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Author Topic:   Austerity measures have they ever saved an economy?
Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 21 of 168 (648818)
01-18-2012 5:49 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by DC85
01-16-2012 9:02 PM


Examples
Thread Title Asks writes:
Austerity measures have they ever saved an economy?
I think the two examples usually cited are Canada and Sweden in the mid 1990s.
Canada engaged in quite stringent austerity measures to reduce it's budget deficit but it had booming exports to strongly assist these measures.
Sweden, as far as I understand, did something similar but simultaneously underwent a large devaluation which accounted for a lot of it's debt clearance.
AbE - With Wiki on strike it is much harder to look these things up.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 35 of 168 (648880)
01-19-2012 7:08 AM
Reply to: Message 32 by RobS
01-19-2012 5:48 AM


Good Capitalism Bad Capitalism
RobS writes:
Everyone seems to think capitalism is the enemy...
I would argue that there are good forms of capitalism and bad forms of capitalism. It's about how we share risk and reward. It's about a mixed economy.
At the moment we seem to have a situation where the reward reaped by the few is disproportionate to the risk taken by them. In fact we seem to have socialised risk/loss for the many and privatised reward/profit for the few.
This is not sustainable. But it is what your preferred economic model has led to. So please don't tell us how "realistic" you are being.

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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 39 of 168 (648890)
01-19-2012 8:42 AM
Reply to: Message 38 by RobS
01-19-2012 8:24 AM


Re: No Income No Spend
What you little analysis completely fails to consider is the role of investment in national infrastructure that is required to create the environment in which the entrepreneurial innovation that capitalism depends on can best take place.
If a government borrows to invest in education, health, transport, telecommunications, scientific research, regulatory institutions etc. etc. and this investment pays dividends by making the nation more productive in the future - Then far from saddling future generations with unjustifiable debt we instead leave them with a legacy of infrastructure which facilitates their own innovations and amplifies their ability to be productive.
There is indisputably a balance to be struck. But your government = bad and private = good analysis is simplistic in the extreme. Lassiez faire capitalism has demonstrated it's inability to achieve this balance. In fact the proponents of lassiez faire are usually so ideologically driven that they aren't even able to even recognise the productive value of public investment in a balanced economy.
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

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 Message 38 by RobS, posted 01-19-2012 8:24 AM RobS has replied

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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 85 of 168 (649119)
01-20-2012 4:26 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by RobS
01-19-2012 12:00 PM


Capitalism Does Not Equal Lassiez Faire
RobS writes:
On a side note, if in america you keep saying 'In god we trust', then god needs to be taxed more than everyone else.
Firstly - I am not American. Secondly - I am about as likely to say In God we trust with any seriousness as I am to say Please set my testicles on fire. Thirdly — Given your stated blind faith in lassiez faire economics the phrase In market forces I trust would seem more appropriate to you.
RobS on China writes:
read post properly...both are now cow-towing to their capitalist opponents by introducing capitalism into their NON Laissez-faire economies...and guess what?, ever since they made this move their economies are beginning to thrive.
China has adopted aspects of a free-market economy whilst retaining stringent state control of banking and other core industries. To cite any success China might have as justification of Lassiez Faire economics is ridiculous. You are conflating arguments for some form of capitalism with arguments for your ideologically driven preferred version of it.
RobS writes:
While I'd have to agree with you that infrastructure does make the process workable it is with the caveat mentioned before and that is that true austrian models have never existed, therefore we've had an opportunity to demonstrate that infrastructure building is not only possible in austrian terms but highly cost effective and innovative.
I find your faith unconvincing. But to recap - You think that unfettered lassiez faire economics is A) Theoretically sound B) Perfectly in tune with human instincts but C) Has never been tried.
Can I ask why you think it is that this obviously superior econmc model has never been implemented?
RobS writes:
If a proprietary interest is involved any hold up, wastage or negligence gets punished immediately.
Having worked reasonably extensively in both the public and private sector I can state with confidence that private firms, even successful ones, are not always more efficient than public bodies.
RobS writes:
Inefficiency is not an indictment that I level lightly, I don't take pleasure in pummelling the government, but as a businessman I can guarantee that the best way to improve anyones' productivity is to make it contingent on proprietary reward (interest). If you offer the right incentives then people will do their very best, otherwise they will always seek the path of least resistance.
RobS writes:
As mentioned before limited Gov has utility as long as it is 'limited' to the bare essentials, including national defence, education, law & order (incl. protection of property) & limited monetary control.
On a point of consistency — If you think that lassiez faire free markets are invariably the best route to efficiency and quality why do you not also apply the same thinking to education, defence et al?
RobS writes:
Capitalism sprung out of feudalism as a reaction to not being allowed the chance to thrive, it is the natural bedmate of the enlightenment values, Thomas Paine was it's best advocate, but sadly his dream has not yet come to fruition.
Enlightenment values are not those of the faith based lassiez faire advocate. Enlightenment values include recognition of the public sphere and it’s role in successful economies and societies. The founders of capitalism were aware of the natural tendencies of unfettered capitalism to result in monopolies and unhealthy concentrations of capital if left unchecked and unregulated. On Thomas Paine (from Wiki):
quote:
Paine issued his Rights of Man, Part the Second, Combining Principle and Practice in February 1792. It detailed a representative government with enumerated social programs to remedy the numbing poverty of commoners through progressive tax measures.
Most importantly the enlightenment valued evidence based analysis and conclusions. On what evidence do you base your lassiez faire advocacy?
RobS writes:
Everywhere you find capitalism you find freedom, and to the extent you find capitalism you find the same degree of freedom.
Yet unfettered freemarket capitalism of the lassiez faire kind fails to recognise that one mans freedom is another mans infringement. Or analogously - The freedom of motion of your fist ends before the point of my nose. This sort of balance of rights should be an innate consideration in any socio-economic-moral system. Yet lassiez faire dictates that if the market is such that your wealth and power make the rights of yours fist an overwhelming market consideration then my bloody and flattened nose can simply be disregarded as the necessary result of market forces.
It’s unworkable.
Edited by Straggler, : Splling
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 87 of 168 (649121)
01-20-2012 6:32 PM
Reply to: Message 86 by Jon
01-20-2012 5:28 PM


