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Author Topic:   The Science in Creationism
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 922 of 986 (784769)
05-22-2016 11:01 PM
Reply to: Message 920 by Faith
05-22-2016 9:56 PM


Re: Tracking a population split mathematically
Since I am mathematically challenged my efforts to construct a similar sequence of possibilities keep coming to nothing, but yours is far from adequate because the only change you've noted in the original split is the loss of one allele, but in any real split there is going to be a complete new mix of alleles, a new set of gene/allele frequencies.
But the numbers are not important to the argument. Population size isn't really relevant, since there is nothing that I have described that couldn't happen in a large population, or couldn't happen in a medium-sized population, or that couldn't happen in a small population so long as it's large enough to be viable at all. And since all I'm trying to get through to you is the sort of thing that could happen, the population sizes don't matter. In the same way, the only allele frequency that even affects the likelihood of the scenario is that of f₂.
Heck, make up some numbers yourself. Pick some number so that P is initially large, so that Q was initially small enough (or the incidence of f₂ is low enough) that it's plausible that we lost the allele f₂, and so that the island is large and fertile enough that Q quickly grew to be considerably larger than it was originally.
If the split was more equal then you are going to have to reckon with new gene frequencies in both populations, and that means it won't only be Q that develops new phenotypes but also P ...
Sure, yes, increasing the total genetic diversity still further. You may be interested in this bit of math I did.
But keeping track of these numbers would be the main work in the laboratory experiment I've often proposed to test my expectation of reduced genetic diversity, tracking each individual and its offspring over many generations through many population splits, with DNA samples tested at certain points.
You mean like the Lenski experiment?
---
While doing the math with algebra and, God forbid, calculus, is forbidding in all but the simplest cases, it is easy enough to simulate the behavior of a population on a computer; and by doing that let's say a thousand times and averaging, to get nice curves showing the average behavior of the population. I have often done this before, though never to demonstrate the bleedin' obvious, and I guess I could do it again. (The one constraint is computer time: the populations and the number of genes need to be reasonably small, say 10 genes and a population in the low hundreds, so the program doesn't take a stupidly long time to run.)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 920 by Faith, posted 05-22-2016 9:56 PM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 923 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 12:12 AM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 924 of 986 (784771)
05-23-2016 12:26 AM
Reply to: Message 923 by Faith
05-23-2016 12:12 AM


Re: Tracking a population split mathematically
I don't think you have the reality of a population split in mind. The likelihood of getting the same proportion of alleles in the daughter population as in the parent is just about nil. And except for your one drop-out that's what you have.
No, apart from f₂ I didn't mention the allele frequencies, and it is irrelevant what they are. They can be what you like, so long as we don't get all of one kind of allele in Q, leaving P bereft of that allele, because that would be a different example. My only supposition is that one in three of the heterozygous alleles would become homogeneous due to the founder effect, which I put in because I thought it would be nice to have the founder effect as one of the processes. The remaining details of allele frequencies are immaterial, which is why I didn't mention them.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 923 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 12:12 AM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 926 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 12:44 AM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 928 of 986 (784775)
05-23-2016 1:02 AM
Reply to: Message 926 by Faith
05-23-2016 12:44 AM


Re: Tracking a population split mathematically
The allele frequencies are the most important thing because that's what makes the changes that bring about the new subspecies. Change in allele frequencies is the definition of evolution according to some.
And I have noted the changes in allele frequency but not quantified them. If you like, I will go back and make up numbers for the allele frequencies, but perhaps first you would like to explain what I would prove by doing so.
You can't prove anything with your unrealistic representation.
What is unrealistic about it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 926 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 12:44 AM Faith has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 929 of 986 (784776)
05-23-2016 1:03 AM
Reply to: Message 925 by Dawn Bertot
05-23-2016 12:42 AM


