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Author Topic:   why is alcohol legal: the george best/opening hours thread
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 78 of 136 (263658)
11-28-2005 1:51 AM
Reply to: Message 68 by RAZD
11-27-2005 3:26 PM


Re: Drink Driving
Being incompetent should be a barrier to getting a license.
Agreed, we should test people before they get a licence.
Demonstrating incompetence, by such things as hitting parked vehicles on slow residential roads, should trigger evaluation of competence.
This kind of incident is very common, in a massive majority of cases it is a one off event, implying a mistake (imperfection) rather than incompetence. I think a better idea would be to allow the police discretionary powers to charge a driver with driving without due care and attention in cases which they feel are the exception to this majority, and then give the courts discretionary powers to give a minor punishment (endorsing a licence (if you have such a thing in the States I do not know), fines, suspension of licence, etc).
The fallacy of popularity?
No. It is simply a fact, and coupled with the idea that in most cases it is a one off event, it seems to indicate that these things are a result of simple one time mistakes.
This just demonstrates a very lax attitude about having competent (and responsible) drivers, not that this is a good thing to occur eh?
You seem to be implying that hitting a parked vehicle has automatically condemned you as being an incompetent and irresponsible driver rather than a imperfect one. A responsible driver stops after an incident, exchanges insurance details and admits liability to their insurer.
btw, do you think that a driver with a record of hitting parked vehicles while sober is likely to be a better driver drunk (or tired or whatever) than a person who hasn't?
A person who has a record of hitting parked vehicles?? This is a different thing than we have been discussing so far. A person with a 'record' implies an incompetent driver (who is probably paying an obscene amount of insurance with an unbelievable excess (or deductable as you might call it), so would (on average) fair worse whilst impaired.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 68 by RAZD, posted 11-27-2005 3:26 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 107 by RAZD, posted 11-28-2005 9:23 PM Modulous has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 79 of 136 (263667)
11-28-2005 4:02 AM
Reply to: Message 70 by macaroniandcheese
11-27-2005 5:51 PM


Insurance
I work in insurance, so its weird to be on EvC as an 'expert'. The funny thing is that basically both schraf and you seem to be right here.
Basically certain factors increase your risk. Driving the vehicle to work every day, driving a high powered vehicle, living in a dodgy area, being a construction worker or footballer, being a young driver, being an inexperienced driver, being male, having driving convictions, etc etc etc.
Some of these factors don't increase your risk of having an accident, but the risk is that any accident you do have will cost more (eg being a footballer means injury claims from passengers will be more likely higher). Some are a combination of the two.
Having any accident increases your premiums, but this is basically regardless of the cost of the claim (YMMV, different insurers might do this differently), and generally involves losing things such as 'no claims discount'...this represents you being a higher risk for being involved in a further accident.
As far as citations and tickets, not all of them will increase everyone's insurance. Many minor convictions are ignored for the first offense (eg speeding, minor traffic violations, parking illegally etc).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 70 by macaroniandcheese, posted 11-27-2005 5:51 PM macaroniandcheese has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 85 by nator, posted 11-28-2005 8:42 AM Modulous has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 80 of 136 (263669)
11-28-2005 4:20 AM
Reply to: Message 71 by Omnivorous
11-27-2005 6:36 PM


Accidents:
As reported in the June issue of Epidemiology, American women were involved in 5.7 crashes per million miles driven. Men, on the other hand, clocked up just 5.1 crashes per million miles. Given the fact that men drive an estimated 74 per cent more miles per year than women, the figure is surprising indeed.
Heh - this is getting off topic
Still this confuses me. Why is it suprising that a group which has extra driving experience has fewer accidents? Surely the figure is surprising, but not because men drive more.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 71 by Omnivorous, posted 11-27-2005 6:36 PM Omnivorous has not replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 81 of 136 (263672)
11-28-2005 4:47 AM
Reply to: Message 74 by macaroniandcheese
11-27-2005 10:57 PM


Re: ADHD
i just happen to look around me instead of trusting statistics.
Heh - its that kind of thing that leads people to believe that black people are stupid, or left handed people prone to domestic violence or other silly things. You can't accept a small sample just because it is the sample you happened to look at unfortunately, the chances are that you do not have a representative sample.
i know the kind of things statistics can be twisted into
Then you know that small sample sizes interpreted subjectively are a great way to twist statistics.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 74 by macaroniandcheese, posted 11-27-2005 10:57 PM macaroniandcheese has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 86 by macaroniandcheese, posted 11-28-2005 8:49 AM Modulous has not replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 101 of 136 (263741)
11-28-2005 10:55 AM
Reply to: Message 85 by nator
11-28-2005 8:42 AM


