|
Register | Sign In |
|
QuickSearch
EvC Forum active members: 65 (9164 total) |
| |
ChatGPT | |
Total: 916,914 Year: 4,171/9,624 Month: 1,042/974 Week: 1/368 Day: 1/11 Hour: 0/0 |
Thread ▼ Details |
Member (Idle past 1435 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
|
Thread Info
|
|
|
Author | Topic: Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top | |||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
What are you talking about? you specified the time of city shut-down: 9pm sunday.
I never said 500 buses would evacuate the entire city, especially not forcibly. I do insist that it would be "safe", considering that everybody else got out just fine. uh, no. you were arguing that they could have done it AFTER everyone else was off the highway, under huge storm surge and high winds. you said they could have done after 9pm, when the roads were closed.
By the way, I've never heard of "forcible" evacuations prior to this storm. Mandatory evacuations mean that emergency services will not come to your assistance during the storm because of danger to first responders. But that doesn't mean they'll arrest you and throw you in the back of a truck. i'm not blaming the victims here -- but most people prefer to ride out hurricanes in their own homes, or with friends and loved ones in a safer (familiar) place. these are the people in trouble now, that the right is blaming nagin and blanco for not evacuating.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
According to a previously cited quote from WikiPedia, the levees were breached at 11 AM on Monday morning. Are you trying to say that the evacuation would have been postponed that late? uh, no. i'm talking about the storm surge that was OVER THE TOP of the levees well before that.
The key words are after a certain point. You continue to needlessly insist that the evacuation buses would not have left New Orleans until the storm was already on top of the city. That's a needless assumption that you still have not justified. you said they could have left after 9pm sunday. not me. that's the certain point here. your point is downright ludicrous. maybe they could have done it before then. but that's just speculation on your part. evacuating a city is not an easy task.
I have no need to rethink the point when you insist on resorting to logical fallacies (begging the question). i think you need to stick to a point, and stop blaming others for speculating when they're calling you on your own ridiculous speculation.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
How much debris was in the road, what was the current storm surge level, and how sound were the bridges? so the national guard can't do it in 18 hours AFTER the hurricane, but 500 buses can DURING?
How many thousands of pounds of supply did you bring? How many hundreds of soldiers did you need to get into your convoy? And how long did it take the governor to give you orders? oh, speculation, speculations. why are you so forgiving and understanding of difficulties and shortcomings HERE, but can't understand why outrunning a hurricane in 20 foot storm surge with 500 buses is harder than it sounds?
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
Remember that bridge I mentioned that was out? A truck driver, sadly enough, was killed on it during the storm. But it proves that until he decided to cross a bridge that he should have avoided, his high-profile vehicle was able to follow roads that generally trended only a mile or so from the ocean. right, now try that in a hurricane, on elevated bridges ACROSS lakes, with 15-20 feet of waves.
And I never said that it would be "during a hurricane". The traffic out of the city was gone before tropical-storm force winds came up. source? and i consider it to be a "hurricane" if there are sustained 74mph winds outside, even if the eye is hours from landfall. i'm sorry if the standard definition is misleading.
Your own source said that when the first signs of flooding from Ponchartrain occured, the streets were empty except for police. streets ≠ highways.
And again, even the police usually take shelter before the roads really become untenable. if i were a police officer, that'd be about the time i'd looked for shelter. but that's just speculation, isn't it?
I said that 3,000+ buses could evacuate the city with room to spare the accepted figure, btw, is 2,000. unfortunately, nola does not have 2,000 buses.
500 buses would only get out 20,000 people, but that's still a lot. About the same number that were in the Superdome when the storm hit, and I've already posted the fact that the Superdome was probably a lousy place to be from a structural standpoint. so, 500 buses could have evacuated the city safely, then? it's not a strawman if it's actually point. and yes, they probably could have -- if it was done significantly before the storm. it would have to have been organized in advance, and it was not. what WAS organized in advance was evacuation to the superdome. and they only moved about 9,000 people if i recall. so they would not have been able to round up that 20,000 figure. the superdome had about 26-28,000 at its peak occupancy, i think. (check it if you'd like) but there was definitally an increase AFTER the storm. those buses are needed NOW, not during the storm, and certainly more than they were before. a brighter plan, while we're speculating, would have been to evacuate the buses to higher ground within the city. or taken everyone within the city they could with every single bus they could, and then come back after the storm. however, i think part of the problem was the unpredictability of the levee breaches. not that they would, but which ones. those buses currently underwater would certainly be in operation if they could have been. if not from city officials, then from people who know how to hotwire.
and I've already posted the fact that the Superdome was probably a lousy place to be from a structural standpoint. misinformation goes alogn way. everyone thought it would be safe, but it was not. it's easy to say in retrospect that of course the titanic would hit an iceberg and it would sink, but before that actually happened it was considered the safest ship ever made. the superdome was considered safe by the state and local government before the storm. if that's a goof up on their part, so be it.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
No, but 500 buses can do it before. *cough* then so can the national guard.
