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Author Topic:   Age Correlations and an Old Earth: Version 1 No 3 (formerly Part III)
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 46 of 357 (347121)
09-06-2006 8:51 PM
Reply to: Message 45 by Hughes
09-06-2006 12:39 PM


and Time to Run ...
Not possible.
In other words you have a closed mind.
You are unwilling to even consider the validity of 10,000 years of age marked by tree rings in two differrent species on opposite sides of the earth, it's too dangerous to your worldview, one best described as fantasy. When confronted with the reality you claim
Not possible.
You raised the issue, but when confronted with the evidence and asked to deal with it you say
Not possible.
When faced with evidence that counters your pet fantasy you run from it.
Enjoy.
Edited by RAZD, : toyp

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This message is a reply to:
 Message 45 by Hughes, posted 09-06-2006 12:39 PM Hughes has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 47 by Hughes, posted 09-06-2006 9:56 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 48 of 357 (347150)
09-06-2006 10:44 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by Hughes
09-06-2006 9:56 PM


oh stop complaining and deal with it
Your continued characterization that my position as fantasy, and that I lose, or am running from the evidence is not even close to being true.
There is one simple way to disabuse me of this impression: deal with the issue.
Do you agree or not that tree rings count actual annual layers of years that are the result of the earth's orbit around the sun -- that the tree rings correlate with the annual orbits?
(note: we don't need an exact correlation to calibrate the tree ring chronology -- it can be valid for 10,000 years +/- 5% say -- if that makes you more comfortable, after all good calibration identifies and quantifies sources of error eh?)
If not, why and by what evidence -- support your position.
If you agree we'll move on to the next issue.
Stop shuckin and jivin and deal with the issue.
Demonstrate that my impression is wrong.
Enjoy.

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This message is a reply to:
 Message 47 by Hughes, posted 09-06-2006 9:56 PM Hughes has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 49 of 357 (363246)
11-11-2006 3:47 PM


bump for Tranquility Base
From Message 32 Tranquility Base asserts
I mentioned the varves or micro-layers of Mt St Helens to demonstrate that they can form rapidly.
I can't help but notice that you failed to attempt to discuss the tree ring information, ...
... or the in fact annual varve layers of Lake Suigetsu (which are formed by an entirely different process than the micro-layers of Mt St Helen), ...
... prefering to restate your straw man position that is unrelated to actual dating methods actually used by actual scientists.
From this I assume that this is the best information you have, and it is insufficient to disprove the ages measured by these systems:
Age Correlations and an Old Earth: Version 1 No 3 (formerly Part III)
quote:
... the minimum age of the earth is:
  • 8,000 years by annual tree rings from Bristlecone pine in California.
  • 10,000 years by annual tree rings from Oaks in Europe (different environment and location)
  • 45,000 years by annual varve layers of diatoms in Lake Suigetsu, Japan (different biology and location)
  • ... corroborated by Carbon 14 (C-14) radiometric dating (limit 50,000 years by half life)

And that is just for starters.
THIS is the thread to discuss this issue -- if you care to back up your assertions.
I also notice that YOU asked if there was a dendrochronology thread, and that until you address them here you are avoiding addressing the issue YOU raised.
Enjoy.

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 50 of 357 (367425)
12-02-2006 8:56 AM


