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Author Topic:   Oh those clever evolutionists: Question-begging abiogenesis
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 7 of 301 (248112)
10-02-2005 6:26 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Faith
10-02-2005 2:17 AM


Re: Probabilities?
Is anybody but a creationist going to see why this is hilarious?
That's about as damning a statement for creationists as I ever saw.
Mathematical models are only as good as the data one has in order to constuct the model. One might not be aware of everything that goes into a phenomena and thus your model fails.
If your model predicts something can't happen, and you see it does happen, then the model is likely in error.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Faith, posted 10-02-2005 2:17 AM Faith has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 53 of 301 (248420)
10-03-2005 4:36 AM
Reply to: Message 49 by NosyNed
10-02-2005 11:02 PM


Re: Probabilities?
However this thread has exemplified in a very crisp manner that the creationists seem to specialize in willful ignorance and closed-mindedness.
Agreed, but has it also not been shown that this exact same willful ignorance and closed mindedness is being used equally by evos when it comes to personal beliefs they do not want challenged?
I think it is a bit bad form to single out creationists as sole exemplars of this behavior at this point. They are clearly the ones having this problem with regard to the science of origins and diversity of life (and perhaps some geological issues), but pick another topic and watch evos make the exact same mistake.
The real issue I think all of this is uncovering, is the issue of personal bias within science and knowledge. Most people want science to uncover what they believe and if it does not then it gets junked. That is a serious problem for us all.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 49 by NosyNed, posted 10-02-2005 11:02 PM NosyNed has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 54 of 301 (248422)
10-03-2005 4:51 AM
Reply to: Message 43 by Faith
10-02-2005 9:51 PM


Re: No, that's not what he said
The probability problem is a problem for evolutionists, not for creationists, and should be conceded.
You are making the same mistake you accuse RAZD of making.
A model is constructed by scientists in order to check the understanding of their knowledge of an area, and to make predictions if the model is good. They cannot test their model against an unknown entity or phenomena, which abiogenesis and full evolutionary mechanisms would be at this point in time.
We can see that life does exist. We do not know how. We have very very little knowledge about the mechanics of chemical dynamics, much less organic chemical dynamics under all conditions, much less what the conditions would have been at the point of abiogenesis, if it occured.
Mathematical models of abiogenesis or evolution then are not really disproof of anything. If a model showed that life could be made, then it would have to be tested in real life. If that happened then the model would be shown to be good and the abiogenesis possibility gets a huge boost. If a model does not show how life could be made, that means it could be right or it could be wrong.
To claim that theoretical mathematical models act in any way to disprove abiogenesis or evolution, is to beg the question of the validity of the mathematical model.
The failure of models to suggest how or how often life could have arisen is not a detriment to TOE and abio theories. It doesn't help them, but it does nothing to hinder them. The only time this could be the case is when we have accurate mathematical models for all possible chemical dynamics under all conditions, and have run them and still come up with nothing.
All known chemical dynamics is not at this time anywhere close to all possible dynamics.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 43 by Faith, posted 10-02-2005 9:51 PM Faith has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 66 of 301 (248505)
10-03-2005 11:23 AM
Reply to: Message 62 by Faith
10-03-2005 10:34 AM


What about RAZD's question-begging? Nobody going to acknowledge that?
What am I, chopped liver? My last post dealt with that issue. He is not the one begging the question, you are.
It is true that if he stated that the reality of evo and abio can prove a model wrong if it does not comply with expectations, that would be begging the question. But that is not in fact what he is saying. Or at least that is not how it reads to me.
However you are making the statement that a model's inability to show or predict evo or abio somehow has a logical impact on those theories. That is begging the question.
A model has no real way of impacting a scientific theory until it can be determined through some other test to be accurate for all possible relevant mechanisms required by that scientific theory. As far as I know there are no set mechanisms in advanced for evo or abio to be modelled or tested... just vague areas of where the mechanisms could exist.
Everyone has been trying to explain the following to you, but you don't seem to get it. Should I try? Yes I will...
We can see life arose and is diverse. Many possible mechanisms in different fields of knowledge may be the explanation. A model based on a portion of any of those fields which does not generate life or diversity (which we do see), means one of two things (if we really simplify the discussion)...
1) the model is correct and so life and diversity have nothing to do with the mechanisms found in those fields.
2) The model is not correct because we do not have enough knowledge of those fields to create an accurate model and its inconsistency is therefore meaningless.
Our confidence in the first being true is only as strong as our confidence in the totality of our knowledge in the applicable fields. That life does exist and is diverse, and we clearly do not have a great grasp of any of the applicable fields, suggests that the latter rather than the former is your best bet.
You may feel that is unfair, it is putting a much greater onus on the first point, and somehow assuming the latter to be true, but that is not the case. We are discussing models being used to eliminate the possibility of something being true. That requires quite a bit of evidence and confidence, compared to a model not telling us one way or the other.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 62 by Faith, posted 10-03-2005 10:34 AM Faith has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 71 of 301 (248564)
10-03-2005 2:09 PM
Reply to: Message 69 by Faith
10-03-2005 1:24 PM


