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Author Topic:   To our members in the Caribbean hunker down; if in Florida head north..
jar
Member
Posts: 29363
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 1 of 53 (819086)
09-05-2017 9:49 PM


Stay safe. Ride out, don't ride one out.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 2 by kjsimons, posted 09-06-2017 12:15 PM jar has responded
 Message 3 by Phat, posted 09-06-2017 12:25 PM jar has not yet responded
 Message 9 by Pressie, posted 09-07-2017 7:24 AM jar has responded

  
kjsimons
Member
Posts: 647
From: Orlando,FL
Joined: 06-17-2003


Message 2 of 53 (819115)
09-06-2017 12:15 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
09-05-2017 9:49 PM


I'm in Orlando and the latest track seems to be up the East coast of Florida. If it sticks to that track I may only have tropical storm force winds. When it was coming right up the center, heading North seemed to be the prudent thing to do!

Jar, if I remember correctly, you live near Brownsville Texas. Did you get much impact from Harvey ?

Edited by kjsimons, : No reason given.


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Phat
Member
Posts: 9739
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.6


Message 3 of 53 (819117)
09-06-2017 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
09-05-2017 9:49 PM


Irma is a Whopper

quote:
With a tightly defined eye, high maximum winds and gusts of up to 195 knots — or 225 mph — Irma has left weather forecasters flabbergasted.

"I am at a complete and utter loss for words looking at Irma's appearance on satellite imagery," NHC scientist Taylor Trogdon said Tuesday night, reacting to images of the storm's tight and powerful spiral.


Jose is next, although preliminary forecasts have that tropical storm spinning out to sea.


Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. –RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." –Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
"as long as chance rules, God is an anachronism."~Arthur Koestler

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jar
Member
Posts: 29363
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 4 of 53 (819118)
09-06-2017 12:56 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by kjsimons
09-06-2017 12:15 PM


I was fine through Harvey but my niece and many friends had a rougher time. Fortunately all family and friends though are okay.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Stile
Member
Posts: 2956
From: Ontario, Canada
Joined: 12-02-2004
Member Rating: 4.6


Message 5 of 53 (819119)
09-06-2017 12:57 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Phat
09-06-2017 12:25 PM


Re: Irma is a Whopper
On pictures such as this, can anyone clarify for me what the blue outline area is supposed to mean?

My first guess:
1 - This is the average-range for possible course trajectories of the centre of the hurricane.
That is, in this provided picture, projections are unsure if it will go up the west side or east side of Florida or anywhere in between.
Although the black line provided is the "most likely" with the information provided by this picture.

My second guess:
2 - The path of the hurricane within the blue area is more-or-less known (the black line), and the blue area is a "range of affected places" and possibly even showing the hurricane's projected growth along it's projected path?

Just wondering.

Edited by Stile, : Just adding more thoughts.


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jar
Member
Posts: 29363
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 6 of 53 (819120)
09-06-2017 1:00 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Stile
09-06-2017 12:57 PM


Re: Irma is a Whopper
It depends on how far out. If looking a day or so then it is a close approximation of the track. Beyond about a day it is a cone of possible center tracks, the center of the storm could be anywhere within the cone.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Diomedes
Member
Posts: 660
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 7 of 53 (819121)
09-06-2017 2:11 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by Phat
09-06-2017 12:25 PM


Re: Irma is a Whopper
I live just northeast of Orlando. Keeping an eye on the track now. As it stands, it looks like hunkering down is the option at this time if it skirts up the coastline. I'll definitely feel it, but the eye will be east of me.

The scary thing I see now is the potential impact to Miami and Key Largo if the track holds.


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jar
Member
Posts: 29363
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 8 of 53 (819131)
09-06-2017 4:25 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by Diomedes
09-06-2017 2:11 PM


Re: Irma is a Whopper
And Georgia and South Carolina.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Pressie
Member
Posts: 1770
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 9 of 53 (819145)
09-07-2017 7:24 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by jar
09-05-2017 9:49 PM


That's a very almighty storm. Hope it misses you!
This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by jar, posted 09-05-2017 9:49 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
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jar
Member
Posts: 29363
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 3.1


Message 10 of 53 (819147)
09-07-2017 7:52 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by Pressie
09-07-2017 7:24 AM


It's likely Irma will stay away from me and it looks like Katia will be well south of me too.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Pressie
Member
Posts: 1770
From: Pretoria, SA
Joined: 06-18-2010
Member Rating: 3.1


(1)
Message 11 of 53 (819151)
09-07-2017 9:04 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by jar
09-07-2017 7:52 AM


Good. I can't even try to imagine evc without jar.
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Phat
Member
Posts: 9739
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.6


(1)
Message 12 of 53 (819152)
09-07-2017 10:05 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by jar
09-07-2017 7:52 AM


Irma Ranks Among Longest-Lived Category 5 Hurricanes
Irma is compiling records for hurricanes.

quote:
Hurricane Irma Meteorological Records/Notable Facts Recap (through
September 6 at 11pm EDT)

Note: Lifetime refers to storm lifetime to date

Intensity Measures
- 185 mph lifetime max winds – tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane. (Allen had max winds of 190 mph in 1980)

- 185 mph lifetime max winds – making it the strongest storm on record to impact the Leeward Islands, defined as 15-19°N, 65-60°W for this calculation.
Okeechobee Hurricane (1928) and David (1979) were previous strongest at 160
mph

- 185 mph lifetime max winds – the strongest storm to exist outside of the
Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record

- 185 mph max winds for 33 hours – the longest any cyclone around the globe has
maintained that intensity on record. The previous record was Haiyan in the NW
Pacific at 24 hours

- 914 mb lifetime minimum central pressure – lowest since Dean (2007) and 10th
lowest in satellite era (since 1966)
- 914 mb lifetime minimum central pressure – lowest pressure by an Atlantic
hurricane outside of the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record

- First Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic since Matthew (2016) and first
Category 5 hurricane in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20°N, 60-20°W) since Hugo
(1989)
- 1.75 days as a Category 5 hurricane – tied with David (1979), Mitch (1998) and
Isabel (2003) for 4th most Category 5 hurricane days on record

Integrated Measures

- Generated the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy by a tropical cyclone on
record in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20°N, 60-20°W)



Chance as a real force is a myth. It has no basis in reality and no place in scientific inquiry. For science and philosophy to continue to advance in knowledge, chance must be demythologized once and for all. –RC Sproul
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." –Mark Twain "
~"If that's not sufficient for you go soak your head."~Faith
"as long as chance rules, God is an anachronism."~Arthur Koestler

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by jar, posted 09-07-2017 7:52 AM jar has not yet responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 18959
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 3.8


(2)
Message 13 of 53 (819154)
09-07-2017 10:46 AM
Reply to: Message 11 by Pressie
09-07-2017 9:04 AM


Good. I can't even try to imagine evc without jar.

That would be ajar?


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
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ringo
Member
Posts: 13622
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.4


(1)
Message 14 of 53 (819160)
09-07-2017 11:56 AM
Reply to: Message 13 by RAZD
09-07-2017 10:46 AM


RAZD writes:

That would be ajar?


If you leave EvC ajar, the inmates might escape.
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kjsimons
Member
Posts: 647
From: Orlando,FL
Joined: 06-17-2003


(1)
Message 15 of 53 (819203)
09-07-2017 8:31 PM


Windy
There is a pretty cool website that shows the current and future winds and other weather events. It's using the European model (the most accurate it appears).
Windy
  
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