Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top

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Does this part of the letter, "supplementary federal assistance", refer to FEMA in your opinion?

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Yes, about nine million dollar's worth, presumably in addition to the FEMA resources that were already on their way.

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The following information is furnished on efforts and resources of other Federal agencies, which have been or will be used in responding to this incident:
” FEMA ERT-A Team en-route.

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So was FEMA got involved on the 27?

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The letter said that there was a "FEMA ERT-A team enroute".On the 27th, however, Katrina was a category 3 hurricane that would make landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Alabama, and New Orleans was dry.Are you suggesting that we should send the 82nd Airborne into New Orleans every time there's a hurricane in the Gulf? Have you paid attention to how many false alarms like that there are every year?

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This says it was going into New Orleans

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You can't forecast a hurricane with that kind of confidence 48 hours in advance. I know this from personal experience from trying to be in the paths of hurricanes.A corollary is that it's very difficult to anticipate the strength of a hurricane prior to landfall.National Hurricane Center Advisories > WikipediaThis is from the 1 PM Advisory on 27 Aug

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...CATEGORY THREE KATRINA MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THE PAST FEW HOURS...

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A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

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A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

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A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS.

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Forgive the caps and the awkward pauses, that's National Weather Service format.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 02:18 PM

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This says Kitrina could become a Category 4
She had to make a decision based on someones prediction.

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First of all, what point are you trying to make? If you want to say that Blanco knew that Katrina would make landfall as a category 4, and that she knew it would strike New Orleans, why did she only ask for nine million dollar's worth of aid--not only for New Orleans, but for the entire State of Louisiana?This unusual turn of events has actually placed me in the position of defending Blanco by pointing out that there is no way she could have known with certainty what the storm would do 48 hours in advance.Yes, it was predicted to reach Category 4 but that in itself isn't unusual. Lili was a Cat 4 hours before landfall in Louisiana. At landfall it was a Category 1. That was only a couple of years ago and would be well in the minds of the Louisianans. Even more recent was last years fiasco with Ivan, that made a last-minute turn towards Pensacola. It also was a Category 4 prior to landfall. And it did a lot of damage, but not like what we see from Katrina.Essentially you need to know three things to make a competent decision about how much Federal help you need:(a) You need to know how strong the hurricane will be.(b) You need to know where that hurricane will make lanfall.(c) You need to know the area exposed to certain wind velocities.30 miles can make all the difference in the world.Now, to show you the extent of the area under hurricane advisories, here is the 4 PM August 27th advisory:

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AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

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A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATRINA.

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Here are the 11 PM Aug 27 strike probabilities for Hurricane Katrina:Hurricane KATRINA?There is a 17% chance it would hit New Orleans.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 02:34 PM

I overlooked this:

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We will talk later. I have a 3 hour drive ahead of me.

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Okay, have a safe trip.

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(1) The department of Homeland Security was created under this administration specifically to bring together different agencies and levels of government (local to federal) to handle disasters, and that previous failures of FEMA are irrelevant to the failure of DHS to improve the system: I think we can agree that FEMA is not one scintilla better in this system than it was before.

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Right. That's one of the reasons there should be a bipartison investigation: Bush has too much of a stake in this since he pushed for the unification.I think that covers (2) also.(3) There is nothing here I disagree with, really we need more information.(4) What legal power does the DHS have to force New Orleans to make a plan, and then stand by it in an emergency?(5a) There is nothing I can possibly say to justify these two appointments.(5b) Yes, primary authority rests with the lowest level of government.

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In accordance with FEMA’s primary authorizing legislation, the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, FEMA is first and foremost a coordinating agency. The Agency therefore relies on strong partnerships to successfully carry out its mission. FEMA works with a variety of partners, including Federal agencies, States, Territories, Tribal Nations, local governments, first responders, voluntary organizations, business, industry, and individuals. While the Agency’s mission is squarely focused on protecting and preparing the Nation as a whole, primary responsibility for disaster response rests with State and local authorities.

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Source: http://www.fema.gov/library/strategicplanfy03.shtm

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All incidents are handled at the lowest possible organizational and jurisdictional level. Police, fire, public health and medical, emergency management, and other personnel are responsible for incident management at the local level. For those events that rise to the level of an Incident of National Significance, the Department of Homeland Security provides operational and/or resource coordination for Federal support to on-scene incident command structures.

