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Author Topic:   Evolution != Atheism (re: the Rejection of Theism in Evolution)
Tal
Member (Idle past 5707 days)
Posts: 1140
From: Fort Bragg, NC
Joined: 12-29-2004


Message 76 of 178 (175002)
01-08-2005 9:41 AM
Reply to: Message 73 by PurpleYouko
01-07-2005 9:23 AM


Re: Evolution vs. creation
There are NO logical and scientifically backed arguements for the existence of God. Even (most) beleivers will agree that they cannot prove his existence. It is a matter of Faith, not scientific proof.
May I make an analogy?
For the past couple of days I've been debating whether the idea that the TOE and the Law(s) of (insert well known law here ie gravity/thermodynamics) are on equal footing when it comes the degree that each has been proven. I say they are not, others say they are.
Now, the people that say they are site a mountain of evidence that proves the TOE, or at least is the best running theory until it is improved upon or proved to be false.
Nonetheless, here is some of the mountain of evidence:
1. Radio Carbon Dating
2. Fossil Record
3. Potasium/Argon nuclear dating (very old rocks)
4. The measured movements of tectonic plates and continental drift
5. Wildlife evolution in places like the golapegos
6. Some bacterial experiment where single cells evolved to form a more complex community (didn't get much into that one, but those familiar know what I'm talking about)
Now, can we observe evolution taking place right now? No, (please no cemantics here) because it takes millions of years for things to evolve from one species to another. We weren't there when evolution happened. We can't see evolution happening. We can't touch evolution. We can't recreate evolution in a lab. But we've amassed this wealth of evidences that supports the TOE. Therefore, evolution happened.
Now, what if I said there is a mountain of evidence to support the idea of God?
1. Personal accounts of specifically answered prayer.
2. Divine protection in combat against all odds.
3. Accurate "prophecies" (Isreal becoming a nation again) that number in the hundreds.
4. Supernatural events that have happened to me and others (astral projection anyone?)
5. Bible Codes (subject to debate, but it does perk the interest)
6. Old Testament laws that deal with bacteria.
7. Old Testament accounts of accurate astronomy (Pleadies/Orion).
We weren't there when God created everything. We can't see God. We can't touch God. We can't recreate God in a lab. But we have massed a mountain of evidence to support that God exists. Therefore, according you guys that say evolution absolutey happened based on the mountain of evidence for it, even though you didn't see it happen; I say God absolutely exists based on the mountain of evidence for Him, even though I haven't seen Him.
And we debate the evidence for each. Are those prophecies really that accuarate, or a load of crap? Does the fossil record really show the evolution over time from, or is that just how they fell into place during the flood?
And we poke holes in each others evidences.
Ok...I have no idea where I'm going with this. I'm heading to the hooch.
This message has been edited by Tal, 01-08-2005 09:43 AM

Then I heard the voice of the Lord saying, "Whom shall I send? And who will go for us?" And I said, "Here am I. Send me!" Isaiah 6:8
No webpage found at provided URL: www.1st-vets.us

This message is a reply to:
 Message 73 by PurpleYouko, posted 01-07-2005 9:23 AM PurpleYouko has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 77 by Jazzns, posted 01-08-2005 9:55 AM Tal has replied
 Message 80 by crashfrog, posted 01-08-2005 11:09 AM Tal has not replied
 Message 81 by jar, posted 01-08-2005 11:18 AM Tal has not replied
 Message 82 by Rrhain, posted 01-08-2005 3:54 PM Tal has replied
 Message 83 by sidelined, posted 01-08-2005 6:37 PM Tal has not replied
 Message 85 by PurpleYouko, posted 01-09-2005 2:03 PM Tal has not replied

  
Jazzns
Member (Idle past 3942 days)
Posts: 2657
From: A Better America
Joined: 07-23-2004


Message 77 of 178 (175006)
01-08-2005 9:55 AM
Reply to: Message 76 by Tal
01-08-2005 9:41 AM


Drift
I am afraid that this topic is drifting. Lets please stick to the OP.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 9:41 AM Tal has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 78 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 10:04 AM Jazzns has not replied

  
Tal
Member (Idle past 5707 days)
Posts: 1140
From: Fort Bragg, NC
Joined: 12-29-2004


Message 78 of 178 (175009)
01-08-2005 10:04 AM
Reply to: Message 77 by Jazzns
01-08-2005 9:55 AM


Re: Drift
I believe my post was relevant and contributed to the topic.