Do you not see how absurd Crashfrog is in saying that just because he can drive to New Orleans in six hours under normal conditions that National Guard should do the same after the largest national disaster in American history? right. now imagine the same with traffic, and lots of wind and water. i'm sorry, you really can't have it both ways here gene. pick one and go with it. either the buses could get out, or the national guard couldn't get in. also. don't they have HELLICOPTERS?
Second of all, when a hurricane is coming at you at 15-30 MPH, outrunning it is feasible. sure. when traffic is running faster 15-30 mph. you haven't shown that the highways were clear by the time windforce got as high as a hurricane.
If I were in New Orleans, and had the proper permit, I would have volunteered to drive one of the buses. sure, i would have too. so would a lot of people. easy to say sitting here, isn't it?
There is no reasonable doubt that those buses could not have gotten out of New Orleans like the the other hundreds of thousands that drove themselves out. It is a non-issue. And you have utterly failed to substantiate your opposition to it. yes, but they would have had to have been stolen to do that. they were being used at the time to ferry people to the superdome. you're arguing that the plan should have been changed. yes, it probably should have. that's fine, i acknowledge that. but it's alot easier to say in retrospect.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
And why do the buses have to wait until during the hurricane to leave? your scenario. not mine.
Look, there is little thing called 'burden of proof'. Normally the person making an affirmative statement is required to support that statement your affirmitive statement was that 500 buses could safely evacuate 20,000 people. you even mentioned that they could have done as late as 9pm sunday, which i told you was ridiculous.
You have said over and over again that evacuation buses would cause there to still be traffic when the storm hit. you have said over and over that there was no traffic on the highways by the time it would have been unsafe to drive on them. i'm asking for a source saying when the highways were clear -- and you have failed to substantiate it.
Well, that's a good idea. I bet you have others, too. i should be the head of fema or something.
Seriously, I am interested in what better solutions there might have been--including those that don't involve driving people out of the city. and they did some of that, didn't they? you're examining this all in retrospect, and then picking on state and local officials for not foreseeing what we know now. the plan was to use the buses to ferry people to higher ground in the city, to shelters. that's what they did. it was a good idea. but it doesn't work without timely federal assistance.
And it could get this discussion back on track That could be more interest than having to remind you every single time that you are building strawmen and begging the question. I don't think I'm ever going to hear a justification for that. or proof that i'm building strawmen.
quote: now, i read that as you saying that there was a window of opportunity. that's why asked: "you're saying you want people to be out driving when the roads are closed due to an impending disaster?" if this was NOT your case, you should have said so. instead, you wrote:
quote: still seeming to be saying that the buses could have left after the traffic cleared and STILL made it. that point is, of course, ridiculous. that's the one i'm arguing. if it's a strawman, it's because you did not clarify when i asked you to.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
If you called them up 24-48 hours before the major catastrophe. What was Katrina's strength 48 hours before landfall? gov. blanco declared a state of emergency on august 26th. that's more than 24-48 hrs.
Second of all, you have forgotten that prepositioning assets in the disaster area before the disaster endangers those assets. I don't see how sending in the guard beforehand would be more ethical than forcing police and paramedics to go into the mandatory evacuation zone at the height of the storm. see? here is me preventing a strawman by clarifying a misunderstanding. "that's not what i meant." it's pretty easy. i'm not saying send in the guard before. i'm saying get them ready to be sent in immediately afterwards. collect them in a safe area otuside the cone of improbability. it's not a long trip from, say, jacksonville or tally to nola. less than a day, including hitting the rush hour in mobile (comparable to debris clearing on an otherwise empty road, i think).
I think it's obvious that the Guard could've gotten in prior to the storm, were it possible to do so on such short notice *and* considered a wise and ethical use of resources. oh, they certainly could have. for a long time, the incoming roads were empty. but i'm saying that if they can't get in just after, 500 buses couldn't get out just before. and 500 buses could have gotten out just before, couldn't they? so why can't the nation guard get in? they're not scared bus drivers with passengers who are freaking out. they don't have to contend with water and wind. they have tanks and helicopters amd big convoys. we have the most impressive military in the world -- which i think qualifies them for an efficient roadtrip, moreso than 500 busdrivers with 20,000 passengers. basically, i'm only saying that there's no excuse you can make for them, if you're arguing that these lowly city personal could have done better.
quote: I have to agree. that's all i'm asking for. just a little understanding of how shit goes wrong in extenuating circumstances.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
That means that if the buses had left earlier, there is no reason to think that they would somehow "clog the roads" like you insist they would, again, without justification. ok, i agree to that point. but it's still a retrospective position. the plan at the time was to seek the closest high ground they could find. and the superdome was the biggest shelter. that's been the plan for years. if there's a NEXT TIME (and i hope there's not) maybe they'll do something different. but you can't really fault them for executing the official plan flawlessly, and not foreseeing the potential faults in the official plan, like the reliance on the federal government for speedy assistance.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
missed this one.