Re: Insurance
Hey, do your rates go up if the accident was not your fault at all?
Like, if you were driving along and someone pulls out of a driveway and hits you broadside?
Your rates go up if your insurance pays money out for any damages and cannot recover them. If an incident was not your fault, ideally your insurance company will be able to recover the costs, but this is not always the case.
The best advice is to try and claim from the third party's (the person at fault) insurance company first, if you have time. That way your own insurance company should hopefully not pay any money out. You can also reimburse your own insurance company if it turns out cheaper to do that than shoulder the premium rise.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 85 by nator, posted 11-28-2005 8:42 AM nator has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 102 by Omnivorous, posted 11-28-2005 11:23 AM Modulous has not replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 109 of 136 (263995)
11-29-2005 2:49 AM
Reply to: Message 107 by RAZD
11-28-2005 9:23 PM


mistakes, they just add up
Being common does not excuse it: that is just the fallacy of popularity. Just because it happens a lot it is okay??? Heck spousal abuse is not a problem then.
Yes RAZD, that was exactly my point, well done for picking up on it, I'm trying to sneak spousal abuse through as socially acceptable. Oh wait, spousal abuse is a deliberate act and not called an accident. I think you'll find my actual point was something about mistakes. It was about incompetence versus imperfection.
What's the excuse?
As I said it depends. It could have been a simple error, your maths is all very nice, all it concludes is that whatever error was made occurred within braking distance, or the error involved increasing the breaking distance (for example if he took 2.5s to look in the mirror and back (including focusing times), he's travelled almost 75 feet, that leaves him with 25feet within which to brake, which can be reduced as appropriate depending on how long he had been on the road when he checked his mirrors).
It could be that he was incompetent. The numbers we'll need are how many miles this driver has driven, how many fault accidents he's been involved in, how many fault accidents he has succesfully avoided? How many parked vehicles as he not hit?
Once we have those kinds of figures, we'll need to discuss what figures would be defined as incompetent. The study reported earlier seems to believe that the average is about 1 accident every 200,000 miles, at an average of 30mph that's an error that leads to an accident once every 6,600 hours. If you drive 4 hours a day (quite a lot) then we are looking at an accident every 4 and a half years.
We could get all six sigma about this and try to estimate how many opportunities to be involved in an accident there were in those 4 and a half years. Six sigma 'perfection' requires no more than 3.4 defects per million opportunities. If the average driver has about 5 accidents per million miles (and there are plenty of opportunities to have an accident per mile, surely) I think we can tentatively conclude that if six sigma is the standard, then the average driver is not incompetent at all.
No, I am really equating {drinking and driving}, and {driving in an unsafe manner} with being irresponsible (and stopping afterwards is only part of responsibility ... you can be responsible before an event, not just after it).
Well the equation is fairly self-apparant. Driving in an unsafe manner is obviously irresponsible.
I am also saying that the standards for good driving and for road design takes care of the expected imperfections in control that are involved. And that anything beyond the expected imperfections is due to incompetence - inability to meet the norm of average behavior that the roads are more than adequately designed for.
So the standards for good driving and road design are perfect? What are the expected imperfections? You condemn somebody for hitting your parked vehicle of being incompetent despite the fact that almost everybody is involved in a fault accident at some time in their life, and given this person was driving to work, their mileage may well be high. The 'norm of average behaviour' is to be involved in several fault accidents over the course of your life.
With that in mind, how can you call somebody incompetent without considering his accident history?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 107 by RAZD, posted 11-28-2005 9:23 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 110 by RAZD, posted 11-29-2005 7:30 AM Modulous has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 111 of 136 (264065)
11-29-2005 9:35 AM
Reply to: Message 110 by RAZD
11-29-2005 7:30 AM


Re: mistakes, they just add up
Ah, then "Brownie" wasn't incompetent. Glad that is sorted out...
First an erroneous comparison to spousal abuse now an erroneous comparison to disaster management.
It is simple - he failed to miss a parked car with more than apple opportunity for anyone driving in a responsible manner
He did fail to miss a parked car...as far as we know he failed to miss one parked car out of 10 million parked cars, that's a pretty good record for not hitting parked cars. If I was looking at the data of parked car related incidents, I would regard this gentleman's car hitting incident to be an outlier, and judge it to be a mistake. An error. Every human on this planet makes errors (except maybe bren), some mistakes make you look dumb, some mistakes end up damaging things (am I an incompetent walker if I lose balance for a moment and knock over a glass, after 15 years of incident free walking?), if you make lots of mistakes it shows you are incompetent.
Or do you really think that all drivers are competent enough for the purpose and a constant level of damage to vehicles is a mark of this competence?
Are you doing this deliberately? Yes, RAZD, of course, I believe that consistently causing damage to other vehicles is a mark of competence because I believe that occasionally making a mistake whilst driving that leads to damage is an expected risk due to human error.
No RAZD. My position is clear.
People make mistakes.
Those mistakes can result in absolutely no damage.
Those mistakes can result in damage to third parties
Making a mistake does not make you incompetent.
You have not been able differentiate between this man having made a mistake and him being an incompetent driver. My previous posts set up possible ways we can start to make this distinction.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 110 by RAZD, posted 11-29-2005 7:30 AM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 113 by RAZD, posted 11-29-2005 6:11 PM Modulous has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 114 of 136 (264373)
11-30-2005 2:42 AM
Reply to: Message 113 by RAZD
11-29-2005 6:11 PM