Bump for Confidence
In replying to Message 1, my post, Message 12, quoted material that also addressed misuse of radiocarbon dating to date diamonds:
quote:
...
Humphreys also discussed how he and his fellow creation scientists have been finding radiocarbon in diamonds, regarded as far too old (billions of years) to have any amount of fast-decaying radiocarbon left in them. In this regard, I had contacted Dr. R. E. Taylor, of the Department of Anthropology at University of California, Riverside, and the Keck Laboratory for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry at University of California, Irvine. Taylor is a serious radiometrics scientist. Like Humphreys, he also looks for radiocarbon in diamonds, but Taylor does so as a way to monitor instrument background and noise. Diamonds are so old, they shouldn't have any residual radiocarbon (C14 decays with a half-life of under 6,000 years), and indeed, they don't. So diamonds are as close to a carbon-containing C14 "blank" as scientifically possible.
The abstract that got me talking to Taylor is called "Use of Natural Diamonds to Monitor Radiocarbon AMS Instrument Backgrounds." I contacted Dr. Taylor late last year, and inquired about the creationist group's misuse of radiocarbon methods.
On October 18th, 2005, Dr. Taylor replied (with his permission to cite) that
My take on their problem is that they [RATE creationists] apparently have little or no understanding of operational details involved in AMS technology and the nature of how ion sources and AMS spectrometers work since, as far as I know, none of these people have any direct research experience in this field. They are thus not aware of the many potential sources of trace amounts of radiocarbon in the blanks and how a detector can register the presence of a few mass 14 events that are not radiocarbon.
Regards, Ervin Taylor
When creationists crow about radiocarbon in diamonds proving that the diamonds are only thousands of years old, you can remind them that they're just measuring noise in an atomic mass spectrometer!
It would appear that your source is ignoring evidence that contradicts his precepts. That is not science, it is delusion.
Confidence replied with Message 39:
They are thus not aware of the many potential sources of trace amounts of radiocarbon in the blanks and how a detector can register the presence of a few mass 14 events that are not radiocarbon.
quote:
In each case, with contamination eliminated, the result has been in the thousands of years, i.e. C-14 was present when it ”shouldn’t have been’...
...This is exceptionally striking evidence, because a diamond has remarkably powerful lattice bonds, so there is no way that subsequent biological contamination can be expected to find its way into the interior...
...Labelling this detectable C-14 with such words as ”contamination’ and ”background’ is completely unhelpful in explaining its source, as the RATE group’s careful analyses and discussions have shown...
http://www.answersingenesis.org/docs2003/0821rate.asp
And my response was Message 47:
I looked over the article, but could find absolutely no reference to the methodology used or the criteria applied to eliminate contamination.
The closest I could find was:
quote:
C-14 labs have no real answer to this problem, namely that all the ”vast-age’ specimens they measure still have C-14. Labelling this detectable C-14 with such words as ”contamination’ and ”background’ is completely unhelpful in explaining its source, as the RATE group’s careful analyses and discussions have shown.
And in under "references and notes":
quote:
2. Even with the most sensitive AMS techniques used today, nary an atom of C-14 should be present after 250,000 years.
This last statement is false, on two levels. First, the amount of 14C in a specimen does not depend on the method of measurement -- it is there or it isn't. Second, radioactive decay does not eliminate ALL radioactive elements by decay, no matter what the half life is there is always the possibility of some remaining in a sample. It is more likely that such small levels will be detected with more advanced and sensitive instruments. This of course is one of the sources of the background radiation levels that they say they have eliminated in the first statement.
Of course dismissing the evidence of contamination and background as being "completely unhelpful in explaining its source" does not mean that this has been SHOWN to be the case, they are just denying the evidence that contradicts their position.
The kicker is when they state "as the RATE group’s careful analyses and discussions have shown" ... and don't give a single reference. Not one. Could it be that they are making a bare unsupported assertion while using KNOWN cases of contamination to INTENTIONALLY provide false samples?
quote:
The bottom line is that virtually all biological specimens, no matter how ”old’ they are supposed to be, show measurable C-14 levels.3 This effectively limits the age of all buried biota to less than (at most) 250,000 years.
Interestingly, specimens which appear to definitely be pre-Flood seem to have C-14 present, too, and importantly, these cluster around a lower relative amount of C-14.
This too is a false statement: 14C dating is only good for samples less than 50,000 years. Anything older than that is misuse of the dating method -- and likely intentionally by Baumgardner et al -- because (could it be?) that is where background levels and contamination are KNOWN to make the results unreliable.
"reference 3" is Baumgardner, J. et al., Measurable 14C in fossilized organic materials: confirming the young earth creation-flood model available in PDF at
Error | The Institute for Creation Research
quote:
14C/C ratios from all but the youngest Phanerozoic samples appear to be clustered in the range 0.1-0.5 pmc (percent modern carbon), regardless of geological ”age.’
And "fossilized organic material" is by definition contaminated:
quote:
fos”sil”ize”- verb, -ized, -iz”ing.
1. Geology. to convert into a fossil; replace organic with mineral substances in the remains of an organism.
But there is one more issue to deal with in this "paper" ...
quote:
... because a diamond has remarkably powerful lattice bonds, so there is no way that subsequent biological contamination can be expected to find its way into the interior.
