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Author Topic:   The social and polical importance of tropical weather
arachnophilia
Member (Idle past 87 days)
Posts: 9069
From: god's waiting room
Joined: 05-21-2004


Message 16 of 25 (252511)
10-17-2005 8:30 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by berberry
10-17-2005 8:11 PM


Re: what's next? alpha?
i think you're right. anyways, we should revive it.

the next hurricane is "bush" no matter what anyone else says.


אָרַח

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 8:11 PM berberry has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by RAZD, posted 10-17-2005 8:39 PM arachnophilia has responded

  
RAZD
Member
Posts: 19818
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 10.0


Message 17 of 25 (252514)
10-17-2005 8:39 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by arachnophilia
10-17-2005 8:30 PM


Re: what's next? alpha?
what do you mean the next one -- this ones "W"


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand

RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by arachnophilia, posted 10-17-2005 8:30 PM arachnophilia has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by arachnophilia, posted 10-17-2005 8:42 PM RAZD has not yet responded

  
arachnophilia
Member (Idle past 87 days)
Posts: 9069
From: god's waiting room
Joined: 05-21-2004


Message 18 of 25 (252515)
10-17-2005 8:42 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by RAZD
10-17-2005 8:39 PM


Re: what's next? alpha?
hahaha.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by RAZD, posted 10-17-2005 8:39 PM RAZD has not yet responded

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 3928 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 19 of 25 (252610)
10-18-2005 4:46 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by berberry
10-17-2005 7:11 PM


I think even if we had been enjoying the best of the Clinton economy when this hurricane age started last year, another few years of increasing storm activity could still knock us into a recession.

Hurricane age? Again we are simply shifting back toward norms. We were in a passive age which deluded a lot of people.

I do not feel confident to predict whether another few years will or will not knock us into a recession for a time, but if we cannot recover to a point where we can weather future years of storms with minimal impact on the economy as a whole then that would be a manmade one.

If nothing else, the price of gas will rise to the point that many more millions of people will have effectively no discretionary income for some years.

Well that is true but tied back again to wholly manmade issues. If we were not in the situation we are with oil, then storms hitting regional oil supplies would not be a major factor.

I think the biggest single threat to our way of life at this precise moment is the weather.

It is humbling to see that nature will always be a player in human life, but I just can't agree with "threat to our way of life". Regionally perhaps, especially if the way people live physically does not adjust (that is people do not adapt), but not wholesale.

Maybe I am just not understanding what way of life means to you. In fact now that I think of it recessions and depressions do not really change our way of life as they are a part of life. Way of life to me means a change in social order, such that we lose freedoms we once had, or are incapable of living together as we once had.

The last great depression caused suffering, but life includes periods of suffering and our "way of life" handles it or it cannot and ends. In this case our way of life most certainly did handle the depression, and we came out with some extra securities.

It was actually during the periods of good economy and weather that our greatest changes away from our "way of life" have generally occured.

Maybe it just seems that way to me though, since natural disasters force everyone to be practical with solutions, while manmade disasters means that any and all solutions can be invoked, usually the most drastic to how we live.

AbE: It just occured to me that perhaps our disconnect is that when you say "way of life" you are actually meaning "standard of living". To me those are very different things, recessions and depressions marking reduced standards of living even if they do not change our way of life. I would agree that multiple and continuous natural disasters could very well effect the standard of living. Though I still believe that should eventually work itself out over time.

This message has been edited by holmes, 10-18-2005 05:59 AM


holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)
This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by berberry, posted 10-17-2005 7:11 PM berberry has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 20 by berberry, posted 10-18-2005 9:40 AM Silent H has responded

    
berberry
Inactive Member


Message 20 of 25 (252690)
10-18-2005 9:40 AM
Reply to: Message 19 by Silent H
10-18-2005 4:46 AM


holmes writes me:

quote:
It just occured to me that perhaps our disconnect is that when you say "way of life" you are actually meaning "standard of living".

Pretty damned close but not exactly. 'Standard of living' is a key part of 'way of life' as I see it. I disagree with you that they're very different, because I think the one falls under the heading of the other.

In any case you're correct to imply we've been talking past one another on this.

If we drop into recession soon, which I think could happen if the forecasts for much higher heating oil and electricity prices this winter are true, we might be facing something like the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, which compounded the Great Depression. And if you ask me, a typical victim of the Dust Bowl had a 'way of life' that was affected far more by his poverty than by his constitutional rights or his American citizenship.


