What happens after the oil is gone?

I have been doing some research on globalization, world economies, mono-cropping, and the oil economy for an anthropology class and I thought I would ask some questions of people on this forum.Reading through the EUR reports and the IOEC and DOE reports along with university research using Hubbert models for oil peaks, I was wondering what concerns or positions you all had on the coming oil crisis (if there'll be a crisis, etc.)?It seems to me that we are headed for an industrial (pardon the pun ) sized crisis when oil stocks start declining. Many poeple do not realize how dependent our economy is on oil production. Working in my professors research lab I have come to realize that even most of the chemicals we use in the lab come from oil "cracker" plants. 50% of the energy used to mine for coal comes from oil, the electricity we depend on for "peak" usage comes from gas-turbine plants, to run our cars, trains, planes, ocean going vessels, military complex depends almost exclusively on oil, and our refining, manufacturing, fertilizer industries depend on oil.In the case that we do run out of oil, do you believe that humans will go extinct, revert to stone-age existence, or will science overcome all?If we do revert to a stone age existence what can we expect for the evolution of the human species? I am assuming that geographical isolation(limited migration?) will create opportunities for evolution? Or are we enough of a migrating, ie exploring type, species that isolation would be limited?I would like to talk about mono-cropping, third world debt, and globalization but I'll leave that for another time.

Ahh but the problem of the more expensive oil is that it is not as economically viable to extract it or just worthless. Right now we are running at about 5 barrels of oil produced per 1 barrel of oil invested in drilling and pumping. Estimates suggest that by 2005 that ratio will come close to 1 to 1. This just makes it economically unviable. You end up using the oil you just produced, a no-win situation. Even if oil reaches $500 a barrel, it doesn't make sense "energy wise" to recover.How much does ethanol replace our usage of oil? Can we switch over from an oil based economy to an ethanol based one? Remebr that our world population is increasing and our agricultural output peaked sometime in the early 80's. Our fisheries are in drastic decline or facing extinction so agriculture doesn't and will not have the output necessary to replace the oil production loss. We use oil as fertilizer as well, so what are we gaining by using the "food" we just produced to create more food? Its a net loss strategy. Without fertilizer we go from about 130 bushels per acre to 30 bushels.Current predictions are for an oil production peak somewhere around 2010, with optimistic estimates closer to 2020. This is not much time for us to "realise" other energy alternatives. Right now most other "clean" alternatives, if we use them all, would only produce about 30% of the energy needs of our economy. This doesn't include transportation. What about all the airlines, cars, and ocean going vessels? On this subject what can we expect of those emerging superpower-like nations such as China or India, who would like their economies to mirror the United states standard of living? Do you think that this world can afford a car for every Chinese or Indian? Do you think that they should "expect" such a life-style? What happens when those emerging economies lack the know-how to switch to other than an oil using economy?Claiming that running out of oil is a "non-issue" is to close our eyes to that big mack truck of a problem coming into our lane of the highway.

The problem with that scenario, at least right now, is that how do you think the hydrogen is "produced"? Thats right, oil powered electricity. Without the oil to produce the electricity, there is no production of hydrogen.

Even with a best case scenario, ie. 2020 "peak", is it possible to replace our oil economies with renewables?Back to the question. What future do we have as a species after oil, when population is expanding? When will the principles of Malthus kick in?{edited for content}[This message has been edited by DBlevins, 11-13-2003]

Of course an increase in energy costs reduces production. That was the point I was making. The problem with switching to ethanol is over-population. It isn't a viable alternative. Population even if everyone begins to have just one child per family will still continue to grow for a period of time, and THAT ain't happening. We can't feed the population we have now, much less one that relies on ethanol as a fuel alternative which would reduce available food. And my question still remains whether you "push-back" the oil peak or not. What happens when it is gone? It is a finite resource that isn't going to last us more than 30-50 years. What has our government done to conserve this resource in order to slow down the coming crisis and give us time to implement alternatives? The answer they give is to increase gas power plants, keep fuel standards the same or lower, increase SUV's.How long before we can increase the efficiency of the alternatives? Economically I just don't see it happening with alternatives right now. They just are not environmentally/economically viable.You may say that, ooh but we have plenty of options, but I am not sure that you have actually looked at the data. Those alternatives are not economically viable right now, and at our present rate of consumption we don't have time to increase their efficiency before the oil market "goes postal."

I thought I would add some links for people to peruse should they feel inclined. World Energy Crisis
nice site with proposal for sofetning the impact of an oil crisis.http://www.oilcrisis.com/bartlett/
has some good links to debates on the oil crisis.DieOff -
nice site with excellent links at bottom of page.http://orc.pennnet.com/articles/print_toc.cfm?volume=2001...
oil&Gas online research site. List of countries and oil production.The issue is not if but when...

Well, I am not sure if I should be surprised at the lack of foresight with regards to the oil crisis. It's not like it is much talked about it on television, or other mass media. I wonder what problem you think is bigger than this crisis? I am unaware of any world problem that is coming this close to disaster as is the oil crisis and I believe that it is coming a lot faster than people had suspected.

The question I'd like to ask is where do poeple think our future is headed? Whatever problem that you believe faces us in the near future, what direction are we headed as a species? Will we fall under one of the Malthusian principles? If we don't become extinct as a species, what do you believe will happen to us? Speculation is cheap and I thought it would be interesting to see in what direction people see us moving into? WIll we move back into a stone-age existence or are we so caught up in our lifestyles now that we kick the bucket?I am tempted to see us revert to a stone-age existence, with the slight chance that once population stabilizes we undergo some form of re-industrialization, either using coal or some other "surprise" means. I have faith in our ingenuity, but only when our population is at a stable level.I wonder how many poeple have the knowledge to survive without electricity? If you do survive, what areas are rich in game or farmland? How would you get to this area? If you find such a resource will you know how to grow or catch the food necessary? Will others find your resource worth fighting over? Will you share or will they share the resource? Will you be able to kill them if not?I think those questions are worth thinking about. It may not happen within 5 years but I believe it is closer than the average person suspects.