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Author Topic:   Foundations of ID
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 136 of 213 (206522)
05-09-2005 2:59 PM
Reply to: Message 134 by Jerry Don Bauer
05-09-2005 7:01 AM


Re: the point
Why don't you take this a step further, precisely point out what my major mathematical error is, actually address the "error due to one false assumption in your [my-insertion mine] method" and we can discuss it.
Perhaps here or in the thread you deserted (and I recently bumped for you), you can point out the understood mechanisms, or even proposed mechanisms, such that you know how to build a mathematical model of the chemistry.
I have asked and am yet waiting a reply. In my experience we must accurately understand a system, meaning its full chemical environment, before modelling the system.
And if we have a model which ends in a result which is not supported by the evidence, we realize that our mathematical model is not accurate enough.
Now you can state that your raw calculations of barebone atomic assembly into complete complex hydrocarbons reveal a probability of success that seems unlikely to occur in any practical sense. But that pretty much means your proposed mechanism is wrong (barebone assembly is not all there is and so your model is inaccurate),
Why can't it be that you are simply not using the right model?
Okay and then for the follow up, could you please show me the calculation which shows how the biomolecule was engineered? We know it couldn't just be a guy assembling the raw materials in a beaker and shaking it up, that is what your calculations purport to show. So what else did he do to adjust those mathematical figures so that assembly waas probable?

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 134 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-09-2005 7:01 AM Jerry Don Bauer has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 137 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-09-2005 4:06 PM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 142 of 213 (206662)
05-10-2005 3:31 AM
Reply to: Message 137 by Jerry Don Bauer
05-09-2005 4:06 PM


Re: the point
To refresh your memory, here is the link to your post. In it you describe what you used to mathematically model the formation of biomolecules and so statistically prove its "impossibility" or "improbability".
At the bottom of that post you will find an indication that I replied to it. Or you could even look at your list of posts and discover that a reply to that post has been waiting for some time. In my reply I question your modeling capabilities without reference to chemical environment.
Remember, we started talking and I said I was educated in chemistry and had worked on modeling chemical behavior and you said that was good because you do too? Lets return to the idea of two guys that have a chemistry background and are practiced in modeling chemical systems, discussing the modeling of abiogenesis in a statistical way.
I am wondering how you model a system without knowledge of all possible mechanisms that would have an effect on it. Or conversely, since you seem to be claiming statistical models of formation do not need to take into account environment as environment is irrelevant, I would like you to explain how any directed process would change the odds on abiogenesis occuring.
As two guys with a chemical background and experience in modeling, I'm sure you understand what I am talking about now... right?
This message has been edited by holmes, 05-10-2005 03:33 AM

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 137 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-09-2005 4:06 PM Jerry Don Bauer has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 143 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-10-2005 4:12 AM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 144 of 213 (206672)
05-10-2005 5:00 AM
Reply to: Message 143 by Jerry Don Bauer
05-10-2005 4:12 AM


Re: the point
A moderator had to get involved to calm you down a bit.
No, a moderator informed me that a previously acceptable, or tolerated, level of sarcasm was no longer going to be allowed. It did not have anything to do with whether I was "excited" or not.
I have a habit of throwing in jibes now and then for color, a bad habit which I picked up in high school and have been trying to control ever since. You'll note I thanked the moderator and said I would comply.
Considering your attitude, coupled with the fact that you are not making a lick of sense about anything I said in the post you linked to (I don't think you understood the chemistry I posted at all). I think I'll pass at further conversations with you.
Well I am not acting excited now, so that shouldn't be an issue. And if you think I was not making a lick of sense regarding what you had previously said, lets chalk it up to my misunderstanding of what you had said, and start fresh.
You say you can calculate the probability of a chemical compound forming, and that probability calculation excludes natural (undirected) mechanisms from having formed the compound. This is correct so far right? And if not, exactly what statistical modeling are you claiming to have performed such as to exclude natural processes?

