Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top

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alright, that's the 90, the 11, the 22, and the 10 in one direction ruled out. all those go across the lake. the 10 in the OTHER direction goes near the lake, and the 55 that branches off of it crosses a pretty big inlet/canal into the lake.

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considering that the storm surge was at least 15 feet (it did go over the levees)

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According to a previously cited quote from WikiPedia, the levees were breached at 11 AM on Monday morning. Are you trying to say that the evacuation would have been postponed that late?

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that rules out nearly every road out of nola, all except the 66, after a certain point.

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The key words are after a certain point.You continue to needlessly insist that the evacuation buses would not have left New Orleans until the storm was already on top of the city. That's a needless assumption that you still have not justified.I have no need to rethink the point when you insist on resorting to logical fallacies (begging the question).

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C'mon. I've driven to New Orleans myself in about 6 hours.

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How much debris was in the road, what was the current storm surge level, and how sound were the bridges?How many thousands of pounds of supply did you bring? How many hundreds of soldiers did you need to get into your convoy? And how long did it take the governor to give you orders?I bet your vacations are more interesting than mine.

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You're telling me that getting thousands of troops who already have their own transportation from three or four states away across an interstate highway build for that express purpose takes longer than, say, three times what it would take me to drive there myself in normal conditions? If you can't get a National Guardsman from here to there in under 18 hours then either we've suffered a nuclear attack by Soviet Russia or someone dropped the ball.

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Sorry, but three to five days is the standard response time, and has been for years.

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you specified the time of city shut-down: 9pm sunday.

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Yes, I did.I did not specify the time at which the evacuation buses would have left the city. You are assuming that they left immediately before the roads were closed. Why, I do not know.

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uh, no. you were arguing that they could have done it AFTER everyone else was off the highway, under huge storm surge and high winds. you said they could have done after 9pm, when the roads were closed.

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The fact that there was nobody still on the road at that time proves that everybody was able to get out. You need to show that if we added 500 buses, everybody would not be able to get out.You keep insisting over and over again to the point of absurdity that no, they couldn't all get out, but you haven't done anything to substantiate.

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these are the people in trouble now, that the right is blaming nagin and blanco for not evacuating.

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And blaming Bush will make it better for the victims?Come on, you know you're making political hay. This has nothing to do with the victims, does it?This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 11:08 PM

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maybe they could have done it before then. but that's just speculation on your part. evacuating a city is not an easy task

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No, when Blanco and Nagin are thinking about it's not an easy task.When FEMA does it suddenly they are grossly incompetent for taking longer than a day.Be consistent.

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i think you need to stick to a point, and stop blaming others for speculating when they're calling you on your own ridiculous speculation.

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My assertion isn't "ridiculous": load people on buses and send them out of the city.You haven't shown why it can't be done, instead you have this idea, obviously pulled from thin air, that it would clog the interstates and they couldn't make it out.I'm waiting on you to show that that's the case.

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so the national guard can't do it in 18 hours AFTER the hurricane, but 500 buses can DURING?

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No, but 500 buses can do it before.Do you not see how absurd Crashfrog is in saying that just because he can drive to New Orleans in six hours under normal conditions that National Guard should do the same after the largest national disaster in American history?Are you getting enough oxygen over there?

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oh, speculation, speculations. why are you so forgiving and understanding of difficulties and shortcomings HERE, but can't understand why outrunning a hurricane in 20 foot storm surge with 500 buses is harder than it sounds?

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The buses could have left before the hurricane and it wouldn't have been a problem.Second of all, when a hurricane is coming at you at 15-30 MPH, outrunning it is feasible. If I were in New Orleans, and had the proper permit, I would have volunteered to drive one of the buses. There is no reasonable doubt that those buses could not have gotten out of New Orleans like the the other hundreds of thousands that drove themselves out. It is a non-issue. And you have utterly failed to substantiate your opposition to it.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 11:20 PM

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ght, now try that in a hurricane, on elevated bridges ACROSS lakes, with 15-20 feet of waves.

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And why do the buses have to wait until during the hurricane to leave?

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source?

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Look, there is little thing called 'burden of proof'.Normally the person making an affirmative statement is required to support that statement.You have said over and over again that evacuation buses would cause there to still be traffic when the storm hit.I'm still waiting on you to support that assumption.

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those buses are needed NOW, not during the storm, and certainly more than they were before. a brighter plan, while we're speculating, would have been to evacuate the buses to higher ground within the city. or taken everyone within the city they could with every single bus they could, and then come back after the storm.

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Well, that's a good idea. I bet you have others, too. Why don't you elaborate on it further rather than wasting my time with strawmen. Seriously, I am interested in what better solutions there might have been--including those that don't involve driving people out of the city. And it could get this discussion back on track That could be more interest than having to remind you every single time that you are building strawmen and begging the question. I don't think I'm ever going to hear a justification for that.

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*cough* then so can the national guard.

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If you called them up 24-48 hours before the major catastrophe. What was Katrina's strength 48 hours before landfall?Second of all, you have forgotten that prepositioning assets in the disaster area before the disaster endangers those assets. I don't see how sending in the guard beforehand would be more ethical than forcing police and paramedics to go into the mandatory evacuation zone at the height of the storm.Despite that, I distinctly remember the Guard being in New Orleans, seeing as how they were the ones running the Superdome operation, at least the weapons checks.

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right. now imagine the same with traffic, and lots of wind and water. i'm sorry, you really can't have it both ways here gene. pick one and go with it. either the buses could get out, or the national guard couldn't get in.

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I think it's obvious that the Guard could've gotten in prior to the storm, were it possible to do so on such short notice *and* considered a wise and ethical use of resources.

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also. don't they have HELLICOPTERS?

