|
Register | Sign In |
|
QuickSearch
EvC Forum active members: 64 (9164 total) |
| |
ChatGPT | |
Total: 916,890 Year: 4,147/9,624 Month: 1,018/974 Week: 345/286 Day: 1/65 Hour: 0/1 |
Thread ▼ Details |
Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
|
Thread Info
|
|
|
Author | Topic: Department Of Homeland Security Inaction At the Top | |||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: No, but 500 buses can do it before. Do you not see how absurd Crashfrog is in saying that just because he can drive to New Orleans in six hours under normal conditions that National Guard should do the same after the largest national disaster in American history? Are you getting enough oxygen over there?
quote: The buses could have left before the hurricane and it wouldn't have been a problem. Second of all, when a hurricane is coming at you at 15-30 MPH, outrunning it is feasible. If I were in New Orleans, and had the proper permit, I would have volunteered to drive one of the buses. There is no reasonable doubt that those buses could not have gotten out of New Orleans like the the other hundreds of thousands that drove themselves out. It is a non-issue. And you have utterly failed to substantiate your opposition to it. This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 11:20 PM
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1372 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
Remember that bridge I mentioned that was out? A truck driver, sadly enough, was killed on it during the storm. But it proves that until he decided to cross a bridge that he should have avoided, his high-profile vehicle was able to follow roads that generally trended only a mile or so from the ocean. right, now try that in a hurricane, on elevated bridges ACROSS lakes, with 15-20 feet of waves.
And I never said that it would be "during a hurricane". The traffic out of the city was gone before tropical-storm force winds came up. source? and i consider it to be a "hurricane" if there are sustained 74mph winds outside, even if the eye is hours from landfall. i'm sorry if the standard definition is misleading.
Your own source said that when the first signs of flooding from Ponchartrain occured, the streets were empty except for police. streets ≠ highways.
And again, even the police usually take shelter before the roads really become untenable. if i were a police officer, that'd be about the time i'd looked for shelter. but that's just speculation, isn't it?
I said that 3,000+ buses could evacuate the city with room to spare the accepted figure, btw, is 2,000. unfortunately, nola does not have 2,000 buses.
500 buses would only get out 20,000 people, but that's still a lot. About the same number that were in the Superdome when the storm hit, and I've already posted the fact that the Superdome was probably a lousy place to be from a structural standpoint. so, 500 buses could have evacuated the city safely, then? it's not a strawman if it's actually point. and yes, they probably could have -- if it was done significantly before the storm. it would have to have been organized in advance, and it was not. what WAS organized in advance was evacuation to the superdome. and they only moved about 9,000 people if i recall. so they would not have been able to round up that 20,000 figure. the superdome had about 26-28,000 at its peak occupancy, i think. (check it if you'd like) but there was definitally an increase AFTER the storm. those buses are needed NOW, not during the storm, and certainly more than they were before. a brighter plan, while we're speculating, would have been to evacuate the buses to higher ground within the city. or taken everyone within the city they could with every single bus they could, and then come back after the storm. however, i think part of the problem was the unpredictability of the levee breaches. not that they would, but which ones. those buses currently underwater would certainly be in operation if they could have been. if not from city officials, then from people who know how to hotwire.
and I've already posted the fact that the Superdome was probably a lousy place to be from a structural standpoint. misinformation goes alogn way. everyone thought it would be safe, but it was not. it's easy to say in retrospect that of course the titanic would hit an iceberg and it would sink, but before that actually happened it was considered the safest ship ever made. the superdome was considered safe by the state and local government before the storm. if that's a goof up on their part, so be it.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: And why do the buses have to wait until during the hurricane to leave?
quote: Look, there is little thing called 'burden of proof'. Normally the person making an affirmative statement is required to support that statement. You have said over and over again that evacuation buses would cause there to still be traffic when the storm hit. I'm still waiting on you to support that assumption.
quote: Well, that's a good idea. I bet you have others, too. Why don't you elaborate on it further rather than wasting my time with strawmen. Seriously, I am interested in what better solutions there might have been--including those that don't involve driving people out of the city. And it could get this discussion back on track That could be more interest than having to remind you every single time that you are building strawmen and begging the question. I don't think I'm ever going to hear a justification for that.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1372 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
No, but 500 buses can do it before. *cough* then so can the national guard.
Do you not see how absurd Crashfrog is in saying that just because he can drive to New Orleans in six hours under normal conditions that National Guard should do the same after the largest national disaster in American history? right. now imagine the same with traffic, and lots of wind and water. i'm sorry, you really can't have it both ways here gene. pick one and go with it. either the buses could get out, or the national guard couldn't get in. also. don't they have HELLICOPTERS?
Second of all, when a hurricane is coming at you at 15-30 MPH, outrunning it is feasible. sure. when traffic is running faster 15-30 mph. you haven't shown that the highways were clear by the time windforce got as high as a hurricane.
