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Author | Topic: Bit Coin: 2 bit bubble | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Phat writes: We don't want to become poorer, after all, though there was a case made for socialism on Planet Money. Planet Money is misdefining socialism just like most everyone else, even though they've got economist Richard Wolff right there correcting them. Planet money says that what many western countries have is capitalism with a socialist band-aid, and that this is the kind of capitalism that politicians like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez advocate. But conservatives call this form of capitalism socialism, even though it's not. Right after Planet Money calls it capitalism with a socialist band-aid, there's economist Richard Wolff saying straight out, "That's not socialism." Start listening at 11:20. There *are* socialist advocates and politicians in North America and Europe, but they're not Democrats. Not even the most progressive Democrats are socialists. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and Welfare are not socialism, and anyone who thinks they are is just wrong. Socialism is ownership of the means of production by the workers instead of by the capitalists, but in reality the state becomes a surrogate for the workers and the state ends up owning the means of production. In actual socialist countries the state owns all businesses and factories and hospitals and shops and banks and so forth. That's what socialism means, and no one in the Democratic party is advocating socialism. The reason Democrats get called socialists so much is because conservatives find it a very effective labeling tool to beat Democrats over the head with. In the public mind socialism is associated with evil, bringing to mind communism and dictatorships. Democrats who advocate making Medicare more widely available will be called socialists by conservatives, but government paying for medical care is not socialism. It's a social program. The only thing the term "social program" has in common with "socialism" is that it includes the word "social." No Democrat wants the government to own the means of production. Electing Democrats will not turn the US into a socialist country. Anyone who believes that the governments of wealthy countries should provide a social safety net for the poor, the ill, and the elderly, and maybe pay for college too, all this paid for by taxes on everyone who isn't poor, ill, elderly or a student, and by taxes on corporations, should be a Democrat because the alternative, the Republicans, are robbing the country dry for the benefit of the rich at the expense of everyone else, plus the Republicans are delusional and have become a nationalistic, racist anti-democratic cult of personality. Conservatism has a lot to recommend it, but the Republicans have given up on conservatism to instead serve an orange master. Our democracy is not guaranteed. It *can* fail. How quickly the Republican party and a good part of America has come under the sway of an autocratic demagogue is sobering. Democracies have failed in the past. After the collapse of the Soviet Union Russia became a democracy under Boris Yeltsin. It is now a dictatorship under Vladimir Putin. Whether our own democracy fails will depend in large part on how many people finally remember that what's most important is not that your guy win but that the guy with the most votes wins. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Phat writes: I dont know if I trust him yet. He is one of those educated elitist liberals. Probably could care less if the US Middle Class suffers. Richard Wolff is not a liberal. You can call him a socialist or a Marxist, but not a liberal. Marx's "to each according to his needs" is the closest Marxism comes to social programs, in that welfare and Medicaid provide for the needs of those who can't earn enough to provide for themselves. But believing in the importance of a social safety net is not in any way related to state ownership of the means or production. You don't have to like Democrats or liberals, but at least get your terminology and definitions right, else you'll be vulnerable to being duped. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Phat writes: While we are in this topic, Percy...I might ask you if you believe that the US is heading for a rough patch of road financially or whether things will go on cyclically as they always have? Did you believe the Trump deficits would cause a rough financial patch? Your judgment about whether a deficit will cause problems seems highly dependent upon who is president. Problems are not solved by deciding which person or group to believe. That approach is doomed from the start, and you'll be yanked to and fro as emotionally appealing arguments and counterarguments are presented. Problems are solved by first understanding them. --Percy Edited by Percy, : Typo.
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Phat writes: The debate is not about the differences in ideology so much as the fiscal monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks and the relationship between the government's ability to borrow and essentially create more money out of nothing. The central banks are managed by the Federal Reserve, and the Federal Reserve is still chaired by the same guy Trump appointed in 2018. The government's ability to borrow has not changed, nor has its ability to "create more money out of nothing" (more about that in a minute). As you noted, the deficit grew under Trump, and it will grow under Biden. The only thing that's different is who's president. Why did you start worrying about the deficit only after we changed presidents?