The issue of contamination is not just biological contamination - that is a straw man fallacy. Contamination can also come from non-organic sources, and it can also be radioactive. The easiest way to contaminate samples for 14C testing is to subject them to radiation that reconverts 14N to 14C and thus results in false elevated levels of 14C for detection.
Curiously the false young dates for ancient coals and oil is directly related to radioactive contamination and not related to geological age of the sample -- thus indicating a high correlation with radioactive contamination.
Carbon-14 in Coal Deposits
quote:
The 14C in coal is probably produced de novo by radioactive decay of the uranium-thorium isotope series that is naturally found in rocks (and which is found in varying concentrations in different rocks, hence the variation in 14C content in different coals). Research is ongoing at this very moment.
It turns out that the origin and concentration of 14C in fossil fuels is important to the physics community because of its relevance for detection of solar neutrinos.
So, the physics community has gotten interested in finding out whether and why fossil fuels have native radioactivity. The aim is to find fossil fuels that have a 14C/C ratio of 10^-20 or less; below that, neutrino activity can be reliably detected.
In the course of this work, they've discovered that fossil fuels vary widely in 14C content. Some have no detectable 14C; some have quite a lot of 14C. Apparently it correlates best with the content of the natural radioactivity of the rocks surrounding the fossil fuels, particularly the neutron- and alpha-particle-emitting isotopes of the uranium-thorium series. Dr. Gove and his colleagues told me they think the evidence so far demonstrates that 14C in coal and other fossil fuels is derived entirely from new production of 14C by local radioactive decay of the uranium-thorium series. Many studies verify that coals vary widely in uranium-thorium content, and that this can result in inflated content of certain isotopes relevant to radiometric dating (see abstracts below). I now understand why fossil fuels are not routinely used in radiometric dating!
Unless of course you WANT false results ... then you go LOOKING for radioactive contamination of fossils.
This demonstrates that the opening statement on radiocarbon dating in the "RATE" article is and outright falsehood:
quote:
It’s long been known that radiocarbon (which should disappear in only a few tens of thousands of years at the most2) keeps popping up reliably in samples (like coal, oil, gas, etc.) which are supposed to be ”millions of years’ old.
Not just because of the errors listed previously but because the sources they are intentionally using for samples are those specifically listed that are known to be contaminated by radioactivity from other sources.
Curiously the issue of 14C dating has nothing to do with starlight and fantasy models of a universe and it's effect on explaining the astronomical age of the universe and the earth.
What it does show is that Humphreys ... and Baumgardner and others ... are not interested in eliminating sources of errors to develop scientific conclusions, but in actually using known sources of errors to create false impressions for gullible people.
Meanwhile the evidence of annual layers still shows the world is older than any YEC model I know of.
Message 40
Many claims that Humphrey is not a real scientist are not founded on good arguments.
quote:
What part about the argument from authority being a logical fallacy DO you understand? A blind man shooting at a target will occasionally hit a bull's eye but that does not make him a marksman.
The claims that Humphrey's work is not valid science is based on evaluation of that work by scientists that show where, how and why it is wrong. Those are the GOOD arguments.
and btw, some of the best writers of Science Fiction are scientists.
Where I noted that I could not find any information on how they had eliminated background radiation and contamination levels, just the assertion that they had done so.
Confidence responded with Message 51:
It is true that they do not give to many clues on where and how they got those results. I will continue looking for now, your references are helpful though.
My latest response, Message 52, is to direct this discussion to this thread:
Reply should be on
Thread Age Correlations and an Old Earth: Part III
As that thread deals specifically with age dating methods, and discusses Radiocarbon as it corroborates other systems.
Of particular note is that the effect of climate on carbon 14 dating is also matched by the effect of climate on the annual layer systems, and that any criticism of carbon dating needs to address how this correlation occurs.
Thus I have transfered the arguments to this post for continued discussions.
It should be noted that the constraints on radiocarbon dating include
  • the sample must come from an uncontaminated organic source (so any sample with intruded mineral or other material, as in partly fossilized, or any sample subject to radiation, is of questionable value),
  • the sample must come from an organism that acquired its carbon from atmospheric carbon (either plant material or consumers of plant material or consumers of consumers of plant material that used atmospheric CO2 and other gases that can include the atmospheric altered Nitrogen 14 to Carbon 14),
  • it is incumbent on the sample collector to ensure that these conditions are met, and not on the testing lab, and
  • the maximum age that can be detected with repeatable reliability is 50,000 years (after that the sample size of remaining 14C is so small as to be highly variable due to the probabilities of radioactive decay, and it is near the level of normal background radiation that causes false positives)
There are known sources of non-atmospheric carbon - marine organisms that use or reuse old carbon (shellfish, consumers of shellfish, etc), called the "resevoir effect" - and there are known sources of radioactivity contaminated oils and coals and the like.
Thus it is easy for an unscrupulous sample collector to achieve false results by intentionally collecting bad samples, and at least ONE indicator that someone is intentionally misusing the dating method is if they cite dates beyond the capability of the method.
Enjoy.

