The UK Election!!!!

Your election may not generate the Pop Mainstream media hype over here that Paris Hilton does but there is interest and, for those that seek it out, there is coverage.No surprise at the 3-way debate. The LibDems have been right up there for some years and, thankfully, your Mr. Clegg is NOT a Ross Perrot type buffoon but a real experience pol (which may be the same thing come to think about it). I take from the question you vote for party and not the MP to represent you? I mean you vote for the MP candidate of your chosen party regardless of who he/she is, yes?Who are your MP candidates? Do you even know? Does it make any difference in your system? Is the Really Silly Party still around?Admittedly I have not kept up with your politicians like I do with US and Arizona Pols, but there is something about Nick Clegg that appeals to me outside the LibDem planks. An atheistic womanizing firebug and honest about it. Kind of refreshing.{abe} I haven't seen the polls. Is there a realistic possibility of there being a split parliament and a coalition government?Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Yes, we have them here too. We call our Loony party "Republicans."I looked up some of the polls. My analysis and prognostication:The LibDems will be taking more votes from Labour than from the Conservatives leaving the Cons as the plurality in Parliament (about 300 seats).Since neither Labour nor LibDem are politically disposed to form a coalition with the Cons these two will find a way to form the coalition leaving Brown as PM. Whatever is the second most influential portfolio in Her Majesty's Government will go to Clegg.Since Labour will have secured about 250+ seats to LibDem 50+ the vast majority of the portfolios will go Labour. You will have a de facto Labour government.The interesting part will be if a Labour government will yield to some of the stronger LibDem planks in order to preserve the coalition, though I would think there would be motivation on both sides to cooperate rather than dissolve.Still it could be contentious and you may be doing this again in about 2 years.Remember, this prognostication is brought to you be one who predicted that Hillary would broker the Democratic convention into a blistering party-rending endorsement of her nomination distastefully handing the election to McCain. Use caution and apply lightly.Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

No surprise that each party's ideological cousins in print have their man as the winner in the first debate. The spin doctors get the first say. Now that the dust has settled the reality consensus is that Mr. Clegg scored a major victory over his opponents.I still do not see the Torys or Labour shooting darts at the LibDems. Apparently they have no American media handlers on payroll. Maybe the Brits are still too politically cultured to go negative given this was the first such debate in their history.From the American experience, however, going negative can be very effective. People are people and pols are pols so here is a further prognostication.Expect to see some hard balls thrown in Clegg's direction this next debate from both the majors. Maybe some challenges to how he can cut taxes and the deficit at the same time, get him to gore some other spending areas that have a political constituency, get him into the details where the politics really plays. This could, as often happens, backfire if the challenger is not prepared to answer the same questions.If Mr. Clegg manages to even just hold his own in this next showing he will still be seen as the winner given his stellar performance in round 1. If that turns out to be the case then the Brits are in for a rude political awakening in round 3. The grenades will fly.

Latest polling data I've seen indicates LibDems have surpassed Labour and are closing on the Torys. It is all within the +-5 error bars, however.Tomorrow's festivities become very interesting indeed.If trends continue you may see the LibDems with the plurality thus driving a close coalition government instead of being just along for the ride.

How would you rate the probabilities of a Labour/Tory (Lory?) coalition?Just to keep the upstarts out?Maneuvering constantly for best advantage at an earliest possible "no confidence" vote?It might seem slim at first glance but more machiavellian things have happened.

Quite true.Could the LibDem spurt, however, coupled with good performances by Clegg in the remaining debates be enough to overtake a significant number of what would otherwise have been weak-to-moderately held Labor and Tory seats?

Please, Straggler, I have a tender heart!And I apologize if the vision I suggested made yours skip a few beats.So if Clegg can keep the LibDems this close come election day then they will be part of the coalition.It is too soon after the second debate to swamp through all the chaff yet but I get the impression all three held their own. You folks have got a real horse race going.

The polls are done, the debates are over, the campaigns are finished.It is time for you all to vote.It is time for the rest of us to polish up the last of our prognostications, set them in stone and wait for the final tally.Or,You could just use the below numbers and forgo the unnecessary expense of a real election.Final configuration for the House of Commons (major parties only):Conservative — 295
Labour — 220
Liberal Democrat - 115

Sure.

Congratulations to MORI/NOP. Their new exit polling techniques called the election accurately and early. No one believed them but in the end they were exceptionally accurate.What the hell happened? This is the first UK election I've tried to analyze and, frankly, the outcome doesn't make any sense. This is not the American way.I had a number of seats where the margins indicated LibDem slim victories go over to the other two and one go Green, by healthy margins. What a mess. Indeed, a lot more fun than the US election with all its surprises.So now what? Do the Tories go interest and supply with the LibDems or coalition?Seems that Labour is out of the picture regardless of the Con/LibDem negotiations. It seems, from what is being said, that Labour will not be able to govern in a minority parliament with so many parties in the mix. Not for long, anyway. In other parliaments around the world minority government appears to be the norm and quite successful. The UK history is not so inclined.Either there is an accommodation between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats or there will be another election, which, all indications seem to point, may be best for the Conservatives.You Brits sure know how to put on a show. Thank you.[abe] I'm impressed with the opening statements of all three party leaders. Especially Mr. Cameron. We're yet to see how dedicated he really is to the "national interest" but the first noises sounded good. Edited by AZPaul3, : afterthought

And if a coalition of parties represents more of the electorate, is this a bad thing?[abe] Sorry to step on your response, Straggler.Edited by AZPaul3, : Straggler beat me to it.

