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Author Topic:   Increase in Natural Disasters? Prophesied?
Modulous
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Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 8 of 157 (256464)
11-03-2005 9:22 AM


Prophecy
I tried reading the last thread but I didn't find any references to the actual prophecy. So what/who has prophesized an increasing frequency of natural disasters starting from 1948?

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 Message 9 by PaulK, posted 11-03-2005 9:27 AM Modulous has not replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 37 of 157 (257017)
11-05-2005 7:49 AM


I went through all the data myself, here it is:
DATA
I don't see any significant upward trends...anybody else?

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 Message 38 by NosyNed, posted 11-05-2005 8:15 AM Modulous has replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 40 of 157 (257023)
11-05-2005 8:34 AM
Reply to: Message 38 by NosyNed
11-05-2005 8:15 AM


Re: Eyeballing it
I forgot to say where the data came from: here.
I noticed an increase at around 1994 - the year Britain started its national lottery. Maybe that angered God?
Also, 1932 seems to be the beginning of a small and general upward trend. that includes 1948. Was this prophesized?
Eyeballing that kind of noisy plot really doesn't cut it but I'll stick my neck out and say that there is a hint of something starting at about 1990. Hardly a match to Buzz's "prophesy".
The raw data is available on that page too...

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 Message 38 by NosyNed, posted 11-05-2005 8:15 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 57 of 157 (257257)
11-06-2005 8:38 AM


BBC
If you trust a site like webpennys for compiling data, I'm sure you'll trust the BBC.
Source
If we look at the evidence in total we see that the trend from the 1850s seems to be going down as far as landfall is concerned.
One question though: Why landfalling in the USA? Does the prophecy discuss natural disasters increasing in one particular nation? Cuba, the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica get quite a battering from Gulf Hurricanes, why discount them? For example, Hurricane #4 in 1906 or Hurricane #6 in 1908.

  
Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 58 of 157 (257260)
11-06-2005 8:49 AM
Reply to: Message 48 by Buzsaw
11-05-2005 10:31 PM


Re: Buzsaw "logic"
If you go to the Webpenny list and click on NOAA, you get the National Hurricane Center's NOAA chart from which Pennyweb got their data.
This page is not a list of all major landfall hurricanes, just some notable ones. As the page you were linked points out, it lists,
noaa site writes:
Number of hurricanes by Saffir-Simpson Category to strike the mainland U.S. each decade.
And as far as major hurricanes go:
quote:
1940s: 10
1950s: 8
1960s: 6
1970s: 4
1980s: 5
1990s: 5
A pretty clear downward trend.
However, I see from your chart here that it is listing all major hurricanes, not designating the landfall ones, or have I missed something?
Yes, you missed something, like the title,
the noaa site writes:
U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade
and the subtitle
the noaa site writes:
Number of hurricanes by Saffir-Simpson Category to strike the mainland U.S. each decade.
It is the landfall ones which our debate has been about.
It is the landfall ones the list documents, contrary to webpennys.
What do you think is the purpose of the NOAA list which Webpenny linked?
I'd say it was a list of historical hurricanes. It doesn't actually say what criteria would get a hurricane on that list, so we are left guessing.

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