Re: mistakes, they just add up
No, the first is an alternate example of something that is common, showing that your argument that something is common is not any reason for it to be considered acceptable or good in any way.
Not suggesting that a common event should be considered acceptable. Very common accidents are not comparable to less common (but still too common) deliberate acts of violence. What makes it 'acceptable' is that it is a mistake.
Most people will have a fault accident in their vehicle (it is common); you are suggesting that most people are incompetent drivers. A position I have tried to show as erroneous, by discussing accident frequency and opportunities for fault, which you haven't addressed.
Fascinating. So 100% of american drivers are competent to drive?
RAZD, if you read what I actually said, you'll find the answer to that question. I'm trying to work out why you seem to have devolved your debating style ten years. The full quote, Mr Quote Miner, is:
quote:
Yes, RAZD, of course, I believe that consistently causing damage to other vehicles is a mark of competence because I believe that occasionally making a mistake whilst driving that leads to damage is an expected risk due to human error.
No RAZD.
The first half of the sentence is the conclusion you somehow reached given my position outlined in the second half. The final sentence is my respsonse to your rather bizarre false dichotomy in Message 110
This message has been edited by Modulous, Wed, 30-November-2005 07:52 AM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 113 by RAZD, posted 11-29-2005 6:11 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 118 by RAZD, posted 11-30-2005 6:41 PM Modulous has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 119 of 136 (264675)
12-01-2005 7:53 AM
Reply to: Message 118 by RAZD
11-30-2005 6:41 PM


Re: mistakes, they just add up
The person in question did not just make a mistake, they made a definite error in judgment.
Isn't an error in judgment a mistake? Its certainly an error, and an error I thought was fairly synonymous with mistake.
This is not a case of barely bumping the car ahead at the light or while parking or any other little nudges that occur, this was a full on impact that was beyond the capability of the bumpers to contain the forces.
So the speed at which an error occurs or the distance from another car a person is when they make a mistake transforms it from an error into incompetence?
Your continued comparison of this to lots of common little nudges and side swipes is a false comparison and does not address the issue of this persons failures.
I only know of one failing that this person has made, I tried to discuss other failings this person made, but it appears you didn't know about them either. As I have said, if they were travelling at 20mph and looking in their mirror for 2.5 seconds, whilst drifting off course they can do a significant amount of damage. Wet feet slipping on pedals, a sneezing fit, glaring sunlight, concentrating on one thing to the detriment of another, being in too much of a hurry or driving too close to other vehicles, all these things are driving errors that just about everyone is guilty of from time to time. In the majority of cases no damage is done, or the error is rectified quick enough to avoid an accident.
This is similar to saying that all people get their cheeks patted from time to time, so getting slapped is okay too.
Its actually nothing like it, patting cheeks and slapping are both deliberate acts. Its more like saying everybody makes mistakes, we are all liable for any damage caused by those mistakes. What you are trying to say is that everybody drops merchandise in shops, so dropping a vase is not a sign of incompetence.
Are you honestly saying there should be no consequences for a driver that performs that badly?
Did I say that at any point? Or have I said the opposite? I believe Message 78 should clear this up for us:
quote:
This kind of incident is very common, in a massive majority of cases it is a one off event, implying a mistake (imperfection) rather than incompetence. I think a better idea would be to allow the police discretionary powers to charge a driver with driving without due care and attention in cases which they feel are the exception to this majority, and then give the courts discretionary powers to give a minor punishment (endorsing a licence (if you have such a thing in the States I do not know), fines, suspension of licence, etc).
As far as I am concerned this person was incompetent to drive because they displayed the kind of error in judgement that could easily result in serious injury or death in other situations.
An interesting criteria, but I feel it is flawed. Hitting a parked car at 20mph or near to it is very very very rarely going to cause death, though minor injuries are a possibility. If it had been oncoming the chances are higher, but would this person had made the error if traffic conditions were changed to this extent? We don't know, it is absolute conjecture.
You have said nothing to convince me otherwise.
And likewise, you have not done a thing to convince me that your tiny tiny sample size of 30 seconds of this person's driving experience is indicative of his driving skill. I have tried to put forward criteria such as parked cars missed vs parked cars hit. I have tried to compare this man's driving to the average of other drivers. It could be that he has had five times less accidents than your neighbour, or Joe Average. You have not provided any actual evidence that the accident was caused by incompetence rather than as the result of a one off error.
You'll have to trust me when I tell you that I deal with a dozen accidents a day; I hear about this kind of incident and the plethora of reasons behind them, some bullshit, some sincere. On the grand majority of incidents like this it is a one off event, for which they are embarassed and upset about. Sometimes someone will tell me that the person was 'parked wrong' or some crap like that. That's the first indication of an incompetent driver, someone who won't accept that it was their fault, accept responsibility and move on. And it is these kinds of people that more frequently have mulitple claims on their files.
If your man had this kind of attitude then perhaps he was incompetent, thought more data would be needed than your obviously biased opinion.
With this post I am done with this topic, as it is so far off topic anyway.
No worries, if you want to discuss it any further and want to be on topic, feel free to start a coffee house topic

This message is a reply to:
 Message 118 by RAZD, posted 11-30-2005 6:41 PM RAZD has not replied

  
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