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Author Topic:   Just a question...
crashfrog
Inactive Member


Message 151 of 199 (430309)
10-24-2007 12:23 PM
Reply to: Message 144 by itrownot
10-24-2007 2:34 AM


Re: Confirmation Bias
Are you suggesting that I MUST be hallucinating?

I'm suggesting that the easiest person to fool is always yourself. Look, we know that's a fact from psychology. Look at these sets of lines:

Now, if you were asked to compare the length of the first one to the other three, and decide which of the three were most equal to the first, can you imagine any situation under which you might honestly answer "A" instead of "C"? I mean, A is visibly shorter, is it not?

Yet, in the Asch conformity experiment, fully 36% of the subjects did exactly that - answered that A was the closer match - when they were surrounded by confederates (research assistants whose collaboration with the researchers is unknown to the subject) who all answered A.

Not a single one of the subjects who so misanswered was aware that they had done so to conform to the rest of the group; they had genuinely perceived that A was the closer match, because of the effect of conformity. These were completely healthy, normal individuals.

Do you understand the relevance? There are all manner of factors that make you see things that simply aren't there before we even get into mental illness. Of course, nearly one in 16 Americans have a serious mental illness that could cause hallucinations or mental artifacts, so it's not unreasonable to suggest some mental defect on your part, either.

But my point is that even a normal, healthy brain can be made to see things that simply aren't there at all. That's a known fact from psychology. What makes you think you're any different than a normal person?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 144 by itrownot, posted 10-24-2007 2:34 AM itrownot has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 155 by itrownot, posted 10-24-2007 10:10 PM crashfrog has responded

  
nator
Member (Idle past 332 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 152 of 199 (430334)
10-24-2007 5:59 PM
Reply to: Message 130 by itrownot
10-23-2007 11:09 PM


Re: Confirmation Bias
quote:
Suppose, just prior to the paint strokes occurring (as described in the previous example), you had been prompted (say, by a "still, small voice") to answer the question, "What is your favorite portrait?" and you had answered unequivocally, "the Mona Lisa...THAT is my favorite portrait!" and then, suddenly, the Mona Lisa portrait mysteriously appeared only hours later, what would you say? Would you describe THAT as self-centered?

Why are you talking about a painting? What does that have to do with anything, unless it is the very thing that happened to you?

You claimed that you had no way of predicting what was coming next, but a half-finished portrait provides some pretty good clues about what will appear next. If the nose is there, for example, you have a pretty good chance of predicting where the eyes and mouth are going to be.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 130 by itrownot, posted 10-23-2007 11:09 PM itrownot has not yet responded

    
nator
Member (Idle past 332 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 153 of 199 (430337)
10-24-2007 6:08 PM
Reply to: Message 144 by itrownot
10-24-2007 2:34 AM


Re: Confirmation Bias
quote:
It's pointless to discuss this thing any further when I have already stated repeatedly that I wasn't trying to convince anyone,

Just so you know...

What you walk into a room of science-minded people and say "I've got emprirical evidence for the existence of God" (with no quotes around that word), don't be surprised that they challenge you.

Furthermore, when you tell them, "Well, I don't mean "empirical" the way scientists mean it, but in my own personal way.", you should also expect some discussion of that.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 144 by itrownot, posted 10-24-2007 2:34 AM itrownot has not yet responded

    
nator
Member (Idle past 332 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 154 of 199 (430338)
10-24-2007 6:12 PM
Reply to: Message 147 by riVeRraT
10-24-2007 9:39 AM


Science is biased in favor of the evidence as observed.

quote:
That was the most ridiculous thing you've ever said.

Well that was a completely meaningless, worthless statment unless you take the trouble to explain why you think it was the most ridiculous thing I've ever written.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 147 by riVeRraT, posted 10-24-2007 9:39 AM riVeRraT has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 159 by riVeRraT, posted 10-25-2007 8:57 AM nator has responded

    
itrownot
Member (Idle past 4160 days)
Posts: 71
Joined: 10-15-2007


Message 155 of 199 (430370)
10-24-2007 10:10 PM
Reply to: Message 151 by crashfrog
10-24-2007 12:23 PM


Re: Confirmation Bias
quote: "I'm suggesting that the easiest person to fool is always yourself."

crashfrog, I don't think you meant to say "always"---this is hyperbole, right?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 151 by crashfrog, posted 10-24-2007 12:23 PM crashfrog has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 156 by sidelined, posted 10-24-2007 10:17 PM itrownot has responded
 Message 163 by crashfrog, posted 10-25-2007 3:24 PM itrownot has responded

    
sidelined
Inactive Member


Message 156 of 199 (430372)
10-24-2007 10:17 PM
Reply to: Message 155 by itrownot
10-24-2007 10:10 PM


Re: Confirmation Bias
itrownot

crashfrog, I don't think you meant to say "always"---this is hyperbole, right?

Not at all I reckon, given that we are far less critical of ourselves than we are of others.

Edited by sidelined, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 155 by itrownot, posted 10-24-2007 10:10 PM itrownot has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 157 by itrownot, posted 10-25-2007 2:52 AM sidelined has not yet responded

  
itrownot
Member (Idle past 4160 days)
Posts: 71
Joined: 10-15-2007


Message 157 of 199 (430403)
10-25-2007 2:52 AM
Reply to: Message 156 by sidelined
10-24-2007 10:17 PM


Re: Confirmation Bias
ALWAYS easier?

perhaps you're missing my point, sidelined...

but actually, I'd be more interested to hear from crashfrog as to what he meant.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 156 by sidelined, posted 10-24-2007 10:17 PM sidelined has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 158 by nator, posted 10-25-2007 6:13 AM itrownot has not yet responded

    
nator
Member (Idle past 332 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 158 of 199 (430409)
10-25-2007 6:13 AM
Reply to: Message 157 by itrownot
10-25-2007 2:52 AM


Re: Confirmation Bias
I think crash was paraphrasing one of my favorite Feynman quotes:

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”

The most difficult bias to detect is bias we ourselves have.