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Replies to this message:
 Message 51 by Confidence, posted 12-08-2006 1:04 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 55 of 357 (368554)
12-08-2006 7:18 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by Confidence
12-08-2006 1:04 PM


Reply for Confidence
Thanks for the reply, Confidence.
As you will already have noted there is a substantial need to not just critique 14C dating, but why all the various dating methods correlate so well. We can come back to this issue later, but first let me say that these involve several different annual layer systems, several radioactive systems and one astronomical system that all give data consistent with the rest of the data -- in spite of being three entirely different mathematical trends (linear, radioactive decay and planetary rotational decay) and that the annual layer systems also capture climate information that is also consistent between them.
This gives a very high degree of reliability to the ages measured by these systems, ages much in excess of 6,000 years by any count.
So when Creationists find c-14, the first thing evolutionist do is ridicule them for trying carbon dating on something they think is so old.
That they have such a high degree of reliability on the age of these things goes far further than just thinking up how old things are, it is a well measured and deliberated, discussed and dissected age that we are talking about.
And where the reliablity is low, due to any number of factors, scientists are happy to note "age - indeterminate" and say "we don't know" rather than post some arbitrary date.
So, is this contamination?
quote:
when tested by highly sensitive accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) methods, organic samples from every portion of the fossil record show detectable amounts of 14C!
Can you absolutely guarantee that there has been absolutely no contamination by current modern air-born 14C in any of those samples?
Can you absolutely guarantee that there was no contact with other contaminated material?
Or is it reasonable to say that below a certain level we just cannot guarantee that a sample won't show some contamination from being handled, and say below this level we cannot measure with any accuracy?
The fact that this limit -- 45,000 to 50,000 years -- is STILL far older than any YEC scenario should mean that this is not what the real problem is for YEC's creatortionistas (those who intentionally distort the truth).
When done with proper scientific controls the ages measured by 14C are sufficiently consistent from the present through to 50,000 years ago to render critiques like the ones by the 'RATE' group to be insignificant.
If they vary wildly after that, it still does not invalidate ages up to 50,000 years ago, does it?
Age is also usually measured by at least two different methods, to ensure contamination is not involved or some other anomaly (like the resevoir problems), and both ages are usually reported for comparisons. When you get two consistent ages you have reliable data, and when you get two inconsistent ages you have unreliable data.
The 'RATE' group looks for unreliable data to evaluate: that is not honest science. All they prove is that they have found a specific set of unreliable data, but that does nothing to invalidate those cases where the data IS reliable.
One thing the 'RATE' group has NOT been able to do is collect samples that date anomolously by two different methods to the same anomolous young or old age: when they can do that - have a two to one advantage - then and only then will their claim of eliminating contamination and background radiation have some relevance.
So, is this contamination?
quote:
Some of the researchers tried to explain this carbon 14 as contamination, but none of their attempts to clean it were successful.
I still only see denial of contamination and background radiation and not evidence to the contrary.
As noted by Percy in Message 53 and Coragyps in Message 54 there is ample sources for radioactive contamination in diamonds, both from 13C being converted to 14C by neutron accumulation or by 14N being reconverted to 14C in a manner similar to how it is converted in the atmosphere.
As noted in previous discussions regarding coal and 14C, there is also a high degree of correlation of anomalous high 14C content with radioactivity and none with age once past 50,000 years.
BUT: the end argument is that age measured out to 50,000 years by 14C is an accurate and dependable method when done correctly and with the proper sample controls and with the constraints on 14C noted (and quoted by you).
This age alone is enough to refute a YEC model of the earth: falsifying it at 51,000 years does you no good.
If you don't believe me then start at the beginning of this thread, Message 1, and walk through the tree rings and the climate information, through Lake Suigetsu and into the 14C correlations, and then ask again.
Enjoy.