Then I heard the voice of the Lord saying, "Whom shall I send? And who will go for us?" And I said, "Here am I. Send me!" Isaiah 6:8
No webpage found at provided URL: www.1st-vets.us

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Quetzal
Member (Idle past 5902 days)
Posts: 3228
Joined: 01-09-2002


Message 79 of 178 (175020)
01-08-2005 11:07 AM
Reply to: Message 78 by Tal
01-08-2005 10:04 AM


Re: Drift
Hey Tal,
I'm afraid I'd have to agree with Jazz here. Your post is great, but way off topic for this particular thread. In fact, it might make an excellent opening post on a new thread. Something like "Comparison of Evidence between Evolution and Theism" or words to that effect.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 78 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 10:04 AM Tal has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1497 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 80 of 178 (175021)
01-08-2005 11:09 AM
Reply to: Message 76 by Tal
01-08-2005 9:41 AM


No, (please no cemantics here) because it takes millions of years for things to evolve from one species to another.
No, it actually doesn't. We've observed hundreds of new species in the lab and in thw wild.
Under the right conditions you can actually get new species relatively quickly. Drastic morphological change in a long-lived organism (say, a vertebrate) does take a long time, but that's just a function of the time in between generations of the population.
We can't see evolution happening.
Yes, we can, literally. For instance:
Observed Instances of Speciation
I mean, you even mention a direct observation of microorganisms evolving into a different family, let alone a new species, in your item (6). But then in the very next sentence you deny that we've observed evolution. How does that make any sense to you?
Now, what if I said there is a mountain of evidence to support the idea of God?
Absolutely none of your evidence supports the idea of God. People recieve no answers to prayer that random chance can't explain. We figured out astronomy and how to protect against illness without God's help; why couldn't the Old Testament writers have done the same? And the Bible Codes have no legitimate mathematical basis. It turns out that you can find the exact same codes in any book - indeed, any string of random letters - of sufficient length. And no "supernatural" occurence has ever been substantiated in anything approaching controlled conditions.
I say God absolutely exists based on the mountain of evidence for Him, even though I haven't seen Him.
The problem is that "God" - specifically, "Christian God" - is not the simplest explanation for these things. The simplest explanation is still "people have a known psychological bias that leads them to misapprehend the significance of events, and from this they mistakenly believe that when lucky things happen to them, they're more than just fortunate; an actual God intervened on their behalf."

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 9:41 AM Tal has not replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 81 of 178 (175022)
01-08-2005 11:18 AM
Reply to: Message 76 by Tal
01-08-2005 9:41 AM


Re: Evolution vs. creation
What possible connection is there between Evolution and a belief or non-belief in GOD? Why do you present the two as though they were related, that you must believe in one or the other?

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 9:41 AM Tal has not replied

  
Rrhain
Member
Posts: 6351
From: San Diego, CA, USA
Joined: 05-03-2003


Message 82 of 178 (175063)
01-08-2005 3:54 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Tal
01-08-2005 9:41 AM