If I were in New Orleans, and had the proper permit, I would have volunteered to drive one of the buses. sure, i would have too. so would a lot of people. easy to say sitting here, isn't it?
There is no reasonable doubt that those buses could not have gotten out of New Orleans like the the other hundreds of thousands that drove themselves out. It is a non-issue. And you have utterly failed to substantiate your opposition to it. yes, but they would have had to have been stolen to do that. they were being used at the time to ferry people to the superdome. you're arguing that the plan should have been changed. yes, it probably should have. that's fine, i acknowledge that. but it's alot easier to say in retrospect.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: If you called them up 24-48 hours before the major catastrophe. What was Katrina's strength 48 hours before landfall? Second of all, you have forgotten that prepositioning assets in the disaster area before the disaster endangers those assets. I don't see how sending in the guard beforehand would be more ethical than forcing police and paramedics to go into the mandatory evacuation zone at the height of the storm. Despite that, I distinctly remember the Guard being in New Orleans, seeing as how they were the ones running the Superdome operation, at least the weapons checks.
quote: I think it's obvious that the Guard could've gotten in prior to the storm, were it possible to do so on such short notice *and* considered a wise and ethical use of resources.
quote: Yeah. Military helicopters were rescuing people Tuesday afternoon. In fact, by now they have rescued 30,000 people. But the presence of helicopters (and more to the point, an airport out of which you can fly C-130s) doesn't help you mobilize any faster, it just reduces travel time.
quote: Sure it is, since there would have been no danger.
quote: I have to agree.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: To answer my own question, it was a Category 3 aimed at somewhere between about Morgan City and the Pearl River. Where are you going to send those troops, and how many? What if it pulls an Ivan? Hurricane KATRINA? This message has been edited by gene90, 09-14-2005 11:49 PM
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1372 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
And why do the buses have to wait until during the hurricane to leave? your scenario. not mine.
Look, there is little thing called 'burden of proof'. Normally the person making an affirmative statement is required to support that statement your affirmitive statement was that 500 buses could safely evacuate 20,000 people. you even mentioned that they could have done as late as 9pm sunday, which i told you was ridiculous.
You have said over and over again that evacuation buses would cause there to still be traffic when the storm hit. you have said over and over that there was no traffic on the highways by the time it would have been unsafe to drive on them. i'm asking for a source saying when the highways were clear -- and you have failed to substantiate it.
Well, that's a good idea. I bet you have others, too. i should be the head of fema or something.
Seriously, I am interested in what better solutions there might have been--including those that don't involve driving people out of the city. and they did some of that, didn't they? you're examining this all in retrospect, and then picking on state and local officials for not foreseeing what we know now. the plan was to use the buses to ferry people to higher ground in the city, to shelters. that's what they did. it was a good idea. but it doesn't work without timely federal assistance.
And it could get this discussion back on track That could be more interest than having to remind you every single time that you are building strawmen and begging the question. I don't think I'm ever going to hear a justification for that. or proof that i'm building strawmen.
quote: now, i read that as you saying that there was a window of opportunity. that's why asked: "you're saying you want people to be out driving when the roads are closed due to an impending disaster?" if this was NOT your case, you should have said so. instead, you wrote:
quote: still seeming to be saying that the buses could have left after the traffic cleared and STILL made it. that point is, of course, ridiculous. that's the one i'm arguing. if it's a strawman, it's because you did not clarify when i asked you to.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: Right. And I did the math based on the number of buses making an assumption about seating capacity. You said that it wouldn't work because the roads would be clogged. That was an affirmative assumption you have not supported.
quote: Except it's not ridiculous because you can easily outdrive a hurricane and that far out road conditions are tenable. Further, the fact that there were no cars on the road is evidence that everybody had had plenty of time to get out. That means that if the buses had left earlier, there is no reason to think that they would somehow "clog the roads" like you insist they would, again, without justification. By the way, saying some is "ridiculous" over and over again does not support an argument. You're boring me.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1372 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
If you called them up 24-48 hours before the major catastrophe. What was Katrina's strength 48 hours before landfall? gov. blanco declared a state of emergency on august 26th. that's more than 24-48 hrs.
Second of all, you have forgotten that prepositioning assets in the disaster area before the disaster endangers those assets. I don't see how sending in the guard beforehand would be more ethical than forcing police and paramedics to go into the mandatory evacuation zone at the height of the storm. see? here is me preventing a strawman by clarifying a misunderstanding. "that's not what i meant." it's pretty easy. i'm not saying send in the guard before. i'm saying get them ready to be sent in immediately afterwards. collect them in a safe area otuside the cone of improbability. it's not a long trip from, say, jacksonville or tally to nola. less than a day, including hitting the rush hour in mobile (comparable to debris clearing on an otherwise empty road, i think).