The US Dollar is a fiat currency. This has been true for a long, long time and describes all the major world currencies, including the dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the pound, the Euro, the Swiss franc and the yen. Why have you suddenly decided this is a problem? Which group with an agenda are you listening to? About the government being able to create money, it has had this ability for a long, long time, as have all governments of modern economies, but I think you knew that. What you probably didn't know is that even you have the ability to create money. I'll explain. If you deposit $10,000 in a bank then that bank can loan that money to borrowers. Bank reserve requirements (set by the Federal Reserve) only require them to keep a percentage of deposited money on hand. The rest they can lend out. If the bank reserve requirement is 10% then the bank can loan out 90% of deposits. In the case of your $10,000 deposit they must keep $1,000 but can loan out the rest, or $9,000. This loaned out money eventually finds it way into other banks (or the same bank) as deposits. The most direct way this can happen is if the entity borrowing the $9000 deposits it in the same bank it borrowed it from until it needs it. Your original $10,000 deposit has become a total of $19,000 in deposits. The bank can take this additional $9,000 and loan out 90% of it again. This is what is known as the money multiplier. When the reserve requirement is 10% then the money multiplier is the inverse of 10%, which is 1/.1 or 10. You original $10,000 deposit can theoretically become $100,000 in loans, increasing the money supply by $90,000. Congratulations - you have just created money out of nothing, just like our government. From your Fiat Money: What It Is, How It Works, Example, Pros & Cons link:
quote: There is not a working currency anywhere in the world that uses the gold standard today. It was abandoned long ago, for obvious reasons.
After studying some of what the so-called experts are saying, I am convinced that the dollars days are numbered. Whatever replaces it will be traceable to the fullest extent. You haven't studied anything. You're just choosing which side to listen to based on how appealing you found their arguments. Actual understanding is absent. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Phat writes: And Percy you would be wise to pay attention. I *am* paying attention. I refuted everything you said while highlighting your ignorance. You're apparently ignoring it to instead baselessly say "...pay attention...this will wipe out a lot of your assets as well," which is completely free of substance. It's obvious scaremongers have taken over your thinking. I do not understand why you fancy yourself some prescient messenger sounding the alarm before deaf ears. If you want to discuss actual data and information then I'm interested, but if you're going to just keep issuing a call to arms against invaders apparent to no one else and about whom all you can say is, "They're coming, be afraid," then I'm going to start ignoring you. --Percy Edited by Percy, : Grammar.
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Phat writes: Percy writes: It's obvious scaremongers have taken over your thinking. This is a possibility. I have been listening to a book on Audible:
The Big Silver Short: How The Wall Street Banks Have Left The Silver Market In Place For The Short-Squeeze Of A Lifetime I can discern bullshit from substance, however. You really can't.
They are not simply trying to sell silver. (Though they may have succeeded in selling the book! ) Read the introduction and tell me what you think. Explain what the introduction says in your own words. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Phat writes: The sugars are coming down, by the way, and I am owning responsibility for my health. I took a month off from work in order to address these concerns... I am glad to hear that.
Did you read the introduction to the latest book I am listening to on Audible? Please at least read the introduction and then you and I can go from there. The Big Silver Short: How The Wall Street Banks Have Left The Silver Market In Place For The Short-Squeeze Of A Lifetime Please explain your position in your own words, because I think the likelihood too great that what they're saying and what you think they're saying are two different things.
My basic argument regarding the financial realm in a global context is that much goes on behind the scenes and under the radar (or concern) of the Treasury Secretary, the head of the Federal Reserve, and the day-to-day news of the financial media. Probably. But the people you're listening to aren't privy to this information either. They're just claiming to know this secret stuff that no one knows, you're gullible enough to believe them, plus it just feels so empowering to think you're one of the special people who know the "real truth". My sister loves crazy conspiracy theories as much as you, and these days she's excited to be one of the few people who know that the UFO's are actually the reptilian alien race, who were also responsible for the huge explosion in Beirut last year. We'd know this except that it was covered up. Why she thinks she knows something that was covered up is beyond me, but the people who originate these crazy conspiracy theories know that telling people they're being given secret information is one sure way to reel them in.