Re: Evolution vs. creation
Tal writes:
quote:
Now, can we observe evolution taking place right now?
Yes. Here's an experiment you can do in the privacy of your own bio lab. It isn't very expensive and doesn't require very many materials.
Take a single E. coli bacterium of K-type. This means the bacterium is susceptible to T4 phage. Let this bacterium reproduce until it forms a lawn. Then, infect the lawn with T4 phage.
What do we expect to happen? That's right, plaques should start to form and, eventually, the entire lawn will die. After all, every single bacterium in the lawn is descended from a single ancestor, so if the ancestor is susceptible, then all the offspring should be susceptible, too.
But what we actually see is that some colonies of bacteria in the lawn are not affected by the phage.
How can this be? Again, the entire lawn is descended from a single ancestor. They should all behave identically. If one is susceptible, then they're all susceptible. If one is immune, then they're all immune. This can't be an example of "adaptation" because if one could do it, they all could do it.
But since there is a discrepancy, we are left with only one conclusion: The bacteria evolved. There must be a genetic difference between the bacteria that are surviving and those that died.
Indeed, we call the new bacteria K-4 because they are immune to T4 phage.
But we're not done. Take a single K-4 bacterium and repeat the process: Let it reproduce to form a lawn and then infect the lawn with T4 phage.
What do we expect to happen? That's right: Absolutely nothing. All of the bacteria are descended from a single ancestor that is immune to T4 phage. Therefore, they all should survive and we shouldn't see any plaques form.
But we do. Plaques do, indeed start to form. How can this be? Again, all the bacteria in the lawn are descended from a single ancestor that was immune to T4 phage, so they should all behave identically. If one is immune, then all are immune. There must be something else going on.
Something evolved, but the question is what. What evolved? Could it be the bacteria experiencing a reversion mutation back to K-type? No, that can't be it. Suppose any given bacteria did revert back to wild. It is surrounded by K-4 type who are immune to T4 phage. As soon as the lawn is infected, those few bacteria will die and immediately be replaced by the offspring of the immune K-4 bacteria. We would never see any plaques forming because the immune bacteria keep filling in any holes that appear.
So if it isn't the bacteria that evolved, it must be the phage. And, indeed, we call the new phage T4h as it has evolved a new host specificity.
There is a similar experiment where you take bacteria that have had their lactose operons removed and they evolve to be able to digest lactose again.
You might want to look up the information regarding the development of bacteria capable of digesting nylon oligimers. It's the result of a single frame-shift mutation.
This is evolution. And please don't be disingenuous and claim that it's still a bacterium. Of course it's a bacterium. Evolution doesn't go from bacterium to ostrich in one step. If you could show that happening, you would completely overthrow our understanding of how life diversified and would probably win a Nobel Prize and could write your own ticket for the rest of your life. I am simply pointing out the proof of concept: Life changes from generation to generation.
If 1 + 1 = 2, why can't 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 10? We've seen speciation happen both in the lab and in the wild, but those experiments require more equipment and are much more sophisticated.
quote:
because it takes millions of years for things to evolve from one species to another.
No, it doesn't:
Observed Instances of Speciation
Some More Observed Speciation Events
quote:
Now, what if I said there is a mountain of evidence to support the idea of God?
1. Personal accounts of specifically answered prayer.
Anecdotal, unverifiable, unreproducible.
Therefore, not evidence.
quote:
2. Divine protection in combat against all odds.
Anecdotal, unverifiable, unreproducible.
Therefore, not evidence.
quote:
3. Accurate "prophecies" (Isreal becoming a nation again) that number in the hundreds.
Overwhelmed by the failed prophecies that number in the thousands. The biggest one being that the world was supposed to end over 2000 years ago (Book of Daniel) and again nearly 2000 years ago (Gospels).
Thus, this renders all other "prophecies" that supposedly came true (like Israel becoming a nation again) null and void.
That is, if I tell you that you're going to win the lottery and that the world is going to end before the end of the year and then the world doesn't end and you win the lottery next year, then I do not have a fulfilled prophecy regarding you winning the lottery. My claim that the world was going to end puts a timeline on your lottery winning. It would need to happen by the end of the year because the world was going to end and there would be no next year.
The failure of the world to end means your winning of the lottery means nothing.
Therefore, we wind up with absolutely no prophecies ever being fulfilled.
Then again, the prophecies that are usually touted as having been fulfilled, when examined, turn out to be so nebulous and vague that they cannot be reasonably declared to be prophecies and in a huge number of instances, actually turn out to be unfulfilled.
Therefore, no evidence.
quote:
4. Supernatural events that have happened to me and others (astral projection anyone?)
Anecdotal, unverifiable, unreproducible.
Therefore, not evidence.
quote:
5. Bible Codes (subject to debate, but it does perk the interest)
Disproven. Every single large text contains this as a mathematical artifact.
Assassinations Foretold in Moby Dick
And, as it turns out, Drosnin had to doctor his own methodology in order to get as many "hits" as he claimed, including editing the scripture he was using.
Not evidence.
quote:
6. Old Testament laws that deal with bacteria.
Source, please? Do not confuse sanitary precautions with understanding of the cause of disease.
quote:
7. Old Testament accounts of accurate astronomy (Pleadies/Orion).
Irrelevant. You can see the Pleiades with the naked eye. They are often called the "Littlest Dipper" because you can easily make out six of the seven major stars. The Greeks even had a myth as to why the seventh was so much dimmer. Do you seriously think they did that out of divine revelation? Or is it simply because all you need to do is go outside and look up?
Orion is a constellation.
There is no actual astronomical material in the Bible regarding these other than the claim that the Pleiades is a star cluster and Orion is a constellation.
Therefore, not evidence.
Hmmm...seems you haven't actually come up with any evidence at all. Just a lot of anecdotes and even claims that don't claim what you claim they claim.
quote:
We weren't there when God created everything.
No, but the universe was. We can therefore look at the universe and see what it has to say about the subject. We won't get the absolute, complete picture down to the last atom, but it's amazing what you can find out simply by examining the leftovers.
quote:
Are those prophecies really that accuarate, or a load of crap?
Yes. It's because they aren't prophecies and they aren't accurate.
quote:
Does the fossil record really show the evolution over time from, or is that just how they fell into place during the flood?
Simple experiment to prove that the fossils could not be the result of a flood:
Buy a box of cereal. Open up the box and pull the bag out but don't open up the bag.
What do you see?
All the big pieces are at the top and all the little pieces and dust are at the bottom. Do you think it's because the manufacturer deliberately did it that way? Of course not. The package settled on its way to the store and this is out everything sorted itself out. The largest pieces are at the top because, being large, they pack together tightly and have very little room to move. The smaller pieces, being able to fit between the gaps left by the bigger pieces, fall due to the force of gravity to a lower state. And the dust, being able to fit through anything, falls down to the lowest state.
How to test? Turn the bag upside down, put it back in the box carefully, and gently shake the box to agitate. After a few minutes, pull the bag back out of the box and notice that, once again, all the big pieces are on top and all of the little pieces and dust are on the bottom.
Therefore, we see that when things are left to sort themselves on their own, they sort themselves by size: Biggest ones on top, tiniest ones on the bottom.
If the fossil record were the result of a flood, then we should expect to see one of two possible outcomes: A complete jumble of fossils with absolutely no sorting or a sorting by size with the biggest organisms on top and the smallest on the bottom.
Instead, we don't see either pattern. Instead, we see completely accurate layers of a single type of organism. These layers end up being accurate world wide. We never see this organism appear in a layer below that organism. It's always the other way around...even though if they were "hydrodynamically sorted," they should appear the other way around given the way physics works as we just showed.
Therefore, using nothing more than a cereal box, we have proven that the fossil record cannot be a result of a global flood.
quote:
And we poke holes in each others evidences.
Incorrect. Instead, you show you don't understand what evidence is.