Show Us The Evidence
I'm saying both, that is science initially and primarily overall an investigation and secondly that the the science in creationism or creation is the intricate design detected by simple observation.
Do you have any evidence for this design of which you speak?
If so, please show us the evidence.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 925 by Dawn Bertot, posted 05-23-2016 12:42 AM Dawn Bertot has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 930 of 986 (784777)
05-23-2016 1:28 AM
Reply to: Message 926 by Faith
05-23-2016 12:44 AM


Some Made-Up Numbers For Faith
Here, my hypothetical example now has hypothetical allele frequencies. This adds nothing to the example except illegibility, but you asked for them, so here they are:
Let's start with:
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 50% d₁, 50% d₂, 60% e₁, 40% e₂, 90% f₁, 10% f₂}
Now let a subpopulation of P get swept out to sea and deposited on an island, giving us population Q. Since you like the founder effect, let's suppose that the founders of Q have no examples of f₂.
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 49% d₁, 51% d₂, 64% e₁, 36% e₂, 89% f₁, 11% f₂}
Q = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 60% d₁, 40% d₂, 20% e₁, 80% e₂, 100% f₁}
Note that this does not make Q a new variety, since there is no animal in Q that couldn't be found in P.
Now let a mutation produce a new allele b₂ in Q. It is neutral and does not achieve fixation but fluctuates in the gene pool.
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 48% d₁, 52% d₂, 62% e₁, 38% e₂, 88% f₁, 12% f₂}
Q = {100% a₁, 77% b₁, 23% b₂, 100% c₁, 61% d₁, 39% d₂, 19% e₁, 81% e₂, 100% f₁}
Now there are some members of Q that look different from anything in P, but by no means all.
Now let a mutation a₂ arise in Q ...
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 48% d₁, 52% d₂, 61% e₁, 39% e₂, 88% f₁, 12% f₂}
Q = {99% a₁, 1% a₂, 77% b₁, 23% b₂, 100% c₁, 62% d₁, 38% d₂, 20% e₁, 80% e₂, 100% f₁}
... which is favored by natural selection and is fixed in the population ...
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 47% d₁, 53% d₂, 61% e₁, 39% e₂, 88% f₁, 12% f₂}
Q = {100% a₂, 76% b₁, 24% b₂, 100% c₁, 62% d₁, 38% d₂, 22% e₁, 78% e₂, 100% f₁}
Now we have one trait which allows us to distinguish P from Q. There is no reason why the same thing shouldn't happen to gene c: an allele c₂ arises in Q ...
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 47% d₁, 53% d₂, 61% e₁, 39% e₂, 88% f₁, 12% f₂}
Q = {100% a₂, 76% b₁, 24% b₂, 99% c₁, 1% c₂, 60% d₁, 40% d₂, 21% e₁, 79% e₂, 100% f₁}
... and being better suited to the island, displaces c₁ ...
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 46% d₁, 54% d₂, 58% e₁, 42% e₂, 88% f₁, 12% f₂}
Q = {100% a₂, 75% b₁, 25% b₂, 100% c₂, 60% d₁, 40% d₂, 22% e₁, 78% e₂, 100% f₁}
Then let a new allele e₃ be produced ...
P = {100% a₁, 100% b₁, 100% c₁, 45% d₁, 55% d₂, 58% e₁, 42% e₂, 87% f₁, 13% f₂}
Q = {100% a₂, 75% b₁, 25% b₂, 100% c₂, 60% d₁, 40% d₂, 22% e₁, 77% e₂, 1% e₃, 100% f₁}
The conclusion is of course exactly the same as in the original example, since the conclusion does not in any way refer to the frequencies of alleles but only to their presence or absence.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 926 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 12:44 AM Faith has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 934 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 9:45 AM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 939 of 986 (784790)
05-23-2016 11:07 AM
Reply to: Message 934 by Faith
05-23-2016 9:45 AM