"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.
This message is a reply to:
 Message 19 by Silent H, posted 10-18-2005 4:46 AM Silent H has responded

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 Message 21 by Silent H, posted 10-18-2005 5:07 PM berberry has not yet responded

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 3928 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 21 of 25 (252831)
10-18-2005 5:07 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by berberry
10-18-2005 9:40 AM


'Standard of living' is a key part of 'way of life' as I see it. I disagree with you that they're very different, because I think the one falls under the heading of the other.

This is not a right or wrong thing, but a matter of opinion. Thus I am not going to argue that you are wrong in considering things in this way. What I will do is explain why I see it differently. We can use your example...

we might be facing something like the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, which compounded the Great Depression. And if you ask me, a typical victim of the Dust Bowl had a 'way of life' that was affected far more by his poverty than by his constitutional rights or his American citizenship.

I'm glad you brought this up as an example as I wanted to earlier. I agree with your assessment that things could certainly get as bad as that, only now from mounting storms. Although you state here that a victims of the dust bowl had their "way if life" effected, that is significantly different than OUR way of life.

As I said, suffering is a part of life. A person having suffered a couple heart attacks will have their way of life effected, as they must now live much differently in order to try and preserve their standard of living. Yet even if their is a significant rise in the number of heart attacks across the nation, the nation's way of life will not change, even if standards of living are generally effected with the cost of healthcare going up.

The same goes with the dust bowl victims. They were caught in a regional suffering and had both their standard of living and way of life effected. But the nation as a whole maintained its way of life, even if the standard of living dropped.

If it hadn't kept its way of life then when the depression went into recovery we'd have been looking at a vastly different nation. But it wasn't, except for a few more protection to guard against future occurences. Those that had had their standard of living reduced, may have seen good times again and lived the same way they had before.

A counter point would be Nazi germany. Although they did not face a true natural crisis, they suffered a similar manmade crisis (economic collapse). Unlike the US, the Germans were willing to sacrifice their way of life to try and regain their standard of living. Once recovery happened, german citizens were faced with a much much different nation and way of doing things.

That's why I do not conflate standard of living with way of life. In doing that it is easier to see solutions to standards problems by changing the way we live.

Hope that was interesting, but like I said if you want to keep your way of looking at things I certainly won't call you wrong.


holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)
This message is a reply to:
 Message 20 by berberry, posted 10-18-2005 9:40 AM berberry has not yet responded

    
berberry
Inactive Member


Message 22 of 25 (252939)
10-19-2005 4:09 AM


Hurricane Wilma becomes one of the strongest cat 5s
Good God, this thing's already a cat 5 monster. Check the central pressure - 892mb!

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.


"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.
  
berberry
Inactive Member


Message 23 of 25 (253000)
10-19-2005 9:49 AM


Wilma now the strongest hurricane on record
From the latest update:

BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE
JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB...26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE
LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

Pretty amazing stuff.

If anyone here knows anything about meteorology, I have a question: why don't forecasters predict what size a storm is likely to be when it passes a certain point? When you compare the huge monster Katrina to the tighter and stronger Camille in terms of storm surge and extent of damage you can see how important the physical size is. The TV meteorologists always report the current size of these blows, but they seldom say whether growth or shrinkage is expected. Why not?


"We look forward to hearing your vision, so we can more better do our job. That's what I'm telling you."-George W. Bush, Gulfport, Miss.,
Sept. 20, 2005.
  
robinrohan
Inactive Member


Message 24 of 25 (253060)
10-19-2005 12:49 PM


I wonder if there is any data on whether or not the Carribean and Gulf are warmer this year.

I've never seen storms increase in intensity so quickly. Rita did that too.


Replies to this message:
 Message 25 by macaroniandcheese, posted 10-19-2005 1:45 PM robinrohan has not yet responded

  
macaroniandcheese 
Suspended Member (Idle past 2037 days)
Posts: 4258
Joined: 05-24-2004


Message 25 of 25 (253079)
10-19-2005 1:45 PM
Reply to: Message 24 by robinrohan
10-19-2005 12:49 PM


well usually storms at the end of the season are bigger and stronger than at the beginning. i've seen more storms at the end than the beginning period. but yeah they are probably significantly warmer than usual.
This message is a reply to:
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