Rrhain
WWJD? JWRTFM!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 9:41 AM Tal has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 88 by Tal, posted 01-11-2005 9:20 AM Rrhain has replied

  
sidelined
Member (Idle past 5938 days)
Posts: 3435
From: Edmonton Alberta Canada
Joined: 08-30-2003


Message 83 of 178 (175083)
01-08-2005 6:37 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Tal
01-08-2005 9:41 AM


Re: Evolution vs. creation
Tal
Now, what if I said there is a mountain of evidence to support the idea of God?
1. Personal accounts of specifically answered prayer.
2. Divine protection in combat against all odds.
3. Accurate "prophecies" (Isreal becoming a nation again) that number in the hundreds.
4. Supernatural events that have happened to me and others (astral projection anyone?)
5. Bible Codes (subject to debate, but it does perk the interest)
6. Old Testament laws that deal with bacteria.
7. Old Testament accounts of accurate astronomy (Pleadies/Orion).
{1}How do you verify a personal account of answered prayer to eliminate bias and human error?
{2}You are in Baghdad.Remove your helmet,kevlar and weapon then see if you can get CNN to film your attempt to walk through open combat with only god providing divine protection against all odds. Do you suppose there is a slight chance of injury on your part?
{3}Why do you not see if you can bring forth some arguements concerning prophecy in the Criteria for Prophecy topic if you consider these to be accurate?
{4}Astral projection? Surely you jest! How about we test such a claim and see if you can bring anything to the table?
{5}Bible codes? How about you start a thread on this and see how long before it is shredded for the crap it is?
{6}This is interesting.Can you show where they are actually aware that the bacteria are a part of their understanding of hygeine?
{7} The Pleiades and Orion? There is this verse from Job
Canst thou bind the sweet influences of Pleiades, or loose the bands of Orion?
So please tell us how this amounts to accuracy in astronomy?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 76 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 9:41 AM Tal has not replied

