Hi, Modulous.
Since no one actually saw anyone pull the trigger, I would say that all five scenarios are equally likely.
Well, since (6) involves a supernatural entity for which there is no verifiable evidence (and unicorns make me feel good), I think that is the one to which we give a preference.
Edited to correct a couple of typos, one serious.
This message has been edited by Chiroptera, 12-Mar-2006 10:36 PM
"Intellectually, scientifically, even artistically, fundamentalism -- biblical literalism -- is a road to nowhere, because it insists on fidelity to revealed truths that are not true." -- Katha Pollitt