Re: Capitalism Does Not Equal Lassiez Faire
Yes. But tell that to those who see the "market" as some sort of force of nature that must be obeyed no matter what the human cost.

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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(3)
Message 123 of 168 (649340)
01-22-2012 3:26 PM
Reply to: Message 119 by NoNukes
01-22-2012 12:24 PM


"Knowledge Economy"
I think this discussion is getting hung up (rather pointlessly in my view) on defining what is or is not a "service job".
The issue is what jobs can or cannot be farmed out to cheaper workforces elsewhere in the world.
For some time the Western economies have accepted that many of the more menial manufacturing and service roles will be done more cheaply elsewhere and have instead staked their future on the "knowledge economy".
The problem with that, as I see it, is that even these high qualification high skill roles can increasingly be done by people in countries such as India and China for considerably less money.
It is this that I think will provide the biggest challenge for Western economies in the medium term future.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 119 by NoNukes, posted 01-22-2012 12:24 PM NoNukes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 126 by crashfrog, posted 01-22-2012 8:50 PM Straggler has replied
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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 129 of 168 (649383)
01-23-2012 5:36 AM
Reply to: Message 128 by caffeine
01-23-2012 5:00 AM


Re: Austerity backlash?
In recent weeks ratings agencies and multilateral institutions such as the world bank and IMF have all indicated that austerity is being implemented to a degree that might be self defeating.
Add to this that even right wing politicians in industrialised nations such as the UK and US are talking about things like income disparity, tax avoidance and bad forms of capitalism - And I think you are right that we are seeing something of a backlash.
How real it is or how long it lasts only time will tell. But cause for some optimism for those of us who think we are currently on the wrong path.

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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


(1)
Message 130 of 168 (649384)
01-23-2012 5:49 AM
Reply to: Message 126 by crashfrog
01-22-2012 8:50 PM


Re: "Knowledge Economy"
Sure. But it's not just China. When I started in IT every IT department had an in-house development section creating bits of bespoke code, database queries etc. Now I don't know of anywhere that has not outsourced this function to India or Eastern Europe. They are qualified, very good and comparatively cheap.
All the indications seem to be that this sort of trend will continue into other areas. And that will pose a problem for Western economies and workforces. Even the skilled and qualified that have been relatively immune thus far.
Crash writes:
And it's highly likely that, by the time China has such a population of skilled, highly-trained knowledge workers, living standards and the GDP of China will have risen to the point where it's not actually much cheaper to hire them.
Sure - We won't be hiring the services of world class bio-technologists from China for a few dollars a day or anything like that.
But as emerging economies take the lead in some areas it seems likely that skilled Western workers will emigrate to where those industries are cutting edge.
It's not too far fetched to imagine a point where American science graduates who want to be involved in space exploration will be looking to work for the Chinese space programme where once they would have dreamed of working at NASA.

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 Message 132 by ramoss, posted 01-23-2012 6:50 AM Straggler has replied

  
Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 134 of 168 (649391)
01-23-2012 8:40 AM
Reply to: Message 132 by ramoss
01-23-2012 6:50 AM


Re: "Knowledge Economy"
Ramoss writes:
While it has been sourced to India, the idea that it is 'very good' is quite incorrect.
Not in my experience specifically with regard to programmers. Whilst I am sure that the outsourcing of some jobs does result in a drop in quality (comical call centre scenarios come to mind) there is no inherent reason that it has to.
Ramoss writes:
It's cheap, but you get what you pay for.
You also partly get where you pay for. Paying someone a liveable wage in London will currently cost far more than paying someone what is deemed a good wage in Delhi.
Ramoss writes:
The problem is the turn over in those jobs is so great, the people aren't properly trained.
You seem to be talking about call centre staff and the like. I am talking about computer science graduates who are professional programmers.