For the record, I have a local close friend, a man whom I have known for 38 years, who tells me I am scared of reality. He would argue that booms and busts, stock market expansion and contraction, and US inflation itself are cycles that always happen and that there is no undue cause for concern. Your friend is mostly right, but I'd question that there's no cause for concern. There's always cause for concern. It's always possible that an economic crisis could be the end of the US. We've survived every economic crisis so far, but that doesn't mean there's no economic crisis that could bring us down. They're nothing sacred or eternal about the US.
One favor that I ask in this thread is if you can help me add a few MP3 audio clips so that I can advance my argument verbally rather than only in writing. Is that easy to do or not? MP3's and videos are less than ideal. Reading is much faster than viewing or listening, and one cannot skim an audio or video for the key points.
I can create the basic MP3 files, but as of yet there is no way to paste them into Forums such as this and I was unaware of how this affects your bandwidths. YouTube hosts videos - maybe there are sites that host MP3's.
I DO know that we are able to have YouTube videos here, but I wanted to find a way to share some audio clips. Do you need somewhere to upload an MP3 to, or do you just want to include an MP3 in a message. If the latter then just do this:
<audio src="https://samplelib.com/lib/preview/mp3/sample-3s.mp3" controls="" controlslist="nodownload" /<!--UB >-->><!--E--><!--UB --> That will yield this:
Percy writes: Without linking to any video or webpage, explain the following: Define the "US lifestyle in the early 70's" and enumerate which of its qualities you think we risk losing and that should be preserved. I was ranting. Upon reflection, the only thing I wish that we had now that we had in the 70's is a lower National Debt. The numbers seem totally out of control and nobody seems to care any more. The party that seems to care least about the national debt is the Republicans. The pandemic related debt can't be helped, but the largest increase in debt before that was because of the 2008 economic crisis brought on by Republican repeal of Glass-Steagel because it led directly to the mortgage security collapse.
There have been periods of higher inflation all through our history. The inflation that began in the 60's and extended through the 70's (Remember Nixon's wage/price controls? It wasn't just the oil shocks of the late 70's causing inflation.) was back to normal by the mid-80's. Explain how we were different from other countries before that period of inflation, and how we were just like them afterwards.
What I miss is the cocoon of exceptionalism and power that we used to have. And I know how you all will likely respond to that statement! How would we be likely respond?
What forces and/or circumstances are placing the dollar's status as a global currency at risk? The excessive quantitative easing, the suppression of Gold and Silver which should by all logical standards be soaring as high as bit-coin, and the resulting creation of inflation which in my opinion is anything but "transitory". Please explain your "all logical standards" that should have sent gold and silver soaring.
The US ranks 15th in quality of life (Standard Of Living By Country 2021). None of the countries in front of us have a global currency, unless you count the Euro which doesn't belong to any single country. How do you explain that, for example, Finland, Estonia, and Slovenia are in front of us? Probably because we have a GOP bent on reducing taxes for the rich and also have an enormous and ever-increasing National Debt. Keep in mind, however, that both political parties add to this debt and I fear that kicking the can down the road has reached its limit very soon. Finland, Estonia and Slovenia's ratio of national debt to GDP is not all that much less than our own,69% ,88% and 56% as compared to our own 108%, and much of that acquired in just the past year - a year ago it was around 80%. You're going to have to seek another explanation - stop pulling excuses out of your ass and start thinking.
Percy writes: Until you learn how to think through the data and to reason for yourself you'll continue reaching in the dark toward voices that resonate most strongly with you, no matter how nonsensical and fact-free they are. I'm working on it, Percy. Promises, promises. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Phat writes: For 5000 years, that gold bar has held its value, unlike a hunk of Lead or a Rock (aside from Diamonds) The price of gold is determined by supply/demand. It will fluctuate in the short term but rise in the long term because the world supply is rising more slowly than the demand created by the increasing number of persons in the world. The world produces about 2.79 ounces of gold each year for each person by which the world population increases. Since on average a person will consume more than 2.79 ounces of gold over their lifetime, gold will be in increasingly short supply over the long term and so the price will continue to increase. Just like gold and all commodities, lead and rock also have fluctuating values determined by supply/demand. Diamonds are not the only rocks with value. There are a wide variety of gems, plus gravel, fill, etc., and all have fluctuating values according to supply/demand, just like gold. Gravel's around $40/ton around here. Because the supply of gold is decreasing per person, it is unsuitable as the base of value for a currency.