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Emphasis on Local Response

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All incidents are handled at the lowest possible organizational and jurisdictional level. Police, fire, public health and medical, emergency management, and other personnel are responsible for incident management at the local level. For those events that rise to the level of an Incident of National Significance, the Department of Homeland Security provides operational and/or resource coordination for Federal support to on-scene incident command structures.

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http://www.dhs.gov/.../interapp/editorial/editorial_0569.xmlHow many times in the Stafford Act do the words "coordinate" and "assist" appear in the duties of FEMA? How often does the phrase "assume authority" appear?Again, I'm not really interested in rehashing this over and over again. I'm simply going to say that there should probably be legislative action if we are to make serious changes and permanent changes to how FEMA and DHS operate. Not that the current occupants of the Executive necessarily would be enthusiastic about such changes, but I think it's more fundamental an issue than merely the actions of a single president.

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The city could have had a wonderful evacuation plan that commandeered every single bus, truck, train, whatever to move people out of the city, but what happens when you reach the city boundary? The state boundary? How can the city {know\plan\ensure} that there are adequate {resources\places\assistance} where the people end up?

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Somebody might have realized, hey, my city is below sea level. Maybe we should enter into a strategic partnership with another city for handling displaced persons? Houston was glad to help after the storm.Of course, in their defense N.O. is a poor city and such an agreement would likely involve money changing hands, and other mayors are less likely to agree to a binding pact when New Orleans is dry than after watching hours continuous rescues and shelter crises on all the news channels. Similar principle to "easier to get forgiveness than permission".(5c) I like the idea of requiring FEMA to be more proactive in the rare catastrophes. I also like the idea of using Federal resources like bases in an integrated, multistate evacuation plan. I believe it was Jesse Jackson that suggested within a few days of the storm and I still think it's viable. There are other good suggestions as well.If the United States wants to continue to persist for another 200 years then people think need to think about major catastrophes (bigger than this one), continuity of gov't, etc. There are bigger problems out there than hurricanes, specifically nuclear war, the probability of which I would say gets closer to one as the decades pass by.(5d) We're not going to settle State's rights issues or the ideal size of the Federal government, so I will simply agree to disagree.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 11:27 PM

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it is not the sole job of nagin to prepare for disaster, nor is it his duty to only work on ways to prevent disaster and clean them up afterwards. neither is it blanco's job.

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No, not the sole job in preparation, FEMA can help operational planning, like an evacuation that you just mentioned they probably should have preplanned.But when a hurricane comes barreling at New Orleans, Nagin is the first line of defense.

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but it IS fema's job. what i'm asking for is that they do their job, and do it effectively.

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And we need to (a) find out why the response was ineffective (b) fire the incompetents and (c) quit with the nepotistic hiring practices.

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actually, when HIS boss writes to the president and says "we can't handle it here" nagin is certainly not the first line of defense. fema is. that's what that declaration of a state of disaster on the 27th was for.

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In the sense that DHS and FEMA like for as much of the work as possible to be done at the lowest levels, he is the first line of defense. In the sense that the standard operating procedure is for the governor to ask for troops before they are sent in, Blanco is on the first line of defense. In the sense that they are first and foremost coordinating agencies, the local authorities are on the first line of defense.On August 27, when the Governor asked for a declaration of emergency, Katrina was a Category 3 forecast to strengthen, though landfall was still 'up in the air':

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AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

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ALSO AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO
DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.

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And according to another forecast product by the NHC, the forecast probabilities issued at 4 PM Aug 27 there was a 21% chance of the eye of the hurricane making landfall within 65 nautical miles of New Orleans before 1 PM Tuesday.That means that there's a 79% chance of the storm making landfall more than 65 nautical miles or remaining at sea through 1 PM Tuesday.Hurricane KATRINA?Some of you may feel that we should send in the cavalry at that point. However, this is not a very uncommon situation for Gulf hurricnes. For example, this is from the ten PM Wednesday, October 2, 2002, advisory for Hurricane Lili:

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...LILI REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...DEADLY 10 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE APPROACHING THE COAST...
...FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION NOW...FOLLOW ADVICE FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

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A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH
ISLAND TEXAS...AND FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

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AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH ISLAND ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.

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LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL COAST OF
LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING.

