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Author Topic:   evolution calculations
JonF
Member (Idle past 198 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 44 of 92 (184196)
02-09-2005 6:51 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by Saddleback
02-09-2005 5:57 PM


Re: Fundamental Issue: Origin and Formation of Information
Mathematician William Dembski calculated that if the probability of something occurring is less than one in 10 to the 150th power, it has no possibility of happening by chance at any time by any conceivable process throughout all of cosmic history.
Dembski has, alas, abandoned mathematics for lunacy.
You have his bound wrong ... it's supposed to be 1 in 10500. Either way it's ludicrously wrong. Get four decks of cards. Shuffle them together. Lay them out face up on the floor. The probability of the arrangement you are looking at is much less than 1 in 10500. Reflect on whether the arrangement you are looking at is possible or impossible. Reflect on whether the event you just witnessed happened by chance at any time. (Hint: the answers are "possible" and "yes", respectively.) You can witness events that you claim are impossible in your own home!
He further estimates that the probability of evolving the first cell is no better than one in 10 to the 4,478,146 power.
Garbage in, garbage out. Nobody knows enough to calculate the probability of the first cell evolving. Dembski calculated the probability of the first cell appearing by chance (which no-one proposes as a possibility) rather than evolution (which is far more than chance). He compounded his mistake by assuming a particular way in which the cell assembled by chance instead of considering all possilbe ways, making an already wrong calculation even more wrong. (Of course, nobody knows all the ways that a cell could have assembled by chance, either).
All such calculations are wrong, no matter who does them.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by Saddleback, posted 02-09-2005 5:57 PM Saddleback has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 50 by Saddleback, posted 02-09-2005 7:26 PM JonF has replied

  
JonF
Member (Idle past 198 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 53 of 92 (184227)
02-09-2005 8:02 PM
Reply to: Message 50 by Saddleback
02-09-2005 7:26 PM


Re: Fundamental Issue: Origin and Formation of Information
Went right over your head, huh?
But if the best evolutionists can propose is the "yes" suggestion that everything is possible because nothing is impossible,
That is not the best evolutuionists can propose. Some of the real best that evolutionists propose has already been ignored by you in this thread.
Dembski is making a very clear argument with detailed calculations for all to enjoy and critique.
Yup. And it's been critiqued. It's garbage in, garbage out.
Of course, it must be "lunacy" if he uses valid scientific models and calcualtions to question the foudations of evolution.
No, that would not be lunacy. That would be science. Unfortunately, it's not what Debmbski has done or is doing.
When Dembski first started I thought he was honestly trying to develop a science, and was really interested and wished him well. He's done a lot since then, and each bit has been worse and more riddled with errors than the last. He's a laughing-stock. His calculations are meaningless for so many reasons it's difficult to list them all.
I remembered. BTW, that he has never calculated the probability of a cell assembling, so I would appreciate it if you would post the source of your claim that he did.
Not a Free Lunch But a Box of Chocolates and The advantages of theft over toil: the design inference and arguing from ignorance are good critiques. The former summarizes No Free Lunch and, IMHO, everything that Dembski has done:
quote:
In short, No Free Lunch is completely worthless, except as a work of pseudoscientific rhetoric aimed at a mathematically unsophisticated audience which may mistake its mathematical mumbo jumbo for genuine erudition. However, since I have been urged to find something positive to write about it, I am pleased to be able to report that the book has an excellent index.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 50 by Saddleback, posted 02-09-2005 7:26 PM Saddleback has not replied

  
JonF
Member (Idle past 198 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 78 of 92 (184649)
02-11-2005 7:04 PM
Reply to: Message 74 by Saddleback
02-11-2005 6:30 PM


Re: theoretical vs actual
Suppose a DNA sequence which specified some trait were laid out as follows. IWILLCREATEAHAIRFOLLICLE. Then it mutates or replicates and mutates. ILLEICRSKDLFIELCKSHEIATEID Have you created any infromation?
Depends. How do you define information? There are several different ways.
Can evolutionists point to one example where a DNA mutation created new information?
Yup. Please tell us which definition of information you are using so we can select the most appropriate example.
Please point me to one of those "beneficial" mutations.
Have several.
http://www.nmsr.org/nylon.htm (and this is the one that Lee Spetner grants as increasing information by his definition).
Examples of Beneficial Mutations in Humans
http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/mutations.html
I expect much mirth when you respond.
Do you seriously believe that life sprang from non life? Is it probable in your mind? Was it clay templates and billions of years, hot vents on the bottom of the sea floor, panspermia.
1. Yes.
2. Yes.
3. My opinion is the clay, but it could well have been any of the ones you mentioned, any of the others that have been hypothesized, or something we haven't yet thought of. It's a relatively youthful field.
Please enjoy the aforemtioned "information". I am sure it contains the answer to your questions.
Well, it certainly demonstrates that you are obnoxiously snide when you are avoiding answering direct and relevant questions. "Done with a smile" doesn't make it any more honest or less repellant.
You have not replied to Message 53, especially:
quote:
I remembered. BTW, that he {Dembski} has never calculated the probability of a cell assembling, so I would appreciate it if you would post the source of your claim that he did.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 74 by Saddleback, posted 02-11-2005 6:30 PM Saddleback has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 84 by Wounded King, posted 02-13-2005 6:15 PM JonF has not replied

  
JonF
Member (Idle past 198 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 88 of 92 (185063)
02-14-2005 8:51 AM
Reply to: Message 87 by RAZD
02-14-2005 7:26 AM


Reads fine in Acrobat 7 here.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 87 by RAZD, posted 02-14-2005 7:26 AM RAZD has not replied

  
JonF
Member (Idle past 198 days)
Posts: 6174
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 91 of 92 (185330)
02-14-2005 9:22 PM
Reply to: Message 90 by RAZD
02-14-2005 8:42 PM


downloaded 7.
dustbined 5.
happy now.
How fast does it load? You may be happier if you try Adobe Reader SpeedUp.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 90 by RAZD, posted 02-14-2005 8:42 PM RAZD has replied

Replies to this message:
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