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Replies to this message:
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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 156 of 168 (649571)
01-24-2012 12:39 PM
Reply to: Message 155 by crashfrog
01-24-2012 12:26 PM


Re: Yglesias on China
A left-leaning British economics commentator who considers himself something of an expert on China has serious misgivings about the ability of China to compete with democratic nations on the "knowledge economy" front.
I'd like to think he is right.......
Will Hutton writes:
China, as I once was memorably told by a group of lawyers in Beijing, is a volcano waiting to explode. It is difficult for those not familiar with the country to comprehend the scale of corruption, the waste of capital, the sheer inefficiency, the ubiquity of the party and the obeisance to hierarchy that is today's China. The mass of Chinese are proud and pleased with what has been achieved since Deng Xiaoping began the era of the "socialist market economy". But there is a widespread and growing recognition that the authoritarian model has to change, a fact that every disaster dramatises.
The railway ministry is a classic example. It is a state within a state, making its own rules and with its own well-honed, corrupt hierarchy commanding unquestioning obedience. Charged with building 9,000 miles of high-speed rail by 2020, as well as developing an allegedly indigenous high-speed rail capability better than Japan's or Europe's, it has pulled all the familiar levers to achieve its task. Huge loans from state-owned banks, directed to lend to the ministry in effect for free, have been thrown at the project. Technology has been purloined and stolen from abroad. Productivity, efficiency and safety are secondary to two overwhelming needs: to complete the network fast, so creating crucially needed jobs, and to be able to boast that China's capability is cheaper than anybody else's.
To win the lush contracts, officials' palms have to be liberally greased. Rail minister Liu Zhijun, architect of the high-speed rail plan, was suspended pending a corruption investigation in February. Nor is there is any open system to see whether the technologies actually function properly. There is no back-up for any systems failures, because there is no structure of accountability or any penalties if there are mistakes. The only excuse has been that until now the system has delivered. But Japan's bullet train has been operating for nearly 50 years without a single death. Now China has 39 on its hands with a system only four years old.
It also has 10,000 kms of high-speed rail already built whose economics depends on the trains being full. But nobody trusts the technology or the integrity of the officials running the system. The government promises a full inquiry, but nobody has any faith it will be anything else than a fix. China is discovering that a sophisticated knowledge economy operating at the frontiers of technology is incompatible with an authoritarian one-party state.
China, we are endlessly told by its apologists, is different. The values of the European Enlightenment — tolerance, the health of dissent, the rule of law, freedom of expression, pluralism — are not needed here. Wenzhou is one more bitter reminder; human pain and human instincts for accountability are universal. Moreover, they are the essential underpinnings of the good economy and society. There will be a Chinese Spring. And sooner than anyone expects.
Link

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Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 164 of 168 (649646)
01-24-2012 5:33 PM
Reply to: Message 162 by xongsmith
01-24-2012 2:31 PM


Re: "Knowledge Economy"
I have now worked for 3 different organisations (1 charity, 1 local government body and 1 UK wing of a multinational corporation) that have outsourced the IT development team function to India.
In each case the aim has not been to employ the cheapest people possible. In each case the aim has been to achieve the same or better quality that was present when the team was UK based but for less cost. And in each case I would say that has been achieved.
The wages we have paid are considered very good in India. And there has been no problem with recruitment, retention or quality of staff. If the development guys were crap my job (infrastructure implementation and support) would be incredibly difficult. I haven't found that to be the case at all.
X writes:
Perhaps the UK has a better way of screening the applicants.
In the case of the charity the lead UK programmer was Indian and he decided to take the opportunity to go back to India. He was paid less than in the UK but this was (he told me) more than made up for by the quality of life this salary allowed in India and for the autonomy of effectively having the freedom to put together and lead his own team out there.
The other two organisations had already outsourced before I joined but they have both had equally skilled and dedicated development staff.
It sounds like you and Ramoss have very different experiences to me. Of course if the aim is to pay the absolute lowest wage possible for tick-box qualifications then it is hardly surprising that things don't work out too well. Whether that is a particularly American outsourcing issue I don't know. I have been lucky enough so far to work for IT departments that are seeking the same quality for lower cost rather than the lowest cost period.
X writes:
We actually have programming jobs advertised here for No Money! And people take them!!
In the UK it has become practically impossible to get into some areas (law, fashion etc.) without working for free as an intern for some time (months) first. Only the kids of the rich are able to work for free and thus gain the experience necessary thus excluding much potential talent from ever breaking in. In fact there are cases with the most prestigious firms of parents paying backhanders to get their kids internships (i.e work for free) because it is a necessary step to get on in that career.
It is a crazy form of social immobility.
But that is another issue......

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