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REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RESEARCH HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LILI IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/...2002/pub/al132002.public.047.htmlThat particular advisory was also accompanied by a strike probability table that listed New Orleans as 47%.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/...2002/prb/al132002.prblty.047.htmlHow about another recent hurricane?10 PM Tuesday September 14 2004

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...LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN HEADED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

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A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

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A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

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A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

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AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

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AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

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IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.

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Hurricane IVAN?Now, the 10 PM 14 Sep 2004 strike probability for New Orleans: 26%Hurricane IVAN?If the Bush Administration had already dropped paratroopers into New Orleans twice before Hurricane Katrina, do you think that Democrats might have made fun of him a little for it by then? It would be nice if we had perfect forecasts but uncertainty is par for the course.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 11:09 AM

There's another interesting topic I just came across.Cindy Sheehan wrote a commentary in which she decried the occupation of New Orleans.

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One thing that truly troubled me about my visit to Louisiana was the level of the military presence there. I imagined before that if the military had to be used in a CONUS (Continental US) operations that they would be there to help the citizens: Clothe them, feed them, shelter them, and protect them. But what I saw was a city that is occupied. I saw soldiers walking around in patrols of 7 with their weapons slung on their backs. I wanted to ask one of them what it would take for one of them to shoot me. Sand bags were removed from private property to make machine gun nests.

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The vast majority of people who were looting in New Orleans were doing so to feed their families or to get resources to get their families out of there. If I had a store with an inventory of insured belongings, and a tragedy happened, I would fling my doors open and tell everyone to take what they need: it is only stuff. When our fellow citizens are told to "shoot to kill" other fellow citizens because they want to stay alive, that is military and governmental fascism gone out of control. What I saw today in Algiers lifted up my spirits, but what I also saw today in Algiers frightened me terribly.

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And:

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I don't care if a human being is black, brown, white, yellow or pink. I don't care if a human being is Christian, Muslim, Jew, Buddhist, or pagan. I don't care what flag a person salutes: if a human being is hungry, then it is up to another human being to feed him/her. George Bush needs to stop talking, admit the mistakes of his all around failed administration, pull our troops out of occupied New Orleans and Iraq, and excuse his self from power. The only way America will become more secure is if we have a new administration that cares about Americans even if they don't fall into the top two percent of the wealthiest.

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Emphasis mine.In fact, you will find the entire commentary posted on MichaelMoore.ComMichael Moore | SubstackIf Cindy Sheehan is ticked off at Bush for "occupying" New Orleans, instilling order, and ending looting, imagine how angry she would be if for Ivan and Lili he had inserted thousands of troops without their being requested from the Governor?This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 04:54 PM

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What if FEMA had responded several days earlier? Would New Orleans needed to have been occupied?

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"Several days earlier" Katrina was a Category 1 hurricane in Florida, and there was no real evidence that such a catastrophe was imminent. Please see my previous post (message 255) in which I compare the history of Katrina to previous hurricanes Lili and Ivan, thus showing that there was nothing extraordinary enough to justify a massive deployment of troops and Federal personnel on the 27th of August, and that even if such a deployment had occured, there was no place in particular to concentrate them. On top of that, you risk endangering Federal assets by deliberately exposing them to a disaster beforehand.Further, unless the FEMA people would have been magically fixing those levee breaches faster than the water was tearing through it would not have changed the outcome.Finally, FEMA was very slow but FEMA usually is.You know, there already is an emerging conspiracy theory: that explosives residue was supposedly found on levee debris and covered-up by the Corps of Engineers. Shall we unpack the tinfoil?This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 05:38 PMThis message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 05:39 PM

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But this is trumped by the DHS legislation and the reassignment of FEMA under DHS.

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Well then

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This is straight conservative small government handbook thinking, and in the case of Katrina and the whole gulf coast this was shown to be ... unforgivable at best, criminally negligent at worst (sorry if I don't think "unnacceptable" is even a start at an acceptable response -- people rescued later than necessary is unacceptable, people dying as a result is abominable).