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This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by Confidence, posted 12-08-2006 1:04 PM Confidence has not replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 56 of 357 (368563)
12-08-2006 7:59 PM
Reply to: Message 54 by Coragyps
12-08-2006 4:24 PM


Proportions of 12C, 13C and 14C in the atmosphere
Carbon 13 makes up 1.1% of carbon on Earth,
And something like one in a trillion atmospheric carbon atoms are carbon-14, so the beginning amount of 14C in any organism is very very small, much less than 13C and much much less than 12C.
And after 57,300 years (10 half-lives) it is reduced by decay to (1/2)^10 = 0.001 or 0.1% of that original amount.
When do you reach the point where +/- one atom makes a big difference in the measured age eh?
And how easy is it for one nitrogen atom or one 13C atom being converted to 14C to make a big difference in the measured age when you get to that point?
Thanks.
Edited by RAZD, : changed subtitle

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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 60 of 357 (368577)
12-08-2006 9:52 PM
Reply to: Message 59 by johnfolton
12-08-2006 9:47 PM


contamination cannot trump correlations
hello again, whatever.
contamination cannot trump correlations because it cannot explain the correlations -- why they exist instead of random numbers.
Enjoy.

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This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 61 by johnfolton, posted 12-09-2006 12:16 AM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 63 of 357 (368624)
12-09-2006 8:53 AM
Reply to: Message 61 by johnfolton
12-09-2006 12:16 AM


