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Author Topic:   the old improbable probability problem
zaius137
Member (Idle past 3399 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 48 of 76 (661887)
05-10-2012 7:11 PM
Reply to: Message 45 by RAZD
05-09-2012 6:34 PM


Re: redirected post
RAZD
I do not pretend to have written any papers or preformed any research. I can do some of the math but I do not posses a degree in the field. I am but a simple nonprofessional of average intelligence. Here is a paper that can dispel some of your fears about abiogenesis calculations. If there is anything in this paper that presents poser of a particular nature, please let’s talk.
Probability of one avenue of RNA World generation.
In the present paper, in order again to optimize the probability of cell formation by
random assembly, we restrict attention to the RNA-world. Then referring to eq. (11) in Part I, we see that, for a cell consisting of Np proteins, each of which is a polypeptide containing Na amino acids (aa), the probability of random assembly is 1 in 10b where
b = (Np +2) [ m log(Np) . qmax + qra ]
http://www.iscid.org/...lan_PrimitiveCellAddendum_022703.pdf

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zaius137
Member (Idle past 3399 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 52 of 76 (662168)
05-13-2012 2:11 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by RAZD
05-10-2012 8:53 PM


Re: probabiity problems
These questions and more need to be answered before the calculation can begin to be considered a valid representation of possibilities: you need to KNOW all the possibilities that can be formed, and how many could result in life of some kind, before you can begin to calculate probabilities.
I disagree with this statement. Do all the variables need to be quantified before any hypothesis can be formulated? If so, please name an area of science where strict adherence to this principle applies.
I suspect that if the conclusions of such an approach to calculating abiogenesis favored an optimistic possibility, evolutionists would not be so disturbed.
Did you hear the one about the statistician, evolutionists and the magician?
A magician performing before an audience of evolutionists produces two royal flushes in a row. The crowd stands to its feet in applause proclaiming, Look improbable events happen all the time. A single statistician, knowing the probability of pulling a royal flush is (649,350 : 1) and twice is (421,655,422,500 : 1) stands to his feet and yells fraud. The statistician is immediately ejected from the assembly as being closed minded to the possibility of very real magic.
Funny if the statistician was a creationist but tragic if he wasn’t.

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zaius137
Member (Idle past 3399 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 59 of 76 (662240)
05-14-2012 1:11 AM
Reply to: Message 54 by Tangle
05-13-2012 3:58 AM


Re: probabiity problems
You've just proved Raz's case. The statistician knew how many cards there are in a deck and how many of each suit. Without that information he could not calculate the odds.
Exactly, biologists know which proteins are common to all life, the Chirality, the amino acid components and a great number of other facts about the genome in essence they know what the cards are this only goes to show a estimation of a probability can be made.
Edited by zaius137, : No reason given.

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Replies to this message:
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zaius137
Member (Idle past 3399 days)
Posts: 407
Joined: 05-08-2012


Message 61 of 76 (662242)
05-14-2012 1:45 AM
Reply to: Message 60 by PaulK
05-14-2012 1:21 AM


Re: probabiity problems
So basically creationists argue that the magician must have worked real magic because we can't consider any alternatives to that, other than pure chance...
I can honestly say I do not believe in magic can you?

This message is a reply to:
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