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 143 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-10-2005 4:12 AM Jerry Don Bauer has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 145 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-10-2005 5:45 AM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 146 of 213 (206714)
05-10-2005 9:16 AM
Reply to: Message 145 by Jerry Don Bauer
05-10-2005 5:45 AM


Re: the point
would you please cut and paste from my posts (either the one you linked to or others) where I talked about building a chemical model based on mathematics to show design?
From your post which initially suggested some sort of defense for a statistical model...
{quote you cite in order to respond:
Separately from that: The calculations I am refering to are those that discuss the probability of the first life forms arising by chance. I have never seen these done in a way that isn't meaningless.}
Really. Well, I will be glad to walk you through a calculation in that area I believe to be meaningful.
Chemical reactions operate quite differently than calculating the odds of say, winning a lottery.
For two atoms to bond (join together into a molecule) they must be within an interacting neighborhood. In fact, in order for two atoms to react together, they must be in the area of about 100 picometers (10 to the -10 power meters) in distance from one another.
The universe is big. And atoms must be moving in order to come into the neighborhood of another atom. The faster they are moving, the more opportunities they have to form a bond.
It goes on from there but to my mind had already raised a question. This was my response:
I have a chemistry background and more than that a background that includes having modeled chemical reactions.
I must say I am uncertain where you have gotten your numbers from. It is not like the universe is a giant stew with everything engaging in easily calculatable random reactions. Chemicals form environments which actually make harder or easier future chemical reactions.
It is not impossible that any two chemicals WILL come together and start interacting, once that happens, especially under the crush of gravity which will happen due to gathering of mass, that makes certain future interactions more likely, and some less likely.
I have not seen where you have taken into account the possibility of catalytic environments which would promote biomolecules from forming. Citing Miller is especially interesting as he also did not examine all possible environments.
You could perhaps dispell my doubts by giving an example of your calculations regarding such a formation if it occured in a chiral clay at the bottom of the ocean, near a vent with little oxygen but high temperatures and high pressures, as opposed to inside a meteorite with hydrocarbons trapped within small inner chambers warmed and cooled by passage near a star, as opposed to free floating hydrocarbons in an atmosphere.
I hope you would agree the difference in probability would be significant.
Your responded as follows...
Cool. Me too. We'll get along fine...
I got my numbers straight from biochemistry knowing the way that amino acids assemble themselves via electrical charge from a racemic mixture of AAs being held as racemic via chemical equilibrium as described by Le Chatlier's Principle. That's the math. You might want to reread the piece. If you think the math is wrong, tackle it and show it to be wrong. I'll be glad to back up and go another avenue if you do...
I was not calculating molecules forming on clay. There is no evidence this occurs in a manner that would form complex proteins of the type that sustain life to begin with. But this wouldn't affect anything, as those particular AAs would still have the same probabilities of formation no matter whether it was on clay or in a primeval ooze.
And don't forget Gibb's free energy and how that forbids the complex organic molecules we are discussing from forming spontaneously. We need stay in science and out of pseudo-science.
You have the second law of thermodynamics working against you and you will lose every time when that happens.
The rest is pretty much history, but the above is all we need to get back on track.
How do you accurately calculate probabilities of formation if you do not know all possible environments it may occur within? And if environment is irrelevant to such calculations, what could a creator do that would make the necessary reaction more probable?
I think my questions are very clear at this point, including the fact that at least initially you were suggesting you did such calculations and were interested in discussing how you did them. Please answer the questions.
Thank you.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 145 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-10-2005 5:45 AM Jerry Don Bauer has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 148 by Jazzns, posted 05-10-2005 10:49 AM Silent H has not replied
 Message 149 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-10-2005 7:40 PM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 152 of 213 (206955)
05-11-2005 6:20 AM
Reply to: Message 149 by Jerry Don Bauer
05-10-2005 7:40 PM


