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Author | Topic: Counter-Intuitive Science | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
or one that can travel directly upwind, powered by wind.
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined:
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that liquid helium flows uphill out of a beaker
Chemistry | HowStuffWorks
quote: Enjoy by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click) |
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
That there are no green stars even though there is green light in their spectrum. there is a green blob ... or is it the green goblin? Science | AAAS Enjoy by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
if you are bicycling and come to a stop light that senses vehicles, you can trip the sensor by laying your bike down over the sensor area (usually visible as a rectangle in the pavement) because they use electrical inductance, which falls off with distance squared ...
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Perhaps the sensor was turned down (to prevent the door opening for dogs etc), and it probably used an average over a set time period usually taken to walk along the sensor area (to eliminate people walking across the sensor area tripping the door).
That's my guess, as it would eliminate light weight and short impacts of momentum. enjoy. by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Yes, I remember it, because I was among those who were wrong at the beginning.
Simply put, the contestant will be wrong 2/3rds of the time, and the host will obligingly eliminate the other wrong choice. Enjoy. by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
add this picture then (worth a thousand goats)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
I think I agree with Panda: how does the host not knowing the answer change this picture:
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Hi slevesque,
A third of the time, he opens a goat and you chose the car. (Sit.A) You win if you don't change and lose if you do.
A third of the time, he opens a goat and you chose a goat (Sit.B) You lose if you don't change and win if you do.
A third of the time, he opens a car and you chose a goat (Sit.C) You lose if you don't change and lose if you do (which may seem pointless unless you a filled with boundless optimism ...). ∑ 4 losing situations and 2 winning situations.
Since the presentator opens a goat, you know you are in situation A or B, and you know each situation is just as likely as the other (33% each), then you also know that since you are as likely to be in sit.A then B, then you are just as likely to have the car behind your door then behind the other door. Hence a 50/50 chance But you are forgetting to include the results of sit C in your calcs. Just because you see the car, it doesn't mean you don't lose. Enjoy. by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Sorry slevesque, I still do not agree.
I'm not forgetting to include sit.C, it's just that nothing worth of interest comes out of doing so. But it is of interest to me: it means there is a lose-lose case that cannot be omitted from the calculations of all the possibilities. Once the door is opened on the car, there is zero possibility of you winning. This is what changes the original results. Probability calculations are (properly) based on evaluation of the relative success of each and every one of the possibilities (this is why probability calculations cannot be made without knowing all the possibilities), so let's look at the possibilities (your initial pick is door 1, as per the original game analysis, but here the host randomly picks door 2 or door 3):
It appears that you have a 1/3 possibility of winning whether you switch or not (unless you want to win the goat). This is the way the game appears at first. Now it could be argued that in the original game the host eliminates Sit C1 and Sit C2, and this leaves you with a 50:50 chance ... what am I missing? Enjoy. Edited by RAZD, : added last P by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Hi slevesque,
One involves 3 plain cards with faces coloured red/red, red/green & green/green. Now if one card is chosen at random and placed on a table so that you can see one side (red say), what it the probability that the other side is also red?
2/3 ? Isn't this similar to your last version of the Monty game? Once you have a card on the table (with any one card being chosen 1/3rd of the time), there are only two cards that can have the face that is up (ie it cannot be the green/green card), and one of them the same on the bottom and the other is not: 50:50? Enjoy. by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Hi Panda
The thing to remember is that we are only interested in answering the question: "Should I swap or stay?" If Monty chooses the car, then the question is moot; the answer is neither "swap" nor "stay". Curiously, you do not walk away with the car. You still have the option to swap or stay, whether you have a possibility of winning or not. Enjoy. by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Hi Kaichos Man
RAZD, I assume you are referring to a yacht tacking. I hate to be pedantic but that isn't "directly" into the wind. However, it is pretty mindblowing that a wind-powered vessel can travel into the wind, directly or indirectly. Nope. A vessel with a propeller that is spun by the wind powers a propeller that drives the vessel directly upwind. Same principal as the vehicle going downwind faster than the wind. another idea | Boat Design NetPage Not Found Page Not Found quote: Enjoy. by our ability to understand Rebel American Zen Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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