Ringo asks:
I believe the bridge is there but I acknowledge that my belief is likely wrong, so I don't try to cross it until I actually see it. How is that different from not believing the bridge is there until I see it?
If you start by NOT believing the bridge is there, you will probably plan a different route, perhaps considerably longer. Then you find out from a friend that the bridge was there all the time and think to yourself, "Oh darn it!"
In the other case, having a fairly good expectation of the bridge being there and saving you the longer route, you go to the bridge and find out that a very unlikely (in your mind) event has occurred and the bridge is gone. And you think to yourself, "Oh darn it!".
It's a risk analysis you do in a mere smidgeon of time usually without even being aware of it.
- xongsmith, 5.7d