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In other words, you are exploiting it to make a political statement about the ideal size and powers of the Federal government?Neither the Federal government nor the State or local governments can take primary responsibility for the safety of individuals who choose to live in a city below sea level and then, for whatever reason, do not leave. And in the case of people who were pulled from rooftops, did not even take their mayor's advice and go to the Superdome. THAT is conservative, small government thinking. If everybody thought this way:(1) New Orleans would be a lot smaller to begin with (I might not have lived there because I've been expecting this disaster, if I did, I would get flood insurance and have a car to leave. If I couldn't afford those things, then I couldn't afford New Orleans).(2) Fewer people would have remained in the city.(3) There wouldn't be people still needing to be rescued because they would have walked to the Superdome or convention center before the storm had they not been able to get out of the city.(4) 800+ people probably would not have died.But since personal responsibility isn't PC these days, we have this partisan attempt to blame Bush for people that willingly chose to remain, not only in New Orleans but in unsafe housing projects.You gave me your editorial with the "criminal negligence" quip, that's mine. It's hardly "criminal negligence" when we are talking about adults who should have gotten out but chose not to do so.

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Looks like they don't take their own mission statement at face value - like I said, pretty words don't accomplish anything if they aren't backed up by action.

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Unless lead=coordinate.And you didn't answer my question.Under what legal authority can DHS force New Orleans to have an acceptable evacuation plan, and stick to it?

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Fine, but first lets build the answers to the known problems, and look at ways to include others (we had atomic bomb shelters, I know of one that is less than 5 miles from here ...)

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Was it stocked and ready? Have you visited it? Another problem is that nuclear shelters are usually put in the ground and not higher than the first story. If you're anticipating 30 feet of water...And please, while you are at, explain what you mean by "later than necessary", and how you know how long is "necessary".This message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 07:40 PMThis message has been edited by gene90, 09-16-2005 07:59 PM

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Because it is a bogus question. Under what legal authority can any department of anything force any person to do anything?

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You said that it's the because of a failure of the DHS if New Orleans wasn't prepared.That logic is specious until you demonstrate that if DHS told NO to prepare, they would.How do you suggest that DHS enforce it's "leadership" role?

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if Nagin refuses to set up the meetings, then keep asking and documenting the requests and responses.

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LOL. Basically, Leadership Through Annoyance.Look, I agree that DHS uses too many "pretty words" in it's mission statement but claiming that they have control over everything that happens is nonsense.I restate the question:What can DHS do if New Orleans doesn't have an acceptable plan?What can DHS do if other States don't want to play ball?

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You can imagine the effectiveness of such documentation on a hearing into the failures we've seen.

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Only if such a disaster actually occurs, and nobody expects one during their time in office. That isn't a valid threat until after the bungle-up happens.

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Clearly they had a mandate to coordinate all levels of government

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A mandate. Where is the legal authority?

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and only a totally incompetent manager would think that this only applies after {the situation} has already occurred.

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But it does only apply after a "situation". You said it yourself: you would have hearings and then public outrage. You need a foulup for that.

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Actually it is exhibited as an example of the cold war

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You want to shelter people in a museum exhibit?

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and is in the basement of an old factory that is becoming an upscale {business\condo} redevelopment for yuppie dink types.

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You want to shelter people in a "museum"-type exhibit that is in a basement. And I presume this is in New Orleans?

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But when the nation was under a nationwide threat the federal government set up a program that created these centers. Of course this is the same government (dems reps libs cons) that went to the moon and established the Peace Corps, so the ability is there to accomplish great things, what is missing {now} is the will and the inspiration that true leadership gives.

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First of all, though, there is no evidence that the shelter system would have functioned well enough, fortunately we never had to find out. That shelter system was also inspired by a clear threat of nuclear annihilation that occasonally bordered on hysteria.That being said, if DHS were to bring back a shelter program (for hurricanes and for nuclear fallout) I would politically support that.

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There is a story in the news of an elderly woman who called on her phone Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday saying that the water was rising inside her house and she could not get out and to please send help. On Friday she drowned. They knew the location of the house. That is "later than necessary" with room to spare in my mind.

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This is an Appeal to Emotion when I asked for a logical argument.I am not asking if they got there too late to rescue everyone. It was "too late" to rescue everyone when the hurricane struck. I am asking how fast they could have reasonably gotten there, and how you know. I would like to know how you know how long the logistics should take, what units to move in from where, how long it takes to clear the roads, how long it should actually take the Coast Guard to make 30,000 rescue ops. that sort of thing.This is what you need to produce before you can say that it took unreasonably long. I haven't seen this from you, and until it is provided, you are committing the logical fallacy of Begging the Question.The question stands.