I get my numbers from past research and the literature, of course, and this is fairly old science. And remember what the subject was, the polymerization of proteins from amino acids of the type that comprise organisms.
This occurs through condensation reactions. Also as I have preciously stated, it is not difficult to calculate enthalpy change as dipeptides form from amino acids. This has been done by Hutchens [1] and is shown to be 5-8 kcal/mole.
Technically I would debate both of the above paragraphs. The nature of the reactions as the occur in situ may be very different than how we have to study them in the lab. But I'll skip addressing some of the specifics of how they work in the lab above to deal with the more obvious issues (and the ones I was driving at) in the comments below...
Obviously, work has to be done on this system for a polypeptide to form and in organisms, this work is provided by the organism. But since we are talking about pre-biotic conditions, where did this work come from?
Yes, the question of where did this work come from is a valid question. The valid answer is for scientists to explore various conditions, environmental conditions, which would have provided the necessary work. I am unsure if it must specifically be peptides or if there could have been precursors to that, but the idea is the same.
So, you seem to be claiming that you have found out where the work came from. Okay, where? Or if it is just that you have ruled out all in situ possibilities, I would like to see those example calculations, and the bases for them.
Telling me we know of lab experiments that did not work, or only a certain selection which did work but do not mirror possible environmental conditions is not enough.
Work must be performed on these systems in order that more complex molecules can form to support life. This is just common sense to one who has studied chemistry. They do not form by Darwinian magic.
First, I do not know what Darwinian magic is, but perhaps you can compare that to Designer magic? As far as I can tell they are both concepts which describe an as yet unknown or undefined process which we are seeking... correct? Only the latter involves two unknown components, while the first involves only one. Occam's razor eliminates the latter.
Second, while work must be done, I am uncertain why that excludes natural (unintelligent) systems from providing the work? Hydrocarbons trapped within a "plastic" membrane and exposed to solar or geothermal energy, would be having work done on them, right? And that could include multiple iterations of condensation reactions, almost like a reflux apparatus, right?
Oh by the way, at the beginning you stated that you were not talking about mathematical models. Where did you generate the statistical results of probabilities of formations then? That would have to be from a model as far as I understand.
Enthalpies and such of formation are not models, that is true, but probabilities are model based.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 149 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-10-2005 7:40 PM Jerry Don Bauer has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 153 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-11-2005 7:25 AM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 155 of 213 (207017)
05-11-2005 9:03 AM
Reply to: Message 154 by Modulous
05-11-2005 8:47 AM


Thank you modulous, you are asking the exact same question that I am. Perhaps together we will get an answer.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 154 by Modulous, posted 05-11-2005 8:47 AM Modulous has not replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 160 of 213 (207044)
05-11-2005 9:46 AM
Reply to: Message 153 by Jerry Don Bauer
05-11-2005 7:25 AM