Now I am confused. Brown stepped down as PM. He still heads the party until a new leader is chosen at the party meeting in September.So if Labour and LibDems reach an agreement (with other parties) to form a government this next week, who ends up as PM? Will Brown be reinstated as PM until the Labour party elects a new leader?

If you do not receive the required number of Her Majesty's Subjects to respond I offer the following:1. Hold a Constitutional Convention and plebiscite adopting a formal Supreme Constitution of the land.2. Dissolve the monarchy.3. Join the Euro.

So is that what direct democracy is? A couple of self-appointed liberals who think they know what's best decide the issues to bring forward?What happened to discussion? Who voted on having these two issues come forward from the list?Did I miss the official vote? Was it ever announced that we would vote on which two issues to bring out from the list? Was there even any intention of having us, the public, vote on which issues to bring forward?What rules for voting have been established? Since there are two issues to bring out do we each get 2 votes? If none achieve a majority then what?Do the two of you just take it upon yourselves to decide?What kind of direct democracy are we practicing here? The directed dictated kind?I strongly object!New Issues:How do we decide which issues to bring from the list?
What voting method is to be used?

Those that propose an issue should provide the full wording of said proposal for the public to consider. Just vote reform is not enough information to let the public know what actually is being proposed and, if taken up from the list, on what it is they are voting. To try to draft a proposal word for word by committee is ridiculous when dealing with humans, as we all know.If we are to form this democracy we need to start somewhere with a list of rules, a Constitution if you will.I propose that a 3 day discussion period be implemented on this document.I propose that each member voice their opinion.I propose that Straggler and Legend determine if there appears, in their sole opinions, any interest as evidenced by this discussion period in holding a vote on this document as it presently stands.If in their opinion there is interest, note I did not say acceptance, I propose that Straggler, operating as Thread Leader Pro Tempor, submit this document to public vote and that a majority vote will consecrate this document and bring its provisions into full force.I propose the following be put to our small constituency for vote:-----------------------------------------------1. AdministrationThe public will select the Thread Leader from the nominations received.Nominations can be made by any member providing no member may nominate themselves.Nominations for Thread Leader (TL) will be open for a period of three days.Each nomination must receive a second from another member before the nomination is entered onto the election list for TL. No member may second their own nomination.On the close of the three-day nomination period the list of seconded nominees will be published by the TL Pro Tempor in the thread and a three day voting period will commence.Each member is entitled to a single vote for TL. The nominee with the majority of votes will assume the duties and responsibilities of TL. A majority will be counted as 50% +1 of all members regardless of the number of total votes cast.If no nominee receives a clear majority then the two receiving the most votes will be put to a runoff vote. If there is a tie for second most votes or a three-way tie for most votes then all three nominees will participate in the runoff election.2. Forming The Issues ListThe TL will announce a Call for Issues. The Call for Issues will be open for not less than 3 days nor more than 5 days at the discretion of the TL. Any member may submit an issue or any number of issues to be included in the Issues List.The Issue submitted should be detailed and specific in what is being proposed and in how the proposal is to be implemented. Lacking detail may cause the voting public to avoid taking the issue forward.Members may alter the written specifics of their Issue Proposal at any time until the Call for Issues has ended.3. Bringing an Issue ForwardWhen the Call for Issues has ended the TL will publish the official Issues List, without detail, and will commence a 3 day voting period to determine which 2 issues from the official Issues List will be submitted for public vote.Each member will have 2 votes. Members may cast their votes as they please casting one vote for 2 separate issues or casting both votes for 1 issue. No fractional voting will be accepted.At the close of the voting period the TL will publish the official vote totals. The 2 issues receiving the most votes will be Called Forward from the Issues List for public discussion and vote.If there is a multiple tie for most votes or second most votes then those issues sharing these votes will be submitted for a runoff vote.4. Voting On the IssueThe TL will announce and list, without detail, the 2 Public Issues, as a result of Section 3, to be submitted for Public Vote. To allow time for discussion the Public Vote on the Issues will commence not less than 3 days and not more than 5 days, at the discretion of the TL, from the time of announcement of the 2 Public Issues.Each Public Issue will be submitted for Public Vote simultaneously but separately.Each member has a single vote on whether to accept or to reject the detailed written Issue Proposal. This applies to each Public Issue separately.Any Public Issue receiving a majority vote of acceptance will be implemented. A majority will be counted as 50% +1 of all members regardless of the number of total votes cast on an Issue.5. ArbitrationThe TL will appoint an Arbitrator to serve at the pleasure of the TL.No public vote will be called on this appointment.The TL may, at his discretion, replace the Arbitrator at any time.Any member may bring a complaint or dispute on the above sections to arbitration by detailing the specifics of the alleged violation of the sections to the Arbitrator.The Arbitrator will have sole and final authority to interpret the meaning and intent of all sections of this document and may dismiss the complaint or order a remedy to resolve the violation.6. AmendmentAll Amendments to this document must be submitted in the Call for Issues and must meet all requirements of Sections 2, 3 and 4 except that, if Called Forward, a super majority is required for acceptance. The super majority will be counted as 75% of all members regardless of the number of votes cast on the Issue.7. ImplementationMember Straggler will serve as Thread Leader Pro Tempor for the purposes of initiating the responsibilities of this document and to implement the requirements of Sections 1 and 5.Edited by AZPaul3, : detail alteredEdited by AZPaul3, : Alteration 2Edited by AZPaul3, : alteration 3