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Yeah. Military helicopters were rescuing people Tuesday afternoon. In fact, by now they have rescued 30,000 people. But the presence of helicopters (and more to the point, an airport out of which you can fly C-130s) doesn't help you mobilize any faster, it just reduces travel time.

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easy to say sitting here, isn't it?

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Sure it is, since there would have been no danger.

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but it's alot easier to say in retrospect.

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I have to agree.

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If you called them up 24-48 hours before the major catastrophe. What was Katrina's strength 48 hours before landfall?

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To answer my own question, it was a Category 3 aimed at somewhere between about Morgan City and the Pearl River. Where are you going to send those troops, and how many? What if it pulls an Ivan?Hurricane KATRINA?This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 11:49 PM

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your affirmitive statement was that 500 buses could safely evacuate 20,000 people.

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Right. And I did the math based on the number of buses making an assumption about seating capacity.You said that it wouldn't work because the roads would be clogged.That was an affirmative assumption you have not supported.

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you even mentioned that they could have done as late as 9pm sunday, which i told you was ridiculous.

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Except it's not ridiculous because you can easily outdrive a hurricane and that far out road conditions are tenable. Further, the fact that there were no cars on the road is evidence that everybody had had plenty of time to get out. That means that if the buses had left earlier, there is no reason to think that they would somehow "clog the roads" like you insist they would, again, without justification.By the way, saying some is "ridiculous" over and over again does not support an argument.You're boring me.

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gov. blanco declared a state of emergency on august 26th. that's more than 24-48 hrs.

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But she did not ask for Federal troops until that Wednesday. As was already established, standard procedure is for the governor to ask the president to dispatch troops.By the way, this is 11 PM Aug 26 advisory for Hurricane Katrina

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ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

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...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

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A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

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FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

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AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 115
MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

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KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

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HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES.

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ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

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STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF CAPE SABLE... AND IN FLORIDA BAY. STORM SURGE
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

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KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

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ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

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REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N... 83.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

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AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

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FORECASTER AVILA

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$$
NNNN

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So it's going to be an "intense" hurricane (4 or higher) and it's forecast to hit Louisiana but that's days away. Last year there was a similar scare for New Orleans with Ivan and nothing came of it. Lili did the same thing before that. Georges did it.So, are you going to mobilize tens of thousands of national guardsmen every time a hurricane enters the gulf? And how are you going to decide where to send the Guard three days before landfall?This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 12:13 AM

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ok, i agree to that point.

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In that case, I think we are "mostly" in agreement, since that what most of this has been about.

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if there's a NEXT TIME (and i hope there's not) maybe they'll do something different. but you can't really fault them for executing the official plan flawlessly, and not foreseeing the potential faults in the official plan, like the reliance on the federal government for speedy assistance.

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That's fair, but I think it applies to local, State, and Federal agencies.

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but you wanna know my serious opinion? fema botched andrew. feam botched frances, too. it's a pretty good history here.

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Right.I may be on the other side of the political spectrum but I agree that there are some problems here. There needs a bipartisan investigation of this for one. I don't even like the look of the President being in complete control of whatever inquiry there is going to be.

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again, source please?

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I don't have one that will suffice, I'm simply remembering the news coverage (FOX, CNN, and State public radio, which was going into disaster mode). I believe that was coverage from CNN, but I realize it isn't sufficient. Apologies then for using it.

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i think you answer your own question:

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Yeah, that about does it.

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fema did not follow the official plan, and dhs fumbled the bit that would have allowed fema to act. apparently, chertoff thought he had to specifically declare nola to be an "incident of national significance" which he waited several days to do -- not allowing fema to even come into play.

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Well, for that much there needs a be culling of FEMA leadership.

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Gene
are you saying that this is all that Blanco asked for in her letter to Bush.

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Well, I don't see the point of arguing what the letter says when the letter is right here:404

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Pursuant to 44 CFR 206.35, I have determined that this incident is of such severity and magnitude that effective response is beyond the capabilities of the State and affected local governments, and that supplementary Federal assistance is necessary to save lives, protect property, public health, and safety, or to lessen or avert the threat of a disaster. I am specifically requesting emergency protective measures, direct Federal Assistance, Individual and Household Program (IHP) assistance, Special Needs Program assistance, and debris removal.

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Right, she is asking for "protective measures" and "direct Federal assistance".Next paragraph:

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Preliminary estimates of the types and amount of emergency assistance needed under the Stafford Act, and emergency assistance from certain Federal agencies under other statutory authorities are tabulated in Enclosure A.

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Enclosure A:

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Estimated requirements for other Federal agency programs:
” Department of Social Services (DSS): Opening (3) Special Need Shelters (SNS) and establishing (3) on Standby. Costs estimated at $500,000 per week for each in operation.
” Department of Health and Hospitals (DHH): Opening (3) Shelters and establishing (3) on Standby. Costs estimated at $500,000 per week for each in operation.
” Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (OHSEP): Providing generators and support staff for SNS and Public Shelters. Costs estimated to range from $250,000-$500,000 to support (6) Shelter generator operations.
” Louisiana State Police (LSP): Costs to support evacuations - $300,000 for a non-direct landfall.
” Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries (WLF): Costs to support evacuations - $200,000 for a non-direct landfall.
” Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD): Costs to support evacuations - $2,000,000 for a non-direct landfall.

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Totals: $ 9,000,000

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Estimated Requirements for assistance under the Stafford Act:

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Coordination: $0
Technical and advisory assistance: $0
Debris removal: $0
Emergency protective measures: $ 9,000,000
Individuals and Households Program (IHP): $0
Distribution of emergency supplies: $0
Other (specify): $0

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Totals: $ 9,000,000
Grand Total: $ 9,000,000

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Now, to be fair, Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane when she wrote this, and the lanfall location was not known with any certainty.