contamination still doesn't trump correlations
I agree in advance that the colloids clays formed by humics acids likely would slow (plugged)slowing the C14 and other gases migration upwards, causing values of the correlations to be inflated downward proportionally with non-random numbers.
This has been refuted before Charley, Bret, Craig, johnfolton, tim, tom, The Golfer, ... whatever (did you get a medal for the most user names yet?).
You still need to deal with the clay layers being annual layers that give the same ages as the biological samples: thus positing contamination of one does not refute the result of the other and the correlation between them - what it shows is that contamination is NOT an issue.
The data from the lake also correlates with other data for age and climate, both in the tree rings and in the ice layers. How can it do that with contamination in one system being the answer? How can they all be wrong in exactly the same way, time and amount?
Maybe it's time you looked further than Lake Suigetsu, seeing as you seem to have a hang-up here. Look at the layers from the ice cores - north, south and inbetween.
Start with the low latitude ice cores are from the Peruvian altiplano, a high plateau ranging in altitude from 3500 to over 4000 meters above sea level. Rising over it is the Quelccaya ice cap with a summit elevation of 5670 m and a maximum summit thickness of 164 m.
Paleoclimatology | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
This is a slide showing the marked bands on the ice in South America, alternating dust layers with ice layers:
Paleoclimatology | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
From the slide description:
quote:
The Quelccaya cap terminates abruptly and spectacularly in a 55 m ice cliff. The annual accumulation layers clearly visible in the photograph are an average of .75 m thick. While snow can fall during any season on the altiplano, most of it (80-90%) arrives between the months of November and April. The distinct seasonality of precipitation at Quelccaya results in the deposition of the dry season dust bands seen in the ice cliff. These layers are extremely useful to the paleoclimatologist because they allow ice core records to be dated very accurately using visual stratigraphyy, which is simply the visual identification of annual dust layers in ice records (in most ice cores, annual layers become indistinct at depth, forcing paleoclimatologists to rely on less-accurate ice-flow models to establish chronologies; at Quelccaya, on the other hand, annual layers are visible throughout the core).
Quotes from later slides:
quote:
When scientists drill into the ice cap, they recover what are essentially fossil pieces of ice containing crucial information about past climate.
hree deep core sections (from 122m, 130m, and 139m) show distinct annual bands produced by the deposition of dust during the dry season (dry season dust layers are represented by triangles). While annual bands provide accurate relative dating (the age of each ice band is known to be a year apart from directly adjacent bands), paleoclimatologists also search for absolute dates within a core chronology. The surface of the ice cap provides one absolute date. For example, the top layer of a core drilled in 1983 is known to date from 1983; scientists can then date deeper layers relative to the surface. Scientists also attempt to locate absolute dates deeper in the core to improve the accuracy of the chronology. At Quelccaya, for instance, a thick layer of volcanic ash was found in a layer initially dated at 1598. Looking into historical records of colonial Peru, paleoclimatologists found that a massive eruption of the volcano Huaynaputina had occurred in 1600. Using the absolute date of 1600 for this layer, they were able to revise their chronology and improve its accuracy.
One of the most salient features in the last millennium of climate history is the Little Ice Age, a loosely-defined period of cold temperatures and increased climatic variability that has been documented in many parts of the globe.* As this figure shows, the Little Ice Age is identified in the Quelccaya climate record as a period of 'colder' (more negative) d18O roughly bracketed between 1550 A.D. and 1900 A.D.
These cores don't extend to the time of the tree ring data, but they correlate with the climates in those rings, specifically with "the little ice age," and they also correlate with the climates in the other two ice core data fields.
The next ice core is from the Dunde Ice cap in tibet
Paleoclimatology | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
quote:
For over 40,000 years, snow has been piling up on this 60 km2 ice cap deep in China's sparsely inhabited interior.
After hauling their equipment to 5325 m above sea level, scientists set up a small gas-powered drill. While there are minor variations in drilling technology and techniques, all drills use the same basic idea: a drill bit is lowered into the core hole and cuts out a cylinder of ice that is then carefully extracted from the core sleeve and analyzed both on site and in the laboratory. Since Quelccaya is at the edge of the moist Amazon Basin while Dunde is wedged between two deserts, it is not surprising that accumulation rates are much higher at Quelccaya. Indeed, the annual average accumulation at Quelccaya in meters of water equivalent is 1.15 m compared to just .43 m at Dunde. Like Quelccaya, around 80% of Dunde's precipitation falls during the wet season. The dry season is clearly identified in the core record by the layers of dust from surrounding deserts visible in this ice segment.
While Quelccaya provides high-resolution clues to the last 1500 years of climate, Dunde stretches back over 40,000 years, well into the last ice age.
The most prominent feature in the Dunde ice record is the transition between the last glacial maximum (in the Pleistocene epoch) and the present Holocene epoch.
And matching up to the dates for Lake Suigetsu ... and the climate pattern. They correlate age with climate, with ice, with clay & diatoms and leaves ....
Then go on to the two big core data sets:
  • Ice Cores in Greenland have annual layers going back 110,000 years.
  • Ice Cores in Antarctica have annual layers going back 650,000 years now (extended from the 422,776 years in the article above with new research).
They also correlate with the climate for Lake Suigetsu to match the ages due to annual layers there and the 14C data. Then they go on to much greater ages.
Enjoy.
Edited by RAZD, : added little ice age info, Dunde Ice core info

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This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by johnfolton, posted 12-09-2006 12:16 AM johnfolton has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 65 by johnfolton, posted 12-09-2006 6:49 PM RAZD has replied

RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 64 of 357 (368702)
12-09-2006 4:50 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by Confidence
12-08-2006 1:04 PM


The problem of background and contamination versus reliabilitiy of data
So, is this contamination?
Let's look at this from a slightly different perspective.
Radioactive decay is an exponential decay curve, not a constant rate over time.
The effect of contamination and background levels is an additive error - it can cause high readings, but not low readings, thus making things appear younger than they really are - but it adds the same error to any sample.
If we have two curves, one "clean" data and one "contaminated" data, they would look something like this (with the "contaminated" one above the "clean" data curve)
There is the same vertical displacement at any point between the curves, where the y-axis is the amount of 14C and the x-axis is the time for decay.
At t ~0 we have error = ~1/10 of clean data
At t ~1/2 we have error = ~1/3 of clean data
At t ~1 we have error = ~3/2 of clean data -- more error than clean data.
This delta between the curves is intentionally exaggerated here to make the point.
The point is that the error induced by contamination and background levels is low initially, so the age data result is reliable.
But certainly by the time you have reached point {1} above you have more error induced by the background radiation and contamination than you have available data, and the method is unreliable at that point because of that fact.
The point where the method becomes unreliable is based on the difference between the curves and the amount of error one is willing to put up with ... perhaps somewhere around 10% (using real delta curves not these exaggerated ones)
Does that make the issue a little clearer for you?
Enjoy
Edited by RAZD, : pasted rest of post, formating