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Not for those who had means and opportunity. If you read my first post on Katrina you will see that position echoed. The concern is for those who do not have the means

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They should have gone to the Superdome.More to the point, they should not have lived in a city below sea level without having a means of escape.

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Except we are also talking about people who cannot afford to leave the city they were born in.

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Why can't they?Citizens of Mexico can illegally cross the US border with virtually no resources and relocate essentially anywhere in the Lower 48. Many of the citizens of New Orleans are poor...but I doubt that poor.

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My experience is that many people will refuse to move until it is too late. We see this in NC with Ophelia sitting on top of the Outerbanks, an area of (geologically temporary) low sandy eroding islands with no high ground and access limited by old narrow bridges that would probably be taken out by any kind of storm surge.

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I have remained in a hurricane's path but through my own conscious decision, fully comprehending the risk. If I had died or been inconvenienced by an overwhelmed government unable to instantly rescue me, that would have been my own fault.

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But I don't blame bush for those that chose to remain and who had the means to evacuate.

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Then we have at least some common ground.

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I do hold his DHS responsible for failing to plan for the evacuation of those who want to leave and can't

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Why didn't Nagin plan? Don't you hold him responsible for that?And further, technically those people should have planned. Like I said, if I could not afford a car and flood insurance, then I don't think I could afford to live in New Orleans. And even if I did, I would have been darn sure to check a topo map before finding digs.I guess you could blame the government for that too if you wanted...encouraging the poor to live in a dangerous place through housing projects.I'll agree though that DHS should have a plan for New Orleans. They should also have a plan for a mag 9 earthquake in Washington State, too. I don't want to say that I think DHS was running at anything near what it should have done. I'm just not satisfied with all these claims like "they weren't fast enough" (how fast should they have been given the resources and warning they had?)

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You have greater faith in human nature than I do.

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Not nature, but common sense.

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Remember that the historical experience of Americans is that evacuation is haphazard, uncontrolled chaos that usually results in vehicles lined up for miles going no-where. Talk to anyone from the coast and you will hear the pros and cons of evacuation debated, and the biggest con is blocked roads and the greater vulnerability on the blocked roads.

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Yeah, but how often does not everyone get out? Now, this is something else DHS needs to be thinking about: making sure that evacuations can finish before landfall. But that's OT.

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Most of the people that I knew that refused to evacuate the coast were white middle class card carrying NRA members of the republican party (in part because most of the people I knew there were white middle class card carrying NRA members of the republican party). Stupid behavior is not limited to one party over the other.

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Hah! I can picture that--though I still hate to think that they were endangered, and perhaps some even killed, in the storm.

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Ignorant behavior - and perceptions - can be changed with new information. We did, after all, go to the moon.

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If you say that the government (preferably with help from the States) should improve education, then I'm with you on it. Same thing with the shelter program you were talking about.This message has been edited by gene90, 09-17-2005 10:32 AM

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For starters, DHS could proceed to make their own plan taking whatever NO had as a starting point, incorporating anything from the states in the area, and then presenting the result to the others for comments and considerations.

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I think that's fair, but...

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If they are leaders they shouldn't have to wait for anyone. The legal authority is to lead, not to follow.

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How do they enforce it?CNN just ran (in the last ten minutes, on their flagship channel) a story that Nagin is saying that business owners should return to New Orleans, but the Feds are saying that the conditions aren't acceptable and that anyone who returns does so on their own risk. Who should the people of New Orleans listen to?Why isn't Nagin following the Federal line, if the Feds are his boss? I'm curious about how much authority they have in this situation.

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What I was using the atomic bomb shelters for, was an example of planning on a national level for a foreseen disaster, and mobilizing the population, some to make individual shelters (again, like tornado shelters?). This shows that this kind of planning and implementation is feasible. Whether it is adequate is another matter, but compared to what we saw, there is a lot of room for improvement before we even get to adequate eh?

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Okay.

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Problem is, nobody said that it was a bad plan ... or that it would take 5 days for the feds to arrive in sufficient numbers (beyond the USCG SAR members)

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:Nods: at recognition of people doing their job.

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Then we disagree. To me if one (1) life could have been saved by a slightly quicker response then that is sufficient evidence of it taking an "unreasonably long" time to rescue them, given the massive delays that were observed.