Look, all that I can do is to show you some of the analysts that I listen to. Instead of posting links to read or watch please explain your thoughts in your own words.
Ringo insists that I put this explanation into my own words,... My guess is that most agree.
...I have 1/100th of the knowledge that these analysts have. Exactly, too little to recognize when you're being sold a line of malarkey.
Most of us listen to our advisors regarding stocks because stocks have enjoyed a decade-long Bull Run and have made us a fair amount of money. During a bull market it is the very dumb analyst who manages to not make money. There's a book from the 1970's titled If They're So Smart, How Come You're Not Rich. Stock-market-unsavvy individuals should not be investing in the stock market on the basis of analysts' advice because their job it is to make money for their employers (i.e., churn your account while being careful not to be too obvious about it) and not for their clients who can always be replaced. In other words, if you make money during a bull market, it is not due to the brilliance of your stock advisor. Years ago I did all my own stock picking and dumping decisions, and after maybe a decade I'd done slightly worse than the stock market. I gave it up in disgust, and then the final version of the portfolio sat untouched for the next decade. When I finally looked at it again to do something else with the money I discovered that buying and holding (in essence what I'd done by ignoring it) had worked great. Do your research, buy quality stocks, then hold onto them through thick and thin (or ignore them, it's easier to sleep that way).
Just watch these guys... No. You explain it.
Transcript writes: etc... PHAT, GEEZ, YOUR OWN WORDS!!!! USE YOUR WORDS!!!! YOU'RE A YOUTUBE SUCKER!!!! --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
You're contradicting yourself. You begin your paragraph claiming the price of gold has been kept stable:
The price has been kept stable. And you end your paragraph by claiming it has been steadily rising:
By being managed, the price has increased slowly and steadily over the past 80 years or so. It seems to be a fact that the price of both Gold and Silver has been manipulated managed and not allowed to let its value be determined by a free market. What is your evidence that gold and silver prices are being manipulated/managed? Read The Pit: A Story of Chicago about an investor who tried to corner the market in wheat, a commodity. It makes the way commodities markets work so clear that you might come to understand you're speaking garbage. If you're so sure the markets in gold and silver are being manipulated, explain how they're doing it and how it became known that they're doing it. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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You're not engaging in discussion. You're just wandering the streets of Crazytown muttering kooky ideas inspired by exploitive YouTubers.
--Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
God, Phat, stop bolluxing up the discussion. We're talking about your ideas. Regardless their source you're still expected to present them in your own words. This is to ensure that you understand what you're talking about.
I wont bother trying to explain it any more than i have. You haven't explained anything. You just keep issuing baseless dire warnings while referencing YouTube videos. Use your words!
I think dwise1 might even see some logic in what i say though the rest of you are gullible sheeple. Dont whine to me when the value of your investments shrinks by 30% in the next 3-5 years. im not an idiot. There may not be a single true thing in that entire paragraph. Anytime you'd like to dip your toe into a fact-based discussion it would be more than welcome. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Phat writes: Percy writes:
Here are today's facts from Yahoo Finance. Our BitCoin is again on its way up. Silver and Gold? Down slightly.
