Good luck with the long shot I will go with the higher probability every time.
7 March 2012 — the D‘ and CDF Collaborations announced that they found excesses that might be interpreted as coming from a Higgs boson with a mass in the region of 115 to 135 GeV/c2 in the full sample of data from Tevatron. The significance of the excesses is quantified as 2.2 standard deviations, corresponding to a 1 in 250 probability of being due to a statistical fluctuation. This is a lower significance, but consistent with and independent of the ATLAS and CMS data at the LHC.
Go on then. Go with the higher probability.
You do realise that 250 is a little bit higher than 1, right?
Mutate and Survive