Peanut Gallery for Great debate: radiocarbon dating, Mindspawn and Coyote/RAZD

In Message 13 midspawn states Nope, these are NOT dealt with by handwaving gibberish about rainfall dependence, unless mindspawn thinks all scientists are gibbering idiots totally incapable of identifying and accounting for climate variations ...His comments have each been dealt with in detail to show that his fantasy criticisms are invalid. He just won't read it. Perhaps coyote should repost the entire peanut gallery thread so that mindspawn has no more excuse to ignore it. Certainly he has avoided confronting information in order to maintain his belief (cognitive dissonance in action).In Message 14 coyote replies Yes, it is the correlations that show that these methods are accurate and precise ... and consistently agree.Mindspawn needs to explain how a rainstorm over a lake in Japan affect the growth of trees on the Sierra Nevada mountains and in Ireland and Germany.Enjoy

If you want, and mindspawn agrees, I can take over for you

you appear to have missed a quote. I wonder if mindspawn is confusing calibration with correlation ... when one system is compared to another to see if there is a correlation, that is not calibrating either system. cal•i•brate
[kal-uh-breyt] verb (used with object), cal•i•brated, cal•i•brat•ing.

1. to determine, check, or rectify the graduation of (any instrument giving quantitative measurements).
2. to divide or mark with gradations, graduations, or other indexes of degree, quantity, etc., as on a thermometer, measuring cup, or the like.
3. to determine the correct range for (an artillery gun, mortar, etc.) by observing where the fired projectile hits.
4. to plan or devise (something) carefully so as to have a precise use, application, appeal, etc.: a sales strategy calibrated to rich investors.

cor•re•la•tion
[kawr-uh-ley-shuhn, kor-] noun

1. mutual relation of two or more things, parts, etc.: Studies find a positive correlation between severity of illness and nutritional status of the patients. Synonyms: similarity, correspondence, matching; parallelism, equivalence; interdependence, interrelationship, interconnection.
2. the act of correlating or state of being correlated.
3. Statistics. the degree to which two or more attributes or measurements on the same group of elements show a tendency to vary together.
4. Physiology . the interdependence or reciprocal relations of organs or functions.
5. Geology . the demonstrable equivalence, in age or lithology, of two or more stratigraphic units, as formations or members of such.

Another word used is consilience:

quote:

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In science and history, consilience (also convergence of evidence or concordance of evidence) refers to the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources can "converge" to strong conclusions. That is, when multiple sources of evidence are in agreement, the conclusion can be very strong even when none of the individual sources of evidence are very strong on their own. Most established scientific knowledge is supported by a convergence of evidence: if not, the evidence is comparatively weak, and there will not likely be a strong scientific consensus.

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The principle is based on the unity of knowledge; measuring the same result by several different methods should lead to the same answer. For example, it should not matter whether one measures the distance between the Great Pyramids of Giza by laser rangefinding, by satellite imaging, or with a meter stick - in all three cases, the answer should be approximately the same. For the same reason, different dating methods in geochronology should concur, a result in chemistry should not contradict a result in geology, etc.

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Perhaps the next version of my age dating correlations should use consilience as a more appropriate description.Enjoy.

Thanks! Another piece of information to add to the Age Correlations thread in its next incarnation.

quote:

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Abstract
Radiocarbon dating is the most widely used dating technique in the world. Recent advances in Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) and sample preparation techniques have reduced the sample-size requirements by a factor of 1000 and decreased the measurement time from weeks to minutes. Today, it is estimated that more than 90 percent of all measurements made on accelerator mass spectrometers are for radiocarbon age dates. The production of 14C in the atmosphere varies through time due to changes in the Earth’s geomagnetic field intensity and in its concentration, which is regulated by the carbon cycle. As a result of these two variables, a radiocarbon age is not equivalent to a calendar age. Four decades of joint research by the dendrochronology and radiocarbon communities have produced a radiocarbon calibration data set of remarkable precision and accuracy extending from the present to approximately 12,000 calendar years before present. This paper presents high precision paired 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 14C age determinations on pristine coral samples that enable us to extend the radiocarbon calibration curve from 12,000 to 50,000 years before present. We developed a statistical model to properly estimate sample age conversion from radiocarbon years to calendar years, taking full account of combined errors in input ages and calibration uncertainties. Our radiocarbon calibration program is publicly accessible at: sonny apache server along with full documentation of the samples, data, and our statistical calibration model.
(c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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bold addedNote high precision and accuracyEnjoyEdited by RAZD, : abstract

okay, thanks.Will you post on the GD thread to ask mindspawn? I'll check with PercyEnjoy

I asked coyote if he would mind if I took over, and be said yes. (Message 55)If it is okay with mindspawn, do you see any problems with us changing places (I would stop posting here).Enjoy

In Message 17 midspawn states The problems with the claim about precipitation sensitivity are:

1. it assumes that scientists that have spent decades of their lives studying these systems are so naive and incompetent that they have never considered these effects. This is bogus, as is clearly shown on the Grisino dendrochronology website.
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2. mindspawn has produced zero evidence that these three chronologies show precipitation sensitivity to such a degree that it would
   1. be mistaken for an annual ring -- matching the pattern of annual rings, and
   2. occur often yet
   3. still have correct dendrochronology dates for "the year without a summer"
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3. it requires that precisely the same identical precipitation pattern occurs high on the Sierra Nevada mountains, Ireland and Germany: these three chronologies agree to 99.5% for over 8,000 years of record. Not just two -- three different locations with precisely the same exact precipitation pattern ...

