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Author Topic:   Statistical impossibility??
subbie
Member (Idle past 1284 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 8 of 47 (343375)
08-25-2006 3:38 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by CatholicBioTeacher
08-24-2006 4:10 PM


I have heard that some physicists have stated that it would be statisticaly impossible for all the factors that go into making a place in the universe suitable for life (as we know it) to come about given that there is only one universe.
"life (as we know it)"
Those three little words in parentheses, it seems to me, blow the whole claim out of the water. Even if it is accurate to say that it is statistically impossible for the precise set of physical characteristics that the universe presents to exist in one universe, for that fact to be significant one would have to assume that this set of physical characteristics is the only set that would produce life. If it's not, then the claim is fairly inconsequential.
To illustrate: suppose that the odds of the universe exhibiting exactly the rules that it does to be 1 in a billion. I imagine that would qualify as being "statistically impossible." However, if there are one hundred million different possible combinations that would result in life of some sort, the odds drop to 1 in ten, hardly "statistically impossible." Obviously, since we have only this universe to base our experience on, there's no way to know how many different possible universes would be capable of producing life. But, without knowing that, one simply cannot say what the statistical probability is of the universe producing life.
Sounds to me like the claim falls into the category of "We don't really know the answers, but gosh, it sure sounds unbelievable to me, so I don't believe it." This is more commonly called an argument from ignorance.
The whole thing strikes me as being quite nonsensical. How can one determine the odds of any particular "factor" being present? What are the odds that the speed of light is 300,000,000 m/s as opposed to 250,000,000, or 10? What are the odds that pi is 3.14159265... as opposed to 2.49897543... or 42? What are the odds that gravity works to attract bodies to one another as opposed to repel?
I understand that you cannot answer these questions, CBT, but can you at least understand why the questions themselves sound ridiculous? Or perhaps I'm simply misunderstanding the whole thing, and I'm the one that sounds ridiculous. If so, wouldn't be the first time, won't be the last.

Those who would sacrifice an essential liberty for a temporary security will lose both, and deserve neither. -- Benjamin Franklin

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by CatholicBioTeacher, posted 08-24-2006 4:10 PM CatholicBioTeacher has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by warner, posted 10-16-2006 11:16 AM subbie has not replied

  
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