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Author Topic:   Dissecting the Evolutionist Approach to Explanation and Persuation
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 79 of 255 (293347)
03-08-2006 3:08 PM


Confirmation Bias
There's a clever term for all this: Confirmation Bias.
Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs.
Twice now Faith has done tests on these boards in relation to confirmation bias. Both times she has shown that she does it (its quite common and not a reflection of intelligence). However, this is what we see in Faith's evidences. If there was a Global Flood we would see Fossils all over the place, she's right, but let me take the baton of analogy and run with it.
I can't remember who it was (and I'm on a laptop with no mouse, so I'm not going to check), but whoever it was above mentioned a murder scene. Let's play sliding doors:


Forensic scientist: Almost missed the train today. phew. Anyway, to business. The house owner's fingerprints were found all over the place. Then again, it is his house, so that could be explained in other ways. Also we have his passport which shows that he was out of the country at the time of the incident, which falsifies the idea that it was him that committed the murder. Also, the house owner is very ill at the moment according to German hospital records (where he is bedridden according to the same records).
There is a partial print that matches a rapist's, a size 15 foot print matches the rapist's trainers.
Let's hall him in and get some answers.
****Sliding doors*****
Confirmation Biased Forensic scientist: The normal guy isn't in today, he missed his train. OK, so the house owner's fingerprints are all over the place, exactly what we'd expect to see if he was the killer. The other fingerprints are a piece of data that is problematic for my model but my theory is more elegant and parsimonious.
I knew it had to the house owner anyway, the I Ching said that the house owner would rise against his fellow with flashing blade. It was a knife that killed him so it all fits together.
It's all speculation anyway because we don't have a witness, and we can hardly test the past. Bring me the owner.

This confirmation bias makes it very difficult to discuss the subject fully. When somebody considers something evidence of an event which they happen to believe in strongly, they have a tendency to simply not see or regard all the evidence that contradicts the model. Therein lies the differences in the approaches. Evolutionists look for evidence against something, and if it can't be found, and evidence for it can, then we've got something interesting to explore. Creationists look for evidence that confirms their beliefs and dismiss evidence that couldn't be there if their beliefs were true. Usually by saying that it will be explained later, or that the evidence is not being correctly interpreted.
From the definition I linked above:
See also ad hoc hypothesis, cognitive dissonance, communal reinforcement, control study, selective thinking, and self-deception.
The only real option for us Evolutionists is to point out this confirmation bias in the hopes that it will be seen and understood by those who are not as clouded by it.

Replies to this message:
 Message 83 by Faith, posted 03-08-2006 3:16 PM Modulous has replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 120 of 255 (293519)
03-09-2006 1:49 AM
Reply to: Message 83 by Faith
03-08-2006 3:16 PM


Re: Something being overlooked
But the Flood explains it all wonderfully. Elegantly. Parsimoniously.
My point (which may or may not be being overlooked here) is that you ignore or disregard the evidence/data which is problematic to the flood. Data that could not exist if a flood happened, unless some very unparsimonious explanations are added ad hoc.
The flood explains it wonderfully and elegantly as long as most of the data is ignored. To me, that is not a good explanation, and sounds like confirmation bias.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 83 by Faith, posted 03-08-2006 3:16 PM Faith has not replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 124 of 255 (293525)
03-09-2006 3:56 AM
Reply to: Message 122 by rgb
03-09-2006 3:43 AM


Re: What does it relate too?
Have you guys tried the baby step approach with Faith?
Kind of, but I imagine it might not be considered baby steps.
Thread 1
Thread 2
I'm sure there have been a couple of others, but I can't see them. The attempt to discuss the issues without piling on etc has been made, though 'baby steps' might not be the appropriate word for the efforts.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 122 by rgb, posted 03-09-2006 3:43 AM rgb has not replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 153 of 255 (293585)
03-09-2006 10:29 AM
Reply to: Message 137 by robinrohan
03-09-2006 9:50 AM


beware the ideas of mark's
If you are able to tell the result of something, before it happens using a theory, its called prediction. You predict the way something is going to turn out.
quote:
"It will be determined to what extent the phylogenetic tree, as derived from molecular data in complete independence from the results of organismal biology, coincides with the phylogenetic tree constructed on the basis of organismal biology. If the two phylogenetic trees are mostly in agreement with respect to the topology of branching, the best available single proof of the reality of macro-evolution would be furnished. Indeed, only the theory of evolution, combined with the realization that events at any supramolecular level are consistent with molecular events, could reasonably account for such a congruence
Emile Zuckerkandl and Linus Pauling, 1965
To translate. If ToE is true and if Evolution happened then we should see congruence. The theory predicts this congruence, before the congruence is tested. This is a prediction.
It is also a falsification test. If it turned out some other way, ToE would be in serious trouble.
I think this line of thinking - what makes a scientific prediction a prediction - would make an intereting topic if you want to discuss it further?


I don't agree with the subtitle so much, but the pun came to me and I had to use it. Sorry.
This message has been edited by Modulous, Thu, 09-March-2006 03:32 PM

This message is a reply to:
 Message 137 by robinrohan, posted 03-09-2006 9:50 AM robinrohan has not replied

Replies to this message:
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 Message 156 by Faith, posted 03-09-2006 10:37 AM Modulous has not replied

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