The problem with his comment about Uranium-Thorium dating is just plain ignorance. As pointed out by Percy (Message 50):

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Creationists have a way of cramming huge amounts of misinformation into a small number of words, and the above 13 words are no exception.

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1. "Uranium-Thorium" is a dating method, not an element with a half life.
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2. Uranium is one element, Thorium is another.
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3. Both Uranium and Thorium have a number of isotopes. Isotopes are a family of types of the same element with the same number of protons in the nucleus but different numbers of neutrons. Each isotope will have a different half-life, except for stable isotopes which do not decay and therefore do not have a half-life.
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4. The Uranium referred to is ²³⁴U with a half-life of 245,000 years.
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5. The Thorium referred to is ²³⁰Th with a half life of 75,000 years.
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6. The half-lives of both ²³⁴U and ²³⁰Th have been measured in the laboratory.

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Uranium decays into Thorium, so this is basically a parent-daughter dating system (see wiki Uranium-Thorium for how it works). Curiously this is not how science works, rather the consilience between the different systems makes the case stronger that they represent the same thing, in this case actual age. When we see this paired with the 99.5% precise accuracy of the tree ring chronologies and the overlap of 14C data between those chronologies and this Uranium-Thorium (parent-daughter) dating system that is developed from a totally different basis, it is a strong consilience. This means that his criticism of tree-rings is incorrect. Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 14C dates on pristine corals

quote:

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... Four decades of joint research by the dendrochronology and radiocarbon communities have produced a radiocarbon calibration data set of remarkable precision and accuracy extending from the present to approximately 12,000 calendar years before present. This paper presents high precision paired 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 14C age determinations on pristine coral samples that enable us to extend the radiocarbon calibration curve from 12,000 to 50,000 years before present. ...

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Precise and accurate. But not on opposite sides of the earth. This is just wishful thinking with no evidence to support it.mindspawn could try to provide evidence by actually showing that the same precipitation occurred in Germany, Ireland, Nevada and Japan in one year -- good luck with that. This too is wishful thinking combined with ignorance of how the layers are formed. The layers alternate between diatoms and clay. The diatoms bloom in the spring and summer and can go through several episodes of bloom and death and still create a single diatom layer. The clay layer can only occur when there is sufficient time for the clay to form a layer, and this is during the winter months when there is no diatom growth. The clay settles slowly, throughout the year, and it is only when the diatom deaths have stopped for several months that the accumulation is discernible independently from the diatom layer.This means NO tide sensitivity, NO precipitation sensitivity.This can be tested by taking large container and every day throw in a cup of clay and a cup of diatoms and see how they settle. This is basic soil physics. There is a physical difference between seasons that can differentiate the annual layershttp://www.asa3.org/aSA/PSCF/2003/PSCF12-03Seely.pdf (6)

quote:

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... GRIP was dated by counting back annual layers from the surface to c. 14,500 BP (before the present, dated 1950) using electrical conductivity method (ECM, see below) and the rest of the ice core was dated on the basis of flow modeling and chemical techniques. GISP2 was dated by visually counting annual hoar frost layers back to c. 12,000 BP and from 12,000 to 110,000 BP by visually counting annual dust layers. ...

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Again, it is absolutely absurd to think that the scientists involved with this work would be so naive and incompetent that they would be totally ignorant of the difference between snowfall layers and annual layers.Again, just throwing out off the cuff claims is not any valid way to criticize scientific work. Curiously, most weather does not occur in a lock-step exactly matched pattern world-wide.The recent typhoon in the Philippians would affect the precipitation in Japan, but have no effect on the precipitation in Nevada, Ireland and Germany. Similar storms can be found in recent history for each of these locations that do not affect the other locations.This totally refutes this claim of a "consistent worldwide rainfall pattern" ... and this means the argument based on it is invalidated, shown to be nothing better than fantasy wishful thinking.Enjoy.Edited by RAZD, : codingEdited by RAZD, : added

Message 64

see Dendrochronology Fact and Creationist Fraud

two things:(1) I concur with NoNukes that this is within his typical posting periods, it's too early to consider it an effect of cognitive dissonance, and I am willing to wait a few more days,and(2) Posts are as much for the lurkers as they are for the participants, and there often are lurkers who benefit even when the participants don't.Enjoy

not quite ... they took 7 samples and dated them by 14C, uncalibrated dates, and then took the uncalibrated dates and compared them to a dendrochronology (Bristlecone pine was used in another Egyptian study) to arrive at a dendro calendar age, and that age corresponded with the historical dates. A two-step process.

I would like to get a PDF ofLaMarche, V.C. Jr., Hirschboek, K.K., Frost Rings in Trees as Records of Major Volcanic Eruptions, Nature 307, 1984 p121-126I can get the abstract but not the full article, and would rather use this article than a news report on it.message me for emailREWright, R.D., Mooney, H.A., Substrate-oriented Distribution of Bristlecone Pine in the White Mountains of California, American Midland Naturalist, Vol. 73, No. 2 (Apr., 1965), pp. 257-284 Published by: The University of Notre Dame JSTOR: Access CheckMy Jstor shelf is full so I would need copy of this ... especially Fig 4ThanksEdited by RAZD, : added

can't download it

that works

fig 7 shows respiration and photosynthesis versus moisture
fig 4 shows moisture versus time
take the values for moisture at the different time point and plot those on fig 7 to obtain what the respiration and photosynthesis would be for those times