They have. Think of Miller for one.
Miller is definitely an example. And there are more specific examples. The point is that they are hardly exhaustive of the potential ranges of chemicals/environmental conditions/and time required for products to form.
Thus appealing to the failed experiments do not get us closer to knowing what the actual probabilities of formation are, other than they are not high under the few conditions tested.
Since the laws of chemistry are against chance formation of these complex molecules that make us up, what are the other possibilities, perhaps design by something? How credible would we be to consider this as an option? I mean it certainly works for weed eaters and tables.
But the laws of chemistry are NOT against the chance formation of these complex molecules. They are against the chance formation UNDER SPECIFIC KNOWN conditions. The probabilities are not known given many volumes of conditions.
While someone appearing and creating these things is a possibility, there are still unexhausted avenues of formation from natural mechanisms. Thus jumping to the more complex answer is a bit premature.
As far as weed eaters and tables go, unlike life they do not reproduce themselves, and they both have functions beyond themselves. Living things reproduce and change over generations (even if you don't believe in speciation I assume you recognize this fact), and are useful for themeselves and have no inherent function for someone else.
I didn't give any experiments that didn't work. They worked just fine and I was just sharing the results of them with you.
This is a tad disengenuous don't you think? The experiments may have worked as experimentd, but what they did not work as is environments where probability of formation were heightened. That is what we were discussing after all.
Darwinian magic: Elephants magically 'poof' out of amoebas; ape-like critters start giving birth to men in violation of the species definitions in science; pakicetus carves his legs into flippers, poofs up to a giant 100 times as big as he was, bellies off into the ocean and morphs into a whale; reptiloid therapsids supernaturally shove their jaw-bones up into their ears and shoot etherally into mammals.
Well I don't know anyone advocating that explanation except for you. Especially as you have used magic within the definition of magic. What do you mean by magic?
I mean this seems all very strange that you'd keep using "magic" and "supernatural" in any of your descriptions as if it is something that Darwin appealed to, or that evolutionary theory espouses.
Designer magic: I do understand that some may view quantum mechanics as magic, but I can assure you it is really science.
I'm sorry, are you suggesting some quantum mechanical manifestation is responsible for abiogenesis and speciation?
Occam shaves for my side, I'm afraid. Begin with an amoeba, end at a man (if you like), use the process described above in the Darwinian magic paragraph, spell out those poofs a couple of billion times as we consider all the speciations it would have taken to get men from amoebas. A rather complicated scenario, don't you think?
Yeah that would be complicated, but what has that got to do with evolutionary theory? Here's what I learned about evo theory:
1) We can see that living organisms change during reproduction from one generation to the next,
2) Certain conditions can affect the ability for members of a generation to breed and so have characteristics pass to the next generation,
3) There does not appear to be any barrier for change in an entire population given time and consistent conditions,
4) We see fossil evidence of previous life starting as simple and moving to more complexity with time,
5) We have no evidence of an entity which lived back then directly interfering with the natural reproductive cycles.
Given those facts, it is rather simple to argue that the same generational cycles we see today, produced the speciation which we have seen over time, rather than positing that an unknown entity we have no evidence of nor explanation for having designed each species and thus intentionally create the speciation.
Which is simpler, all of that, or that a designer designed man pretty much as he is today?
Yes, your strawman is more complex than the oversimplified version of your own theory and thus Occam would pick that. However as I noted above, Occam would accept the evolutionary theory over one of postulated designer creating unknown numbers of designs.
Although I would have to ask, even in your simplified version, why the designer created so many manlike things, and how you can tell the difference between a manlike thing he created which did become us, and a manlike thing he created which didn't?
If this is credible you are going to have to come up with some scenarios that could form a homochiral protein from amino acids. If you can't, it's just a daydream.
No, its an unknown. Before they showed that urea could be produced through nonbiological means it was believed that only living bodies could produce it. That is a rather commonly taught example in chemistry, cautioning chemists from making the mistake that unknown mechanism means impossible mechanism.
And of course what this means is that there is more work to be done before drawing any conclusions.
On the flipside perhaps you can come up with a scenario regarding the formation of your designer, as well as its ability to interact with stages of life across billions of years and over large geographic areas without leaving a trace beyond the pristine appearance of a new life form.
La Chateliers principle is a law of chemistry that forbids the type of reactions we were discussing. What do you think could have happened in nature to overcome both this principle and the second law of thermodynamics?
Okay, I have absolutely no idea how what you just said actually impacts what I just said. You threw in a name and a thermodynamic law, and simply asserted they go against the reactions I was talking about... how and why? Actually unpack your argument.
As far as I can tell you simple stated two things which control reactions, and asserted they stand against an as yet unknown reaction from occuring.
And again, your reference to the 2nd law is troublesome to me. That applies to closed systems. In the specific case I mentioned the sun and earth would have been pouring in energy, which could be absorbed and stored within chemical cycles.
Well, if you want to consider probability math as a model, I suppose you can. We just use the term differently.
Probability calculation requires a model, right? How else can you calculate odds unless you have a model of how X functions?

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 153 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-11-2005 7:25 AM Jerry Don Bauer has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 164 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-11-2005 10:23 AM Silent H has replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 161 of 213 (207046)
05-11-2005 9:49 AM
Reply to: Message 156 by Modulous
05-11-2005 9:05 AM


Re: the point
If you believe that an amoeba transforming into elephant is descent with modification and that you can attack the argument in such a manner then you should sign up fro the army job...you have a skill at constructing very easily killed straw men.
A little long on the build up, but pretty funny. I may steal that for later use.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 156 by Modulous, posted 05-11-2005 9:05 AM Modulous has not replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 175 of 213 (207315)
05-12-2005 5:29 AM
Reply to: Message 164 by Jerry Don Bauer
05-11-2005 10:23 AM


