But...would it be incredulous to say that I can't accept that you could win the lottery in a lifetime, say 3 times? Even though it's "possible"? I don't have any evidence that it's "impossible", however how "probable" is it that you can accomplish this 3 times in a lifetime?
Here's the error in this analogy:
I don't have to win the lottery three times.
Somebody here in the state does, in fact, win it nearly every week. If they don't piss all of that loot away, they pass some of the benefit on to their kids.
A single organism doesn't need to "win" three times, or even once: it just has to leave progeny that wins, say, once in a thousand generations in order to pass down noticeable change. Our state lottery used to say, "$4 million ain't chicken feed!" Likewise, a lot can happen in a million years, and we know of nearly 500 millions of years just since the first vertebrates.