  
Tal
Member (Idle past 5707 days)
Posts: 1140
From: Fort Bragg, NC
Joined: 12-29-2004


Message 84 of 178 (175189)
01-09-2005 10:12 AM


I will try to get to each of your replies. However, if I answered one of sidelines questions/issues in a reply to Rraihn, then I won't answer it again for sideline.
I'll start with a response to Rrhain when I get back, as it appears he put the most time into a reply.

Then I heard the voice of the Lord saying, "Whom shall I send? And who will go for us?" And I said, "Here am I. Send me!" Isaiah 6:8
No webpage found at provided URL: www.1st-vets.us

Replies to this message:
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PurpleYouko
Member
Posts: 714
From: Columbia Missouri
Joined: 11-11-2004


Message 85 of 178 (175236)
01-09-2005 2:03 PM
Reply to: Message 76 by Tal
01-08-2005 9:41 AM


Re: Evolution vs. creation
Hi Tal
I see that others have responded to you before I got around to it.
The only comment that I would like to add is..
4. Supernatural events that have happened to me and others (astral projection anyone?)
I don't want to get into a discussion of these supernatural events (been there. done that. See the 'faith and beleif' thread) but even given that such supernatural events could or did happen, it still doesn't prove a single thing about the existence or non existence of God.
Again. No Proof!
PY

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 Message 76 by Tal, posted 01-08-2005 9:41 AM Tal has not replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5850 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 86 of 178 (175242)
01-09-2005 2:11 PM
Reply to: Message 84 by Tal
01-09-2005 10:12 AM


I agree that Rrhain's was the most comprehensive address of your points. I would add one more thing to his criticism and you can address it within your response to him.
As far as prophecies go, and especially your specific example of Israel, in addition to the problem of vagueness and generalizing (to keep a failed prophecy alive which is what Rrhain pointed out) there is also the problem of the self-fulfilling prophecy.
Israel is being built by people that specifically want to see it rebuilt because of their faith in that prophecy. If a gypsy fortune teller tells me I am going to get an ice cream sundae next week, do I chalk one up to her being visionary when I then go out and buy an ice cream sundae?
If one wants to believe in prophecies then that is fine, but a person making something happen is not miraculous and hardly proving a prophecy.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
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PurpleYouko
Member
Posts: 714
From: Columbia Missouri
Joined: 11-11-2004


Message 87 of 178 (175444)
01-10-2005 9:22 AM
Reply to: Message 75 by Rrhain
01-08-2005 5:12 AM


Re: Evolution vs. creation
Rrhain writes:
quote:
quote:
quote:
Excuse me? I'm not the one making the claim. That's you. Burden of proof is always on the one making the claim.
My only claim here was that the only argument for the existence of God at all was that everythinh must have been created.
And it is now your responsibility to justify that claim. Since when was it agreed that such was the case? Who said god had to create the universe? Why can't god have found the universe? Why can't god be the universe?
Come on! You could at least include my whole response, which continued something like.
OK I will retract that and replace it with this.
Who said God had to create the universe?
DUH! Creationists! I don't see any 'foundists' movements out there. Unless you know of any that is.
If God found the universe then this discussion is pretty much moot since the whole point is to rationalize a beleif in both creation (ie. God) and evolution. That scenario would make him some kind of advanced alien or something and not a true God at all. It would then become a case for asking by what right is he messing with our universe anyway? Since he didn't actually create it.
Why can't God be the universe?
A kind of universal consciousness that developed as the Universe formed? That is an interesting concept and could even make some sense. I would grant you that were this the real case then my problem with conflicting views would be entirely nulified. However I seriously doubt that Creationists would accept that it is.
But what logical reason is there not to believe? It has to go both ways.
I don't really see it that way.
In a hypothetical situation where a child is brought up to analyze everything (s)he sees, hears, smells and draw logical scientific conclusions about it without ever hearing of religion then it is highly unlikely that that child is ever going to spontaineously start to beleive in something that has no reason to exist, just for the heck of it.
You don't need a reason not to beleive but you do need one to beleive as it is an afirmative action. Not beleiving is an inaction thus requiring no motive.
PY