This makes sense, since if we could spot our own biases, they wouldn't be biases anymore.

Individual bias is one of the things the scientific method corrects for.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 157 by itrownot, posted 10-25-2007 2:52 AM itrownot has not yet responded

    
riVeRraT
Member (Idle past 82 days)
Posts: 5746
From: NY USA
Joined: 05-09-2004


Message 159 of 199 (430423)
10-25-2007 8:57 AM
Reply to: Message 154 by nator
10-24-2007 6:12 PM


If science is biased on unbiased objective evidence, then that makes science unbiased, not biased. Negative plus positive, equals negative.

bias: A bias is a prejudice in a general or specific sense, usually in the sense for having a preference to one particular point of view or ideological perspective. However, one is generally only said to be biased if one's powers of judgment are influenced by the biases one holds, to the extent that one's views could not be taken as being neutral or objective, but instead as subjective.

This description does not fit the definition of science. Science is not subjective.

There is a difference between the word "based" and "bias".

Edited by riVeRraT, : :


This message is a reply to:
 Message 154 by nator, posted 10-24-2007 6:12 PM nator has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 160 by Percy, posted 10-25-2007 9:05 AM riVeRraT has responded
 Message 161 by dwise1, posted 10-25-2007 10:46 AM riVeRraT has not yet responded
 Message 164 by nator, posted 10-25-2007 6:06 PM riVeRraT has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 18473
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 160 of 199 (430426)
10-25-2007 9:05 AM
Reply to: Message 159 by riVeRraT
10-25-2007 8:57 AM


riVeRraT writes:

If science is biased on unbiased objective evidence, then that makes science unbiased, not biased. Negative plus positive, equals negative.

This seems to be based upon a misunderstanding of what Nator wrote in Message 61:

Nator in Message 61 writes:

Science is biased in favor of the evidence as observed.

I can't make sense of how you're misinterpreting this, but it definitely does not mean "science is biased on unbiased objective evidence," which reads nonsensically to me.

All Nator was saying is that science places great emphasis on observational evidence.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 159 by riVeRraT, posted 10-25-2007 8:57 AM riVeRraT has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 187 by riVeRraT, posted 10-27-2007 1:02 PM Percy has responded

    
dwise1
Member
Posts: 3489
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.1


Message 161 of 199 (430437)
10-25-2007 10:46 AM
Reply to: Message 159 by riVeRraT
10-25-2007 8:57 AM


Negative plus positive, equals negative.

Uh, no, not necessarily. Sometimes negative and sometimes positive, depending on which term has the greater magnitude.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 159 by riVeRraT, posted 10-25-2007 8:57 AM riVeRraT has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 162 by Percy, posted 10-25-2007 1:58 PM dwise1 has not yet responded

    
Percy
Member
Posts: 18473
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 162 of 199 (430441)
10-25-2007 1:58 PM
Reply to: Message 161 by dwise1
10-25-2007 10:46 AM


He might have meant "negative times positive equals negative."

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 161 by dwise1, posted 10-25-2007 10:46 AM dwise1 has not yet responded

    
crashfrog
Inactive Member


Message 163 of 199 (430454)
10-25-2007 3:24 PM
Reply to: Message 155 by itrownot
10-24-2007 10:10 PM


Re: Confirmation Bias

crashfrog, I don't think you meant to say "always"---this is hyperbole, right?

I know that it's surprising the first time you find out what it really means to have a genuinely skeptical mindset, but no, it's not hyperbole.

It's always easiest to fool yourself.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 155 by itrownot, posted 10-24-2007 10:10 PM itrownot has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 165 by itrownot, posted 10-26-2007 12:28 AM crashfrog has responded

  
nator
Member (Idle past 332 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 164 of 199 (430483)
10-25-2007 6:06 PM
Reply to: Message 159 by riVeRraT
10-25-2007 8:57 AM


quote:
bias: A bias is a prejudice in a general or specific sense, usually in the sense for having a preference to one particular point of view or ideological perspective.

Yes.

Science is biased in favor of empirical evidence.

That's obvious, isn't it?

I think you are getting caught up in the common misconception that bias is always a bad thing, which is isn't, of course.

I am, for example, biased in favor of ethical business practices as opposed to unethical practices.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 159 by riVeRraT, posted 10-25-2007 8:57 AM riVeRraT has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 188 by riVeRraT, posted 10-27-2007 1:04 PM nator has not yet responded

    
itrownot
Member (Idle past 4160 days)
Posts: 71
Joined: 10-15-2007


Message 165 of 199 (430556)
10-26-2007 12:28 AM
Reply to: Message 163 by crashfrog
10-25-2007 3:24 PM


Re: Confirmation Bias
quote:
"I'm suggesting that the easiest person to fool is always yourself. Look, we know that's a fact from psychology."

crashfrog...seriously, I get your point, it's just that your above statement is more "punny" than factual. Afterall, the word "fact" is a scientific term around here, just as, say, the word "empirical" is, so I'm just hoping you'll try to be more precise when using such terms. Otherwise, we're not going to understand what you're trying to say, know what I mean?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 163 by crashfrog, posted 10-25-2007 3:24 PM crashfrog has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 166 by crashfrog, posted 10-26-2007 12:33 AM itrownot has responded
 Message 167 by Rahvin, posted 10-26-2007 2:03 AM itrownot has responded

    
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