ok
A, your 50/50 odds are wrong as you have no measure of how likley 1. is compared to 2. it may be eternal beings are very comman , so our universe could have been created by one of a zillions different eternal beings floating in the what ever .. may be all universes as so created then your odds are 100/0 .. or may be there are no eternal beings then your odds are 0/100
you say in number 2. the universe has always existed .. how would you measuer this .. existance is a term about time , but time is a very odd thing dimetionally speaking and you can come up with so odd models of how thing could happen .. which can lead to the question is there a always for the universe to have exsisted in ??
and if you add the .." in some form " .. how far from the current state of the universe will you go and still claim it to be the same thing ?? ... ie if the universe collasped or was reduced into nothing .....say by a intelligent race finding a way to destroy it ??????