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 93 by Rrhain, posted 01-13-2005 2:22 AM PurpleYouko has replied

  
Tal
Member (Idle past 5707 days)
Posts: 1140
From: Fort Bragg, NC
Joined: 12-29-2004


Message 88 of 178 (175796)
01-11-2005 9:20 AM
Reply to: Message 82 by Rrhain
01-08-2005 3:54 PM


Re: Evolution vs. creation
Disproven. Every single large text contains this as a mathematical artifact. Assassinations Foretold in Moby Dick
I couldn't get your Moby Dick link to open, however I'm fairly certain it is out of date. Can you provide me another link so we can see what it says and what the odds of the statement appearing in random text?
Here are some odds of the codes that are found in Isaiah 53 alone.
As you can see, there are dozens of ELSs from the Isaiah 53 cluster that are each less likely to appear by chance than the most likely Hanukah ELS. What is immediately evident is that none of the Hanukah ELSs are all that unusual. On the other hand, there are four Isaiah 53 ELSs that each have odds less than 1 in 1 million of crossing a randomly selected 1,000-letter long text. None of the Hanukah ELSs are anywhere near as unusual as the top ranked Isaiah 53 ELSs. The most unlikely Hanukah ELS has odds of 1 in 453 of appearing by chance.
Furthermore, distrust is high among skeptics. So we went far beyond what is reasonable in adjusting our calculations. In calculating the above odds, we assumed that for every word we did find as an ELS that we (or Rambsel/Jeffrey) actually had to look for 25 different comparable ELSs before we found the one we documented. That means that our probability calculation reflects the effects of looking for 10,000 different words about Christ in order to find the 400 distinct words we did locate as ELSs. The point is that there aren't that many different Hebrew words about the topic of Jesus of Nazareth. That is why we can conclude the odds of chance appearance are LESS THAN the 1 in 225,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000 quoted in the above chart, and that the Isaiah 53 cluster was intentionally embedded in the text.
Link
added spaces to huge number in last quotebox to fix page width - The Queen
This message has been edited by AdminAsgara, 01-11-2005 17:15 AM

Then I heard the voice of the Lord saying, "Whom shall I send? And who will go for us?" And I said, "Here am I. Send me!" Isaiah 6:8
No webpage found at provided URL: www.1st-vets.us

This message is a reply to:
 Message 82 by Rrhain, posted 01-08-2005 3:54 PM Rrhain has replied

Replies to this message:
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contracycle
Inactive Member


Message 89 of 178 (175829)
01-11-2005 11:07 AM


In their answering skeptics section:
quote:
Bible Code Digest's Use of "Statistical Significance" is Invalid and Misleading
Here the skeptics would be resorting to a narrow technicality that they are trying to incorrectly generalize to all situations. It's more than a bit like a crafty lawyer who gets a hardened criminal off the hook by using a legal technicality. Everyone knows the guy is guilty, but he gets let off anyway.
So what kind of technicality are we talking about? Because we have made a few simplifying assumptions, it is true that the probability we have calculated is not exact. What they won't tell you, however, is that the probability doesn't need to be exact, because all we really need to know is whether the cluster is statistically significant. If your standard of significance is odds of 1 in 1,000 and you can show that something has odds less than 1 in 1,000,000, you have shown its significance. It doesn't matter that we can't tell you exactly what the odds are as long as we can show that the odds are far less than 1 in 1,000,000.
Ahuh.
So, this is like a basic error of legal procedure? Then its invalid, isn't it? Making some emotional appeal to supercedding the law is irrleevant and outright manipulatory.

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crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1497 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 90 of 178 (175832)
01-11-2005 11:14 AM
Reply to: Message 89 by contracycle
01-11-2005 11:07 AM


Well, the question would be "what's their significance value"? I would guess it's pretty frickin' high, given that you can find almost any arrangement of letters at all in a book of sufficient length. In fact I dare say that the significance value, which they do not apparently share, is much, much higher than the odds of any string they present.

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