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Author | Topic: What if: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
China ignores US sanctions on Iranian Oil and in fact increases its purchases of Iranian oil?
China decides to sell off it's over one trillion dollars in US Treasury Bonds and stop buying new US Treasury Bonds? China devalues the Yuan? China opens Free Trade negotiations with Europe, Canada, Mexico? China joins the Trans Pacific Partnership that Trump pulled the US out of?
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined:
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I forgot one that is a variation of "China decides to sell off it's over one trillion dollars in US Treasury Bonds and stop buying new US Treasury Bonds?".
What If China swaps the over one trillion dollars in US Treasury Bonds for Iranian Oil? Currently Iranian oil is about $70.00 a barrel IIRC and China has been buying 620,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day. What if Iran held over a trillion dollars of US Treasury Bonds? Edited by jar, : on should have an "e"
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined:
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Stile writes: How does this sort of tactic work into your What if questions?Are there other sorts of large-industries where China could simply cancel their expected actions? There are many such options and all the options point towards the same results; Trade Wars are NOT easy to win. Back in 1946 Irving Berlin wrote a great little song for the Broadway Play "Annie Get your Gun" called Anything you can do I can do better... Well China is a nation of pretty bright educated thinkers. It is a large nation with a large educated population to draw talent from. It has a command type capitalist economy with a strong technological base. It can build planes and boats and computers and phones and cars and trains and produce steel and aluminum. According to WWW.Mining.Com"China is the leader in mining gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, iron ore, coal, tin, tungsten, rare earths, graphite, vanadium, antimony and phosphate, and holds second place in mine production of copper, silver, cobalt, bauxite/alumina and manganese." China exports raw materials mainly because there is not a large domestic demand; but if the State decided to ramp up manufacture of finished products they could become direct competitors of Boeing and GM and Ford and Fiat/Chrysler and ... ... and by joining in the free trade agreements that the US abandons quickly become a dominate player in the marketplace.
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined:
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Phat writes: Of course, if China then added gasoline to the trade war fire by swapping treasury notes for oil, as an example...it would clearly be an act of war. While in reality or a reality based society that could never be considered an act of war in the alternate society Trump is trying to create, a society based on desire and fantasy it could certainly be used as an excuse for war. Real wars are even harder to win than Trade Wars. Edited by jar, : appling spallin
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
It's not a game.
All great empires eventually learn that fact. Wresting the US away from globalization simply means the rest of the world will get along just fine; the already rich will get alone just fine.
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Phat writes: Trump himself has undergone personal bankruptcies before and may feel that a US default and bankruptcy is inevitable. No Phat, Trump has never gone through personal bankruptcy; it has been the companies and their employees that have suffered bankruptcy.
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Phat writes: But how do we keep China from taking over everything?? What? Just how could China take over everything?
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Phat writes: If our dollar loses its global reserve currency status, things will cost a lot more here relative to our wealth. Our lifestyle will suffer and the populists really will be growling about Globalization then, once we are no longer top dog. LOL Sorry but the value of a dollar will still vary relative to other currencies regardless of whether the US dollar is the global reserve currency or not.
Phat writes: It explains how China is poised to dominate globally in the tech (information/smartphone/financial business.) The answer to that is to educate our population so that we can be competitive with China and India and the EU and Brazil and the rest of the world. Retreating into a fantasy based society instead of a reality based society ain't gonna help. When we vacate a position in the world stage by opting out of treaties and global commerce organizations we simply open a door for China and India and Brazil and Indonesia and the Eu and the rest of the world to enter. What happens when a baseball team shows up with only eight players? What happens when a team does not even show up for a game?
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Phat writes: If our economy unravels and the rest of the world abandons us as the chief reserve currency, it will cost more to borrow! That's what I am saying...this may end up being a significant effect felt here domestically. Sheesh. Think Phat. If we place tariffs on products from overseas will they cost more when bought here? If the holders of current Treasury Bonds sell their bonds will we have to increase the interest rate on new Treasury Bonds to make them worth anyone buying them? Regardless of whether the dollar remains the Reserve Currency the issues you fear can happen. And yes. It's increasingly likely that the US remains a significant factor in world commerce if we keep pissing off those other trading spheres. The EU does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner. China does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner. India does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner. The rest of the world does not need America if we are not committed to defense of Europe and a valid stable (important word), dependable (important word), reliable (important word) partner.
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
Speaking of Treasury Bonds... since November 2017 Russia has dumped over 80% of the US Treasury bonds that it held. That was far less than the over a trillion dollars in Treasury Bonds held by China but in November 2017 (what happened then? ) Russia held over 105 billion dollars in US Treasuries but by May 2018 that figure was down to less than 15 billion dollars in US Treasury Bonds.
Russia is a small player when it comes to US Treasury Bonds but it is interesting that Russia decided that there were safer more profitable and productive places to invest than US Treasury Bonds.
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
My point is that high tech and industrial uses in China are growing very rapidly and will use vast quantities of gold and other precious metals.
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jar Member (Idle past 422 days) Posts: 34026 From: Texas!! Joined: |
LOL
And far more is used as jewelry which is far more portable than bullion. If the US dollar tanks then everyone else in the world would be positioned to profit from our demise.
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