I think it's obvious that the Guard could've gotten in prior to the storm, were it possible to do so on such short notice *and* considered a wise and ethical use of resources. oh, they certainly could have. for a long time, the incoming roads were empty. but i'm saying that if they can't get in just after, 500 buses couldn't get out just before. and 500 buses could have gotten out just before, couldn't they? so why can't the nation guard get in? they're not scared bus drivers with passengers who are freaking out. they don't have to contend with water and wind. they have tanks and helicopters amd big convoys. we have the most impressive military in the world -- which i think qualifies them for an efficient roadtrip, moreso than 500 busdrivers with 20,000 passengers. basically, i'm only saying that there's no excuse you can make for them, if you're arguing that these lowly city personal could have done better.
quote: I have to agree. that's all i'm asking for. just a little understanding of how shit goes wrong in extenuating circumstances.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1372 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
That means that if the buses had left earlier, there is no reason to think that they would somehow "clog the roads" like you insist they would, again, without justification. ok, i agree to that point. but it's still a retrospective position. the plan at the time was to seek the closest high ground they could find. and the superdome was the biggest shelter. that's been the plan for years. if there's a NEXT TIME (and i hope there's not) maybe they'll do something different. but you can't really fault them for executing the official plan flawlessly, and not foreseeing the potential faults in the official plan, like the reliance on the federal government for speedy assistance.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: But she did not ask for Federal troops until that Wednesday. As was already established, standard procedure is for the governor to ask the president to dispatch troops. By the way, this is 11 PM Aug 26 advisory for Hurricane Katrina
quote: So it's going to be an "intense" hurricane (4 or higher) and it's forecast to hit Louisiana but that's days away. Last year there was a similar scare for New Orleans with Ivan and nothing came of it. Lili did the same thing before that. Georges did it. So, are you going to mobilize tens of thousands of national guardsmen every time a hurricane enters the gulf? And how are you going to decide where to send the Guard three days before landfall? This message has been edited by gene90, 09-15-2005 12:13 AM
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: In that case, I think we are "mostly" in agreement, since that what most of this has been about.
quote: That's fair, but I think it applies to local, State, and Federal agencies.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1372 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
missed this one.
Right. And it took five days after Andrew, but FEMA was moving into place within three days after the storm. monday, tuesday, wednessday, thursday -- that's four. but you wanna know my serious opinion? fema botched andrew. feam botched frances, too. it's a pretty good history here.
Reality: the Federal government moves like molasses. sadly, you are absolutely right. the federal gov't DOES move like molasses. in winter. (uphill) but that's the problem we're talking about here, isn't it? how slow the federal gov't is. especially after four years of talking about preparedness for disaster and threats to our infrastructure. it shaved all of a DAY off the time, didn't it?
quote: Yeah, to clean up Nagin's mess. And it took a while to do that because he left such a mess. when the governor write to the president and say that the situation excedes the capabilities of state and local government, and asks the president to intervene by declaring a state of emergency -- and the presidnet DOES declare a state of emergency -- it is not the MAYOR'S fault for what happens. it is the president's. period. from that point, it is the president's responsibility to coordinate all federal, state, and local agencies involved in handling the disaster. that means fema, the dhs, the dod, the national guard (even if it is non-nationalized), etc. these agencies are designed to take over when the state and local government fails. if damage happens because THOSE agencies fail to act, it is not the local government's fault for not being to handle the situation they wrote to the feds for help about in the first place.
Now, are you trying to tell me that it would be safer in the Superdome than to try to evacuate? no, i'm trying to say that that was the plan for the people who could no evacuate on their own. the people who could evacuate probably did. for the people that could not evacuate on their own, the plan was to try to help as MANY as possible by ferryign them to the stadium. in RETROSPECT just taking them out of the city would have been better.
And finally, I note that there was not still traffic on the exit routes when the hurricane struck. again, source please?
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
arachnophilia Member (Idle past 1372 days) Posts: 9069 From: god's waiting room Joined: |
quote:But she did not ask for Federal troops until that Wednesday. As was already established, standard procedure is for the governor to ask the president to dispatch troops. i think you answer your own question:
So, are you going to mobilize tens of thousands of national guardsmen every time a hurricane enters the gulf? And how are you going to decide where to send the Guard three days before landfall? the national guard, in my opinion, had an appropriate response time. they were on the ground pretty fast. that might be more than crash is saying, but that's what i think. fema, and the dhs did not. the fact that i think is most damning is that WALMART had a better response time than our government. and i'm fairly certain walmart is run by the devil himself. This message has been edited by arachnophilia, 09-15-2005 12:23 AM
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||
gene90 Member (Idle past 3851 days) Posts: 1610 Joined: |
quote: Right. I may be on the other side of the political spectrum but I agree that there are some problems here. There needs a bipartisan investigation of this for one. I don't even like the look of the President being in complete control of whatever inquiry there is going to be.
quote: I don't have one that will suffice, I'm simply remembering the news coverage (FOX, CNN, and State public radio, which was going into disaster mode). I believe that was coverage from CNN, but I realize it isn't sufficient. Apologies then for using it.
|
|
|
Do Nothing Button
Copyright 2001-2023 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved
Version 4.2
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2024