Are you guys addressing what was actually said?
I did.
I can't get anything out of any of your carrying on about the validity of models
My last post contained two parts so you could ignore the model discussion, though it amplified the explanation of what was going on.
You are begging the question by assuming the validity of a model such that its results suggest something about reality.
RAZD on the other hand is not assuming anything about whether evo or abio are real to suggest something about the model. Unfortunately if you are not understanding what is being said about how models work and what an inconsistency suggests, it is unlikely you will understand what RAZD was saying. Your loss.
But that should not matter toward my point above regarding your position.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 69 by Faith, posted 10-03-2005 1:24 PM Faith has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 74 of 301 (248586)
10-03-2005 2:59 PM
Reply to: Message 73 by Percy
10-03-2005 2:15 PM


When we say that since life exists therefore the probabilities cannot rule out its spontaneous occurrence, we're talking scientifically.
Wait a second, that's not quite true. It is true at this point in time because of the quality of knowledge used for generating the possibiities.
You do grant that at some point science could be capable of generating possibilities on spontaneous generation of biomolecules which might have an impact on abio as a theory, correct?

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 73 by Percy, posted 10-03-2005 2:15 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 77 by Percy, posted 10-03-2005 3:27 PM Silent H has replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 79 of 301 (248634)
10-03-2005 5:03 PM
Reply to: Message 77 by Percy
10-03-2005 3:27 PM


"spontaneous occurrence" <=> "naturally"
That doesn't change my point. Theoretically there could be Gods or powerful aliens or extradimensional forces which created the first biomolecules, or may have left them behind while travelling through our universe where they would not occur naturally.
Now obviously there is no scientific evidence for such scenarios at this time, and postulating any of them is not scientifically valid for explanations, but they do remain scientific possibilities.
Given that there are such possibilities there is a chance that in the future we might find evidence, including statistical models capable of generating very accurate predictions of all possible in situ scenarios, suggesting that abiogenesis was not likely.
Is that probable? At this point in time the answer would be no. Is it impossible? No. Is it possible that today's models are anywhere near a stage where such credible calculations could be made? Not at all. Is it known that could never be the case? No.
I think you are coming off too strong by suggesting it can't possibly happen, rather than stressing that there is no indication at this point in time it is likely that it would happen.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 77 by Percy, posted 10-03-2005 3:27 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 81 by Percy, posted 10-03-2005 5:43 PM Silent H has replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 82 of 301 (248661)
10-03-2005 5:55 PM
Reply to: Message 81 by Percy
10-03-2005 5:43 PM


Maybe you can help me with some forum rules... where does posting smiley faces as a sole response come in?
From a debate standpoint it ain't too strong, but if you think that's worth something I'll start using it more often. It'd sure cut down on complaints regarding how long my posts are. And maybe creos can start using it. That'll shorten threads!
Great idea.
Or maybe you can concede the point, or refute it. It may be a minor point as it is a side issue in this debate with Faith, but overstating a position isn't going to help Faith understand what science is and says.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 81 by Percy, posted 10-03-2005 5:43 PM Percy has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 104 of 301 (248775)
10-04-2005 4:34 AM
Reply to: Message 102 by Faith
10-03-2005 11:37 PM


Re: Faith is ... stuck?
All you have done is repeat your original fallacy, as has everybody else here.
Well obviously I don't expect you to answer me at this point. Three times already?
But I think that pretty well goes to show you are the one not dealing with the issue in an honest manner. I have discussed what you said directly, yet you have to resort to claiming "everyone" has not without ever actually rebutting what I said.
I even admitted that the phrasing you have advanced would be begging the question. The problem is that that is not what he said (you are incorrectly paraphrasing) and that even if true for him, your own argument supporting the models as significant to evo or abio is begging the question.
I guess I'll leave it here.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 102 by Faith, posted 10-03-2005 11:37 PM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 106 by Faith, posted 10-04-2005 7:28 AM Silent H has replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 105 of 301 (248776)
10-04-2005 4:41 AM
Reply to: Message 87 by robinrohan
10-03-2005 8:41 PM


Re: Faith is right
The OP begs the question.
Robin, you should be better than this. It is true that Faith's reading of it (the way it has been paraphrased) is begging the question, but as people are attempting to explain that is not what he said.
Unless of course you were suggesting that Faith's OP was begging the question? In that case you would be right. What I find remarkable is that Faith can't realize if she takes the polar opposite position of the one she stated was begging the question, that means her own position is equally in error. Can't you see that?

