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Author Topic:   Mutation
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1497 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 137 of 171 (104708)
05-02-2004 4:59 AM
Reply to: Message 133 by Milagros
05-02-2004 4:03 AM


Well, since talkorigins mentions that it's hard to even detect "beneficial" mutations we'll make all the numbers on each side of the million sided die blurry, or scratched up, that way it makes it "hard to detect".
That doesn't really matter. The die lands one side up when you roll it, regardless of our ability to read it.
Based on this KNOWN information we can then calculate the probability of rolling a 66 on a 1 million sided die 1 million times. Right?
Right, because you've given an example with a closed sample space. We know exactly how many sides are on the die, so we have a closed set of possibilities to calculate.
Can you tell me how many possible mutations there are? Of course you can't - it's that missing variable that makes the whole thing incalculable.
Since we DON'T have a model to work from we are then left with the SCIENTIFIC METHOD of "Observation" and "deductive" and "inductive" reasoning.
And I've shown you how your conclusion is not a proper deduction from a premise that one organisms stands a very low chance of benefiting from a mutation. Yet, you continue to repeat your erroneous argument without elaboration. That's against the forum guidelines, and moreover, rather annoying.
You continue to ignore that repetition makes improbabilities certainties. Why is that?
However if YOU insist there must be, then YOU must provide the math, NOT ME.
I did, remember?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 133 by Milagros, posted 05-02-2004 4:03 AM Milagros has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1497 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 138 of 171 (104709)
05-02-2004 5:21 AM
Reply to: Message 135 by Milagros
05-02-2004 4:06 AM


Yes, bingo, "observation" and "deductive" or "inductive" reasoning, which so happen to be SCIENTIFIC METHODS.
Ok, so then you won't have any problems answering the following questions about your reasoning:
Which observations have you made, and when and where did you make them?
You've mentioned both deduction and induction, which of these are you using to arrive at your conclusion? They aren't the same thing, you know.
If you're deducing, what were your inital axioms? What logical transformations did you use to derive conclusions from them?
If you're inducting, outline your exact inducive step, including the base case and terminal condition.
C'mon, M. You've made no observations, and you certainly haven't deduced or inducted anything - you don't even know what those terms mean, or how to do them. The process you followed was "quote from a webpage" and "make a wild guess."
You'll pardon us if we think the guess of someone already committed to the outcome - that is, evolution being wrong - isn't worth a damn.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 135 by Milagros, posted 05-02-2004 4:06 AM Milagros has not replied

  
crashfrog
Member (Idle past 1497 days)
Posts: 19762
From: Silver Spring, MD
Joined: 03-20-2003


Message 145 of 171 (105109)
05-03-2004 11:46 PM
Reply to: Message 143 by Milagros
05-03-2004 11:31 PM


Repetitions make ignoring you a certainty
M, if you refuse to address the single largest flaw in your argument - that repetition makes low probabilities certainties - what's the point in talking to you?
I know I've told you that at least six times, and proven it with simple examples, but each time you ignore it. Why is that?
You have to address that fact, because it disproves your argument. No matter how improbable one fixed, beneficial mutation might be, you're guaranteed to get enough of them in a large enough population over enough time. Why do you refuse to address that? Ignoring me won't make it go away, but it will make me not want to talk to you anymore.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 143 by Milagros, posted 05-03-2004 11:31 PM Milagros has not replied

  
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