Anytime you'd like to dip your toe into a fact-based discussion it would be more than welcome.Yahoo writes: From 08/06/2021:BitCoin: $43,487.92 Up $2,908.06 or 7.16%. ---------------------------- Gold: $1758.40. Down $46.70 or 2.59%. ---------------------------- Silver: $24.33. Down .96 or 3.80%. You haven't thought this through. Sure, those are facts, but how did you imagine that one day's prices for gold, silver and bitcoin advanced your arguments? This is from The most dangerous scam in American history from today's Washington Post:
quote: You've been conned. Nothing wrong with that, happens to lots of people. You're problem is that you're psychologically predispositioned to be conned over and over and over again, plus you keep seeking magical solutions. Your life history confirms this. You have a long established recurring self-destructive pattern. I have not watched any of your YouTube videos. I already know what a scam looks like. You need better arguments than, "You better listen to me else you'll be sorry someday." Here's an example of an argument that makes sense: Housing prices have been rising recently, but it seems possible that the rise could be at an end and that prices could actually begin dropping over the next year. This is because the foreclosure moratorium is ending, and as banks foreclose on homes with overdue mortgages the inventory of unsold houses will grow, putting downward pressure on housing prices. Can you see how this paragraph draws a connection between real world events or circumstances (end of the foreclosure moratorium) and real world effects (increasing numbers of unsold homes) with real world consequences (decreasing home prices)? Especially note that there is no fiction, no conspiracy theories. The foreclosure moratorium *did* end. The pandemic *did* leave many people way behind on their mortages. Banks *do* have a long history of foreclosing on homes where mortgage payments are way behind and are very likely to continue doing so. And the law of supply/demand has been long established, that the more of something there is (houses) the cheaper they get. You need to do the same thing for your ideas about silver, and you need to do it without irrationality, appeals to fear, and conspiracy theories. Something you need to look up: The Dutch Tulip Panic of 1637 Something you need to read: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
I agree with dwise1 - your story keeps changing. You often use yourself as an example, and your situation changes according to your argument of the moment. Are you rich, middle class or poor? Have your reached a diabetic crisis point or are you healthy? Do you trust neither side's characterization of the other, or do you get all your information about both liberals and conservatives from the Republicans?
You're like a debate chameleon lately. I often feel moved to reply, but then I usually realize there's no point to replying because in no time your position will have shifted. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Phat writes: Percy writes: Are you rich, middle class or poor? I earn roughly $27,000.00 a year. I have no real wealth except the apartment condo that my Mom left me. It's good that you own your own home, but given that you have "no real wealth" the claims you made about investments seem unlikely.
Have you reached a diabetic crisis point or are you healthy? I recently had an A1C of 10.4% and am fighting to get healthy. I have been eating better but I have a ways to go. You are still at a dangerous health critical A1C level that will damage blood vessels, nerves, organs and insulin producing cells. You need to work harder at reducing your A1C level - something below 6% would be a good target. Are you on insulin?
Do you trust neither side's characterization of the other, or do you get all your information about both liberals and conservatives from the Republicans? I think I tend to lean more towards Republicans, though I never liked nor supported Trump. I do favor Conservatism and would point to Dr.Milton Friedman as my example of sound policy. The question I was actually asking was whether you get your information about politics from the Republicans or the Democrats. There's no need to answer, it's obvious you get your information from the Republicans. A wiser approach would be to trust what neither side says about the other. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22504 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Since you're saying nothing of substance, just throwing out spurious claims, why do you keep talking?
Phat writes: But the dollar will go down. The value of the dollar goes up and down all the time, so presumably you're declaring that the dollar will go into a sustained decline. Why do you think this?
The future solution will likely be a combination of digital currency/crypto and solid backing. Gold is a proven solid backing. If currencies were backed by a mineral, say gold, then economies could grow no faster than the supply of the mineral. I once gave you exact figures showing that a world economy backed by gold could only become poorer and poorer because the world population is growing faster than the supply of gold. You never addressed this point. You never address any point. It's like you're imitating the worst type of creationist, one who never provides any data or answers any rebuttal but just drones on and on repeating his points ad infinitum.
The human value would be another possibility. Your fiat currencies will not stay afloat. Another bald statement. Why do you think this?
Before you lecture me on research, research the following. This is the height of irony given that nothing you say is accompanied by facts or rational arguments.
I questioned this in another thread, but I'll repeat it. Why do you care how much gold the Chinese have? We think they have around $120 billion of gold. Let's say it's much more and that they actually have $500 billion. So what? Explain why you think it matters. Show that you've done some research instead of just listening to the YouTube yokels you're hooked on. Please quit collecting garbage on the Internet and spreading it here.
You tell us? What are the conditions that might cause negative interest rates and why might it happen here? --Percy
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