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 87 by robinrohan, posted 10-03-2005 8:41 PM robinrohan has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 108 by robinrohan, posted 10-04-2005 7:33 AM Silent H has replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 114 of 301 (248835)
10-04-2005 11:42 AM
Reply to: Message 106 by Faith
10-04-2005 7:28 AM


Re: Faith is ... stuck?
I didn't see any point in answering what is really not much more than what everybody else is saying
Who else developed an argument that you are begging the question, by assuming that models will have an effect on abio and evo theories?
Oh wait, I see that Robin is starting to notice some problems and they should lead directly to that same assessment of your position.
thanks for acknowledging that it sort of sounds like he was begging the question.
Not sounds like... is begging the question. You are right that what you wrote is begging the question.
The problem is that your paraphrasing is not accurate, and that appears to stem directly from not understanding what he was saying, which involves understanding how models are made and tested and what they apply to. That is why people keep trying to discuss models. If you understood them, then you'd understand exactly what he meant, and that your paraphrase (while an example of begging the question) does not hold.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 106 by Faith, posted 10-04-2005 7:28 AM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 118 by Faith, posted 10-04-2005 1:59 PM Silent H has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 115 of 301 (248837)
10-04-2005 12:03 PM
Reply to: Message 108 by robinrohan
10-04-2005 7:33 AM


Re: Faith is right
He is, in effect, saying that since life came about {under his breath, naturalistically}, there must be something wrong with the model, or rather that it does not matter how improbable it is, it happened (under his breath, naturalistically).
I think you are making a mistake here. He was suggesting that even if the hand of God was the cause (and we account that a naturalistic explanation) probability calcs do not impact the theory.
No matter how "improbable odds" you get from ANY model, until the model is known to be foolproof and involves everything needed for such a calculation, it suggests simply that the model is not complete, rather than that a theory is in question.
You and Faith both seem to be missing that the assumption that a probability calculation on this topic could be correct in any way shape or form is begging the question.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 108 by robinrohan, posted 10-04-2005 7:33 AM robinrohan has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 117 by Faith, posted 10-04-2005 1:55 PM Silent H has replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 125 of 301 (248904)
10-04-2005 4:56 PM
Reply to: Message 117 by Faith
10-04-2005 1:55 PM


Re: Faith is right
Then why did RAZD indulge in it at all?
He undercut it using examples. If you do not understand this that you are missing what is going on.
how often are all the knowns available when probabilities are calculated about anything whatever?
That is an interesting question, and maybe this will help you understand? Modelling is best done for very narrow systems with a few easily predictable and well understood mechanisms. The less detail it covers the more we are likely to know a bit about what is going on.
For example I have modelling experience in the behavior of molecules. I am not going to get into the technical details but the short of it is that through experiments people found certain behaviors could be predicted using mathematical models, lets say vibration matching a spring moving back and forth, and so oscillation models could be used and we could be confident in them.
Thus we run models with different energy, starting points, and create predictions for scenarios which have not been experimented with yet. You get the results, run experiments and check to see if the model holds. If it does then there is greater confidence in the model.
I really simplified it, but lets leave it at that. Abio and Evo are not narrowly focused situations like vibrations in molecules. We have yet to be suggesting definite routes and environments, and frankly we know very little about chemistry at that scale and variety. Organic chemistry is enormously complex, and we have barely scratched its surface. Modeling some reactions in some very specific environemnts is certainly possible, but to suggest that such models touch on the astounding numbers of environments and chemicals we have yet to learn about is absurd.
And some basic creo and id improbability calculations, are based on some weird idea of chemicals just "coming together" as if it was some homogenous soup of chemicals and random chance is the appropriate mathematical model for their interaction. It's the darndest thing.
how nice it would be if the evolutionists would recognize that that is the case for creationism when they make their haughty demands for a complete theory from them and say it is not science until it exists.
You have missed the point. There is the large theory of evolution which is a general description, that ties together the evidence in a coherent model. Then there are theories about the specific bio-chem mechanisms which could produce the larger scale observations. Attacking the latter does not necessarily effect the former.
Creationism is missing both types of theories. If it at least had the first kind of coherent model, that would at least give it a fighting chance as a science. But it doesn't. There is no coherent model for all the observations we have to explain. And then there is the latter part which patently gives us nothing to work with. What use is it when I try to investigate mechanisms, if I must throw up my hands and say "God's miracle"?
You don't have to have a complete model down to all of the mechanisms in order to have a valid scientific theory. Merely a coherent theory with plausible mechanisms, meaning that we can realistically research them in some way.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 117 by Faith, posted 10-04-2005 1:55 PM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 127 by Faith, posted 10-04-2005 5:41 PM Silent H has replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 140 of 301 (249018)
10-05-2005 6:13 AM
Reply to: Message 136 by Nuggin
10-04-2005 11:57 PM


