holmes writes:
C) We have a new (and belated) Spring offensive in Afghanistan, including incursions into Pakistan, ultimately resulting in the capture/death of Osama Bin Laden... and everyone forgets Iraq happened, much less that anything bad was done in pursuit of waging that war.
I'm banking on C happening, and I am sure Bush is too, given the number of news announcements on a "long planned" spring offensive in Afghanistan... and some odd (and belated) badmouthing of Pakistan.
Well, if I were your local garden flavor Taliban commander, I would counter the Spring Offensive by striking a deal with the local warlords and meld in with the farmers during their spring planting of the poppy fields. In addition, I would send squads into the cities, lay low and wait. If I had a wicked sense of humor I would invite feydayen fighers from Syria, Jordan, Pakistan and Iran to die gloriously in battle with the "infidels". This would give the US military a body count and would make them believe that they had actually accomplished something. Meanwhile, Osama is squirreled away deep inside Pakistan until the Spring Offensive is over. By summer, it would be "back to the business at hand."
As a matter of fact, the Taliban would be wise to coordinate a summer counter-offensive with Al Quada attacks in Iraq during power transfer to a new and shaky Iraqi government and really embarrass Bush.
In Vietnam, it was called the "Tet Offensive". The Taliban and Al Quada don't have to win militarily. They just have to bend the political will of American voters during an election year.
The newly elected government of Afghanistan won't amount to a hill of beans until they can extend their influence past the ciy limits of Kabaul. Until then, they are just a "city-state" in the classic Greek sense of the word.
(:raig
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