Panda writes:
Perhaps this example might explain the problems I have with your idea:
In the Olympics there is the 100m event where the fastest athletes compete for gold.
They are all 100% dedicated and driven and confident.
So why doesn't the race end in a draw?
Perhaps the analogy of the downhill skiers is more relevant.
In that sport the race happens over several minutes but the winner often wins by hundredths of a second. In that respect the winner is simply luckier than the closest looser; he just avoided that one invisible bump that made the difference.
But i can absolutely guarantee that the loser will beat me by a large margin every time - that isn't luck and no amount of trying to convince myself that i can win can change that.
On the other hand, if all other things are equal, the winner is more likely to be someone who believes that he can win, rather that someone who belives that he never can.
Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android