Right. And it took five days after Andrew, but FEMA was moving into place within three days after the storm. monday, tuesday, wednessday, thursday -- that's four. but you wanna know my serious opinion? fema botched andrew. feam botched frances, too. it's a pretty good history here.
Reality: the Federal government moves like molasses. sadly, you are absolutely right. the federal gov't DOES move like molasses. in winter. (uphill) but that's the problem we're talking about here, isn't it? how slow the federal gov't is. especially after four years of talking about preparedness for disaster and threats to our infrastructure. it shaved all of a DAY off the time, didn't it?
quote: Yeah, to clean up Nagin's mess. And it took a while to do that because he left such a mess. when the governor write to the president and say that the situation excedes the capabilities of state and local government, and asks the president to intervene by declaring a state of emergency -- and the presidnet DOES declare a state of emergency -- it is not the MAYOR'S fault for what happens. it is the president's. period. from that point, it is the president's responsibility to coordinate all federal, state, and local agencies involved in handling the disaster. that means fema, the dhs, the dod, the national guard (even if it is non-nationalized), etc. these agencies are designed to take over when the state and local government fails. if damage happens because THOSE agencies fail to act, it is not the local government's fault for not being to handle the situation they wrote to the feds for help about in the first place.
Now, are you trying to tell me that it would be safer in the Superdome than to try to evacuate? no, i'm trying to say that that was the plan for the people who could no evacuate on their own. the people who could evacuate probably did. for the people that could not evacuate on their own, the plan was to try to help as MANY as possible by ferryign them to the stadium. in RETROSPECT just taking them out of the city would have been better.
And finally, I note that there was not still traffic on the exit routes when the hurricane struck. again, source please?
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
quote:But she did not ask for Federal troops until that Wednesday. As was already established, standard procedure is for the governor to ask the president to dispatch troops. i think you answer your own question:
So, are you going to mobilize tens of thousands of national guardsmen every time a hurricane enters the gulf? And how are you going to decide where to send the Guard three days before landfall? the national guard, in my opinion, had an appropriate response time. they were on the ground pretty fast. that might be more than crash is saying, but that's what i think. fema, and the dhs did not. the fact that i think is most damning is that WALMART had a better response time than our government. and i'm fairly certain walmart is run by the devil himself. This message has been edited by arachnophilia, 09-15-2005 12:23 AM
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
That's fair, but I think it applies to local, State, and Federal agencies. uh, no. it doesn't. fema did not follow the official plan, and dhs fumbled the bit that would have allowed fema to act. apparently, chertoff thought he had to specifically declare nola to be an "incident of national significance" which he waited several days to do -- not allowing fema to even come into play. he failed to realize however that although not all "incidents of national significance" are national disasters, all national disasters are automatically incidents. in other words, chertoff got in the way of fema acting, when they REALLY had authority to act from the 27th or so. basically, that's the reason for the slow response -- -- chertoff followed the plan, but not in a timely manner, and in a short-sighted kind of way. the plan itself was not the flaw here.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
Right. I may be on the other side of the political spectrum but I agree that there are some problems here. There needs a bipartisan investigation of this for one. amen.
I don't even like the look of the President being in complete control of whatever inquiry there is going to be. truthfully, i don't like the look of the president being in complete control of ANYTHING. no matter who the president is, too. this is not an anti-bush thing. frankly, the ability of the president to completely control things locally in the event of a disaster scares me, but i regocnize that swift order is needed in certain circumstances. the problem here is that swift order did not come.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
Well, for that much there needs a be culling of FEMA leadership. yes. at least brown is gone. imho, i think he should have actually been fired, at the very least. so should a few other from their ranks, especially those with little to no qualifications. also, i think chertoff from dhs needs to go, and we need to seriously investigate them too.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
here's some more info i've been finding:
quote: and for all those whining about blanco not asking for help, even though she did:
quote: apparently she didn't need to, like i said. as i pointed out before, chertoff didn't declare an incident of national significance until the 30th, even though the presidential declaration of disaster had already happened on the 27th, prior to the hurricane, totally eliminating the need for chertoff's memo. there appear to be some pretty nasty kinks in the chain of command here, and chertoff is one of them. |
|||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1374 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
quote: No, when Blanco and Nagin are thinking about it's not an easy task. When FEMA does it suddenly they are grossly incompetent for taking longer than a day. Be consistent. well the problem is that the structure is not consistent. when the mayor is in trouble, he turns it over to the governor. when the gov. is in trouble, she calls the feds. it is not the sole job of nagin to prepare for disaster, nor is it his duty to only work on ways to prevent disaster and clean them up afterwards. neither is it blanco's job. but it IS fema's job. what i'm asking for is that they do their job, and do it effectively. it is understandable that a mayor and a governor didn't succeed -- but fema is the last resort they turn to. it is not a double standard to expect fema and the dhs to do their jobs. but it is unreasonable to expect a mayor and a governor to do fema's job. see the difference?
My assertion isn't "ridiculous": load people on buses and send them out of the city. yes, and it probably should have been done. in retrospect. fema should probably organize that type of thing, actually.
|
|
|
Do Nothing Button
Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved
Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024