Re: My answer once again
You claim it's because God squeezed some clay. Others claim it's because Odin's cow vomited us up. Still others believe that we fell from corn. They are all equally plausible. They are all "true".
Oh please, it is quite evident that Atum masturbated within the primordial waters in order to form all life. Not only does that actually fit the evidence evos use (small squiggly life appearing out of nowhere in a primordial sea that was lifeless to later become all life), but it squares with the impossibility calculations.
Now whether it was autofellatio, or whether he had sex with his own shadow, scientists will eventually reach some sort of determination as we get more knowledge.
It is also not possible at this time to determine whether Shu and and Tefnut and their children Geb and Nuit (locked in eternal incestuous copulation) are just myths added on to describe why Atum's seed nurtured here, or whether they were real and it was their frothy mixtures which produced what we see, well that also will be modelled later. In any case the evidence fits.
Pan spermia? Who needs that theory when we already had the KNOWLEDGE of Atum's or Geb's spermia from the beginning of recorded history?

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 136 by Nuggin, posted 10-04-2005 11:57 PM Nuggin has not replied

Silent H
Member (Idle past 5849 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 142 of 301 (249021)
10-05-2005 6:38 AM
Reply to: Message 127 by Faith
10-04-2005 5:41 PM


Re: Back to the methodology conflict
His doing any probability calculations whatever gives credence to that approach, despite the fact that he was trying to demonstrate how wrong the creationist version is. Then finally to declare all probability calculations irrelevant as the fact that life exists is evidence enough for his team is, once again, begging the question.
No, you can actually use a multiprong attack to defeat another's position. In fact it is even more powerful if you can attack a position by both undercutting its very plausibility, as well as to assume its plausibility and show how its use is incorrect.
I am not on a team with RAZD. You can check other threads where we have been in disagreement, including on scientific issues. You are making a mistake in reading what he is saying.
creationist observation that life's springing up out of nowhere is ridiculously improbable.
A model is not an observation. And abio does not assert that life sprang up out of nowhere. In fact, abio suggests that life must have emerged under very specific conditions which may have taken a very long period of time.
Obviously no room for simple common sense when it comes to the very idea that life could just happen
I thought you were arguing for the strength of modelling? What on earth does "common sense" have to do with molecular modelling? That would have to be some very complex stuff. Take an organic chem or biochem course some time.
You guys spend WAY too much time in the laboratory peering at the trees and completely missing the forest.
As compared to never leaving one's armchair staring at a single collection of inkstained pressed woodpulp? My guess is we're a bit closer to the target, some of us even study forests.
I'm not sure how your quote above answered my point that using random probability calcs for chemical dynamics is useless and indeed NOT what is found in nature... or the lab.
I'm sure both can be attacked on their own merits.
Woulda coulda shoulda
I refer you to Ben's attempts to explain that creationism is operating from a completely other frame of reference, and it's time this difference was both recognized and respected if there is to be anything approaching real debate here.
Hey, I recognize the difference. It is a completely different epistemological rule system and have said so myself.
Unfortunately it does mean that it is not modern science. And by the way, when others recognize it is not science and so should not be taught creationists get all flustered and say it SHOULD be in schools as science.
I don't think many here would think that people should be prevented from pursuing creationism or id, just that it should not be passed off as science or the equivalence of science. The hot button issue is that creationists are claiming it is science and trying to suggest evo theory is not proper science. Your "team" needs to make up its mind.
I get very tired of this straw man, which is an argument I have never used and in fact haven't seen other creationists use.
I didn't say you used it, I said creationists did. They most certainly do. But let's say you are right... okey doke... what mechanisms should I be looking for?
Robinrohan recognized this despite disagreeing with creationist methods. The rest of you should recognize it also
Robin was wrong. Just because Robin agrees with you does not make Robin right. I have disagreed with RAZD in other threads and so would be just fine pointing the finger of blame here. Did you not notice me stick it to Percy twice in this very thread for overstating his argument?
As a person who think evo theory is our best paradigm for diversity, and abio our best (though quite tentative) paradigm for life, I do not need to back every single statement made by others who argue in favor of evo or abio. Many have made mistakes, including logical fallacies.
The problem is that in this case RAZD did not. He was discussing the nature of models and he did so correctly.

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 127 by Faith, posted 10-04-2005 5:41 PM Faith has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 143 by Percy, posted 10-05-2005 8:08 AM Silent H has replied

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