Now, if all we consider is the fact of creation (rather than the nature of that creation--problematical to say the least), there is no reason to choose either option 1 or option 2. We might as well flip a coin. The odds are 50/50.
The odds of being correct about God's existence (supposing you randomly selected your belief, which I don't think anyone does) may be 50/50, but that certainly doesn't show that there's a 50% chance of God existing. Either God exists, or doesn't: I'll give you that. However, given that there's no reason to assert either (God exists or God does not exist), there's no reason to assign equal probabilities (or any probabilities, really) to either event. It's incalculable.
Now... Back to the argument...
There are 2, and only 2, possibilities for the origin of the universe:
1. it was created by an eternal Being
2. The universe has always existed in some form
All other possibilites can be reduced to these two. A Pagan-style God, for example, a God that arose from nature, would reduce to option #2. Such a God would be logically unnecessary. It we say that perhaps the universe came into existence as a result of some other universe, that also reduces to #2. The options are Nature (an eternal thing) or a god (an eternal being).
Another possibility is a necessary God who did not create the universe.
Another possibility is a universe that was created by a God that no longer exists.
As others have pointed out, a third possibility is that the universe simply exists and did not exist eternally. Correct me if I'm wrong, but electrons and positrons "poof" in and out of existence all the time with no apparent cause.
I would also argue that the notion of cause and effect is time dependent, so creation (causing the universe to exist) would require time, which in of itself is a property of the universe. My head is spinning, so I'll stop here. Your argument has been demonstrated to be fallacious though, it seems.