You are just going to have to start naming these conditions. I'm afraid your insistence there ARE conditions is not a very strong argument. What are they?
I challenge you to find where I said, much less insisted, that there ARE conditions under which abiogenesis has a high probability. I think you will find that what I actually said is that it is unknown whether there are conditions under which abiogenesis has a high probability.
This is opposite from your claim of knowledge which is that there is NO possible condition under which abiogenesis has a high probability. If there is anyone who must supply a proof then, it is you.
All I have to do to prove my point is ask you to show that all the possible environmental conditions have been researched. They haven't, thus I am correct and there are other routes to still be investigated.
There are no conditions where the probabilities are heightened. What would those be? You guys seem to want to ignore the obvious here.
Please show how you know that there are no conditions which would heighten the probability. The fact that you don't know, or I don't know, or all the scientists in the world at this present time don't know of such conditions, does not allow one to conclude that there are no such conditions.
Remember the Urea experiment. Until that time it was considered impossible. And if you had asked the scientist who discovered the method just a day before he discovered it, absolutely no one would have known under what conditions Urea would have a high probability of forming except by biological organisms due to their "special nature". One day later and we had an answer.
That's the point of being a scientist and exploration, looking where we do not as yet have a concrete explanation.
But I want to challenge you further on this. You say life chemicals were "designed", but are also arguing there are no conditions under which these chemicals can combine. So how did the designer design the molecules?
And you think that is a simpler concept than just suggesting the organism was designed?
You don't seem to understand Occam's razor. It is not which is the simpler stated concept, it is given the evidence, which account uses fewer mechanisms or more importantly does not use mechanisms for which there is no evidence or explanation.
I didn't even give you a "concept", I gave you the evidence. Please explain where the designer is argued for within the evidence, or how change over time is complex when we do see change over time between generations.
There is no word in science called impossible. Nor do we base theories on unknowns. We have to go with what seems likely
You have just said that evo is statistically impossible and have based your theory on an unknown entity. As it stands I didn't say anything was impossible (read carefully and you'll find I was criticizing such commentary) and I am not basing any theory on an unknown.
I am stating straight out we do not know all environmental conditions and so cannot rule out that abiogenesis, nor speciation, occured due to naturally occuring chemical reactions.
The theory of evolution is not based on the fact that we cannot rule out abiogenesis, nor natural selection. Rather, those theories, most especially descent with modification and natural selection, are formed by looking at what we do know which is that change occurs over generations, and we have fossil evidence consistent with the idea of life beginning simply and becoming more complex.
The underlying mechanisms of how things change were not known at the time, and are only now able to be explored, which is what we are doing.
If a criticism is going to be lain on evolutionary theory's doorstep that it did not have all mechanisms behind change understood, that same criticism will be delivered to ID and Creationist's doorsteps as well.
Oh, it leaves a trace all the time.
Then please give me the traces, and the corresponding model, of how the designer interacted with life from its inception and across time. As far as I understand we have found no evidence of a designer at all, much less when these "designers" interacted with life.
You cannot name any conditions that would overcome Le Chatlier's principle, can you? If you can, what are they?
You are using a straw man. No, besides some high energy physics possibilities I cannot name conditions that would overcome a specific formula (chemical equations) from being true. Nor would I say such a thing.
I am arguing that we have yet to explore all possible formulas (chemical equations).
NO, this is not correct. 2LOT applies to open, closed and isolated systems
You need to learn more about thermodynamics. The point I was making is that your criticism, that 2LOT stands against formation of life, would only work if the earth or specific earth locations were closed systems.
The earth is not, and as I pointed out, neither would a bunch of hydrocarbons trapped within a plastic membrane receiving solar or geothermal energy.
It is now time for you to explain how it stands against it, rather than just asserting that it does. I think further assertions along this line, without support, will begin to cross forum guidelines.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 164 by Jerry Don Bauer, posted 05-11-2005 10:23 AM Jerry Don Bauer has not replied

  
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