Hi Slevesque,
A shame this discussion didn't continue
Probably because there are too many unknowns to even know how to begin to calculate the probabilities.
Players
What club player is using
How well he knows the course
Weather
Condition of green
Slope/s of green
How many balls on the green
Distribution of balls from pin
etc
etc
...
including, perhaps the most important: how many different combinations of balls, hits and trajectories would end up with a hole in one.
This is the basic problem with trying to calculate realistic probabilities for any physical action -- if you don't know
all the possible outcomes then you can't figure the possibilities.
This is why the "it's so improbable it can't have happened" argument fails every time - calculations are based on assumptions, often silly and false assumptions.
Enjoy.
we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel American Zen Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.
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