Re: Some Made-Up Numbers For Faith
They sure are made up. That's almost funny how you put yourself out to justify your own opinion. What I said to your last post still stands, you have no sense of how a population split would lead to a new subspecies -- over time, not immediately because the new gene frequencies have to be worked through the population down a number of generations to see the effect.
Feel free to interpolate between the stages I showed you. Happy now?
And all you are doing is making up a phony scenario to justify your own belief system.
Yeah, it's a hypothetical example. I said. But it shows how given known processes --- mutation, drift, selection, and the founder effect --- you can get new varieties by these mechanisms rather than by whatever mechanism you're postulating in your head, and get them without a net loss of genetic diversity.
Unless you can point to any of the processes and say: "But that couldn't happen because ...", or point to any of the two stages and say "But you can't get from there to there because ...", then you need to concede that this is the sort of thing that could happen.
1) Even if mutations did play a part, that wouldn't happen fast enough to make a difference in the population, and 2) it wouldn't happen in anything like the numbers you imagine, and 3) if they did play a part, as I keep saying, they are only going to be incorporated or cut down like any other allele, and in the end the whole shebang has to run out of genetic diversity even if a mutation is part of the finished subspecies.
Show your working. If you're going to pretend to have a quantitative argument, you need to have some actual figures, maybe some actual math.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 934 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 9:45 AM Faith has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 940 of 986 (784791)
05-23-2016 11:10 AM
Reply to: Message 936 by Faith
05-23-2016 10:49 AM


Re: Some Made-Up Numbers For Faith
1) Cuz makin new species costs alleles ...
Making new species does not necessarily cost net alleles, as has been amply demonstrated.
2) if you guys were honest about it you'd have to admit mutations couldn't do what the ToE requires them to do anyway.
Geneticists think different. You remember geneticists? Those people who study genetics? And who disagree with you, a person whose knowledge of genetics is so nugatory that I have more than once seen you try and fail to define the word "mutation".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 936 by Faith, posted 05-23-2016 10:49 AM Faith has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 949 of 986 (784839)
05-24-2016 10:01 AM
Reply to: Message 944 by Dawn Bertot
05-24-2016 12:22 AM


Show Us The Evidence
Oh I think you do,ive,stated it 1000 times now. It's the science of investigation by observation of simple undeniable truths, that don't need involved processess. These help me establish my conclusion of a designer or creator
When you can demonstrate my processes needs to be involved to support my conclusion, then you will have,won the discussion
I don't know what you mean by "involved", but your "process" does need to involve showing us some evidence.
SHow us the evidence.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 944 by Dawn Bertot, posted 05-24-2016 12:22 AM Dawn Bertot has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 964 of 986 (784983)
05-26-2016 10:16 PM
Reply to: Message 962 by Dawn Bertot
05-26-2016 8:50 PM


Still No Evidence
I observe that Dawn's "last summary note" contains absolutely no evidence for creationism.
In this respect it is indeed the perfect summary of Dawn's posts.
At least Faith tried, though trying the same thing that failed the last half dozen times looks less like enterprise and more like obstinacy, or indeed amnesia. Still, at least she can communicate her trivial errors in the English language, whereas Dawn cannot.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 962 by Dawn Bertot, posted 05-26-2016 8:50 PM Dawn Bertot has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 966 by Dawn Bertot, posted 05-26-2016 10:39 PM Dr Adequate has replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 978 of 986 (785158)
05-28-2016 11:53 AM
Reply to: Message 966 by Dawn Bertot
05-26-2016 10:39 PM


Re: Still No Evidence
So then you can provide a chain of causality from the brain to consciouness, correct? If not then you did not read what I wrote.
So provide the scientific method that shows us the link and chain of causality, please, I'm all ears
Dawn Bertot
So, you still have no evidence for creationism?
But I notice that you do have incoherent off-topic whining.
Wouldn't you rather have evidence?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 966 by Dawn Bertot, posted 05-26-2016 10:39 PM Dawn Bertot has not replied

  
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 315 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 985 of 986 (785254)
06-01-2016 4:25 AM


Summary: No Evidence, No Science
Dawn has demonstrated no evidence in favor of creationism, despite being asked to do so about a jillion times.
This is a strange way to behave: someone who wants to pretend that creationism is scientific would be well advised to pretend to have some evidence for it.

  
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