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Okay, but if you were in charge of FEMA (or DHS if you prefer) could you have assured us that you would have gotten everyone out? How can you assure this is even possible?Yes, one life lost is too many, and I can say that about a lot of things. But I think the question should be whether it is reasonable to expect that no life will be lost.

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When I liven in Indiana we had opportunity to buy shorefront property on several small river connected lakes, and we chose one where there was about 15ft elevation between the lake and the house because all the others were on floodplain (river and lake). While we lived there they had a "100 year" flood that cause this {river\lake} system to rise 10 feet and flooded all the other houses we looked at (among others), but not ours.

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That's the smart thing to do, and more people should think like that. Especially this case since you're talking about shorefront property...I doubt that building in that area was out of economic necessity since that usually drives up land value.Around here I know where the floodplains are, and some of them are getting townhouses built on them. Should've stayed a golf course.

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What exactly does she do, precisely, that causes you to put her forth as someone who's opinion I should give a fuck about?

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You admit that Sheehan doesn't have a clue about what she's talking about?

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As I understand it, as soon as the president declares a national disaster that DHS can take over. That was Aug 29 in this case, but there is no reason you could not contact the governors before and organize this a day earlier when you have a very good idea {when\where} the storm will hit. Beyond that, (here we'll assume that DHS actually did it's job) you have a plan for pre-emptive manning specific evacuation centers across the gulf states...

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Okay, but right now you have the mayor of New Orleans and the current head of the Federal relief effort contradicting each other. See my previous post.

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Shakes head at "leaders" waiting until disaster strikes before they begin to do their job.

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Fair criticism, assuming that the Feds have power to force compliance.

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I didn't say that. I said if one was lost due to avoidable delay then it is "unreasonably long" ... I accept that some deaths will occur in disasters, the job is to minimize them.

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Okay, and you mentioned a lady that died after calling for help several times. But what we don't know is how many resources were available to rescue her, how thinly spread the Coast Guard was in making rescues, etc.Like I said, one life is too many, but what we want to know is how many can reasonably be expected to be saved.

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Heck, a lot of housing in NO could have had all living areas raised above floodplain, certainly there is no excuse for the hotels and hospitals and businesses and the like not to have been "hardened" for the "big one" just like they are in california earthquake zones.

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Right, but normally building codes are the province of local governments.

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If I were involved in planning for the future of NO the one fact I would start from is that the land is continuously sinking (and has been for ... almost ever), and this leads to three solutions:

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(1) abandon New Orleans and let nature take it's course.
(2) fill in New Orleans and jack everything up as time passes so that it stays above sea level (and instead of levee building you have ongoing projects to raise the various low levels).(*)
(3) you convert New Orleans, raise the buildings on islands of filled foundations, create elevated passageways for {pedestrians\vehicles} (or eliminate personal vehicles and go to rapid transit systems and emegency vehicles), and turn the roadways into canals, a new venice.

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My preference would be for (3), but that's the romantic "ol' soul in me oh" .

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Of course any rebuilding should also include specific planned emergency evacuation centers ... (those fully planned within the city limits eh?)

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Okay, but if you were in charge of FEMA or DHS on last August 27th...how quickly should FEMA have gotten there, with how many people, and how do we know the figures are reasonable?

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There should be ways to seperate noxious trash from stabilized(able) solid material and use this in an ongoing program.

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This is already done. Guidelines positioning landfills make a distinction between "rubbish"--chemically stable building materials, and "garbage"--containing items you want to be careful to separate from your aquifer. The rubbish landfill is a lot easier to license. Basically you're talking about moving this rubbish to build on. Subsidence/compaction will likely cause some foundation damage but it's a way that cities have historically dealt with flooding and added real-estate to waterlines.

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On August 26 you have to be pretty sure when the storm is going to land, even if the exact location and strength is indeterminate: you move people into the evacuation centers to man them across the whole projected storm region (with a good plan most people would already be {near\available}, such as National Guard Units and First Responders, and special units, like amphibious craft, around centers of special concern, like NO), taking the 27th and 28th to finish the job and to refine the center of {SAR\aid\relief\resources\etc} necessary. You do this by contacting the governors and telling them you are staffing the centers in accordance with the plan.

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How much would this cost? You might want to look at, I think, message 255, in which I show that on the 27th this hurricane wasn't looking like as much of a threat as two "duds" for New Orleans in the last few years.