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Author Topic:   the old improbable probability problem
nator
Member (Idle past 2160 days)
Posts: 12961
From: Ann Arbor
Joined: 12-09-2001


Message 15 of 76 (141189)
09-09-2004 10:26 AM
Reply to: Message 6 by crashfrog
05-11-2004 8:43 PM


quote:
With the way statistics are bandied about by politicians - usually erroneously - I don't see how one could truly be a full-fledged participant in democracy without an ability to sort good statistical reasoning from bad.
Absolutely.
For example, the reports that recent polls that showed the Bush got an 11 point lead over Kerry...
Well, first of all, out of 8 polls, only two polls showed that. The rest had a much smaller lead, or showed Kerry ahead of Bush.
Now, the deal with the high polls is that those two particular news sources didn't correct for bias in their samples, which is what all the major polling companies do.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 6 by crashfrog, posted 05-11-2004 8:43 PM crashfrog has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 17 by coffee_addict, posted 09-09-2004 11:04 PM nator has not replied

  
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