Sinai, as a unit. We don't even have an outside people coming in and conquering Canaan - the Israelite ancestors seem to be as Canaanite as their enemies. And if we can find poor matches for parts of the story even they don't fit together.
But if we go for some smaller event, a few thousand Israelites at most then it seems that we don't have much evidence supporting Judaism or Christianity there. And we don't even have evidence for that. It seems that the Exodus is at best a distorted memory of historical events, events either too far from the story for us to reliably identify them or too small to leave traces we can find today.
Perhaps we should be asking if the failure of the Exodus story is significant evidence against the Christian of Judaic God.