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Author Topic:   The future of marriage
PaulK
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Posts: 17828
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 3 of 308 (378299)
01-20-2007 5:26 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Hyroglyphx
01-20-2007 12:16 AM


I think that your analysis has some problems. Firstly I notice that you don't include any mention of married couples who are currently seperated - whether as a trial or while waiting for a divorce. That in itself biases your figures.
Let's look at your analysis
quote:
he US Census Bureau estimates that, as of 2001, 82.5% of all women over the age of 15 have been married. Of that number, 58.1 percent of women are currently married. Therefore, from the get-go, there is a serious discrepancy in the number of women living without spouse according to the NYT. However, the U.S. Census Bureau records the number of women currently divorced in this country at 23.1%, which means that 76.9% of all women are either married or single. Since we already know that 58.1% of all women are currently married, we subtract 58.1% from 76.9% to arrive at a reasonable percentage of women who are living without a spouse at 18.8%. Wow! That's an enormous discrepancy-- so off the mark, in fact, that it would be reasonable request that they retract the article.
58.1% currently married means that 41.2% are not currently married. An unmarried woman cannot be living with a spouse - but a married woman may be living without one. The correct figure therefore must be at least 41.2% - not your 18.8%. The NYT figure can't be ruled out here because we only have a minimum of 41.2% which it exceeds.
So lets look at what you did wrong.
Firstly you calculated the percentage of women who are married or single by subtracting the percentage of divorced women from 100%. That in itself makes a lot of assumptions (notably that the divorced figure excludes those who are currently married and that "single" refers to widows and those who have never married) but we'll asusme that that is correct for the sake of argument. Then you subtract form that the percentage of women who are currently married, which leaves you the percentage of "single" women (those who have never married or are widowed).
The NYT figure is the percentage of woemn who are not living with a spouse. This will include the number who don't have a spouse becuase they are divorced - so you have to add in the percentage of divorcees again. Which gets you back to the 41.2% figure. ANd it has to include the percentage of women who are currently married but don't presently live with their husband - which you have yet to account for.
So in fact we know that your analysis is wrong, and we don't have the figures needed to prove the NYT wrong. I suggest that you retract your analysis and try to do it again - correctly this time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Hyroglyphx, posted 01-20-2007 12:16 AM Hyroglyphx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by Hyroglyphx, posted 01-20-2007 10:57 AM PaulK has replied

PaulK
Member
Posts: 17828
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 13 of 308 (378378)
01-20-2007 2:01 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Hyroglyphx
01-20-2007 10:57 AM


Re: Fleshing it out
quote:
But that's actually a part of my argument, which I forgot to add to my thread. The title is called "51% of women now living without a spouse." The problem is in the wording and I wouldn't hesitate to say that its deliberate
It seems to me that the wording is quite accurate. And it's clearly explained in the article. I can't see any valid reason for your insinuations. I might as well accuse you of using the usual conservative smear-tactics.
quote:
My figures derive from the US Census whose only function is to keep statistical figures. They already did the math, I'm simply relaying those tabulated figures for everyone to see in a very clear manner that NYT's distorted and convoluted their own article.
The figures you used as a basis for calculation came from the US Census. However you did your own calculations as well - and you did not provide the definitions of the figures (which are required if you are use them to be effective. Does the "divorced women" figure only include women who have divorced and not remarried. It matters to your calculations but you never bothered to say?)
quote:
LOL! PaulK, lets think about this from a logic point of view.
OK let's. From a logic point of view does it make sense to say that divorced women - who do not have a spouse - are living with their spouse ? That's what you said. Does it even make sense to say that all married women - including those seperated and waiting for divorce are living with their spouse ? That's what you said.
And now you laugh when I point out that you're wrong ? You don't even admit your error, nor try to do the calculation correctly ?
quote:
Who wants to read about women that aren't currently living with their spouse? Nobody.
So this is what you are getting upset about ? A boring article that nobody wants to read ?
quote:
The blatant assertion is that women are throwing off the archaic shackles of marriage in droves and abandoning traditional values in an attempt to forge a new way of life. Let me ask you something. Do you think its acceptable to add 15 year old girls in that? Do you think its acceptable to add widows, who have been married for 60 years until her husband died in that figure? Do you think its right to include military wives in that figure whose husbands are on deployment? The only one's who should be legitimately considered are single women and divorced women who have no aspirations to marry again.
If 15 year old girls are permitted to marry they certainly should be included. The US Census seems to think it made sense. You tried to justify your claims by alledgeing that the US Census did the math - when in fact not one of the things I criticised was directly due to the US Census. If it's even a potentially valid explanation for you then it is a valid explanation for the NYT.
Should we include elderly widows ? If the NYT is pointing to an increase in the figure then it is certainly valid to do so - after all they would have been included in the older figures. And 60 year old widows can and do remarry.
Should we include military wives ? If the issue is living without a spouse then it seems like a good idea - after all a spouse who is absent for long periods will affect the lifestyle. And again such families would have been included in the older figures.
Even your quotes from the articls make it clear that they are talking about a "statisitical shift" - a change in the figures.
quote:
And then they try to cover their tracks, sort of, but then lay it all out for us as plain as day:
i.e. if you actually read the article the facts about the figures they use are clearly laid out. Which really pulls the rug from under any claim that it represents a serious attempt to mislead.
quote:
Now let me ask your personal opinion. What is the motivation for such an article?
As far as I can see the editors thought their readers might be interested. in the fact that women were increasingly living without a spouse - whether through not being currently married or through having a spouse absent from home for long periods (something that is probably less common now then it would have been even a few decades ago).
What's more interesting is the motivation for your attacks which rest on playing with the figures which made no sense, trying to blame the US Census, laughing at corrections and not even attempting to do the correct calculations. The rest seems to be paranoid speculations about the motivations behind the article.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by Hyroglyphx, posted 01-20-2007 10:57 AM Hyroglyphx has not replied

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