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This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 1435 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 67 of 357 (368745)
12-09-2006 9:28 PM
Reply to: Message 65 by johnfolton
12-09-2006 6:49 PM


icing the cake?
You do have fun don't you?
Either you don't understand much relevant here or you are intentionally twisting this information for the fun of it.
I find this interesting as the glaciers melt the peat bogs in the northern most hemisphere area's of the globe are not dating hundreds of thousands of years old but carbon dating around 11,000-12,000 years ago.
The UCLA-Russian Academy of Sciences team found no peatland dates earlier than about 16,500 years ago, suggesting that no large northern peatland complex existed before that time.
Last time I checked 16,500 was not between 11,000 and 12,000 years.
http://www.esd.ornl.gov/projects/qen/nerc130k.html
quote:
After about 30,000 years ago, the Earth's climate system entered another big freeze-up; temperatures fell, deserts expanded and ice sheets spread across the northern latitudes much as they had done 70,000 years ago. This cold and arid phase which reached its most extreme point sometime around 21,000-17,000 years ago (18,000-15,000 radiocarbon years ago) is known as the Late Glacial Cold Stage (and is also sometimes called the Upper Pleniglacial).
The point at which the global ice extent was at its greatest, about 21,000 years ago (18,000 14C years ago) is known as the Last Glacial Maximum. The Last Glacial Maximum was much more arid than present almost everywhere, with desert and semi-desert occupying huge areas of the continents and forests shrunk back into refugia. But in fact, the greatest global aridity (rather than ice extent) may have been reached slightly after the Last Glacial Maximum, somewhere during the interval 19,000-17,000 years ago (17,000-15,000 14C years ago).
That doesn't make the peat dating problematic eh? The glacier scrapes the surface ahead of it, piling it into moraines, and when that Last Glacial Maximum retreated it allowed the peatland complex to invade the area left by the retreating glacier at that time.
Subsequent deposition of snow that becomes ice over those areas from snow-pack accumulation and the like would bury those peatland complexes without scraping them into moraines, as glacier movement would do.
And your article does not talk about the peatland complex forming earlier than had been previously thought but later:
quote:
In addition to pinpointing a new source of methane that helped end the ice age, the team's work has established a much earlier date for the formation of these bogs. Until a related discovery announced two years ago by the same researchers, scientists had thought that the northern peatlands did not start forming until 8,000 years ago. But the new research suggests that by that time, 50 percent of today's northern peatlands were already formed.
Are there 110,000 annual layers in the Greenland ice sheet?
More. Only 110 have been counted. From the original post on this thread:
http://www.gsf.fi/esf_holivar/johnsen.pdf
quote:
The climatic significance of the deeper part of the GISP2 ice core, below 2790 m depth and 110 kyr age, is a matter of considerable investigation and controversy. ... Ice in GISP2 below 2790 m depth is folded and tilted, and shows evidence of unconformities [ Gow et al., 1993]. The O of O in GISP2 above 2790 m matches almost perfectly with the Vostok record [ Sowers et al., 1993]; below that depth, it is far noisier and cannot be aligned with the smoothed Vostok signal [ Bender et al., 1994].
The antarctic ice is now dated\counted to 650,000 years.
And the climate data correlate between the two for the ages in discussion here.
Ice varves annual interpretation too like lake varves appear inflated only because the uniformitists belief in an old earth.
You are missing the point: it is the same age in both ice cores and in Lake Suigetsu and the same climate -- they correlate. They match. And by doing so they validate each other. Not matching would invalidate the concept.
Different entirely different annual layer counting systems, dependent on totally different processes for making the layers, getting the same ages and the same climate patterns.
You can't just hand wave "inflated" and "uniformitist" over this data and not explain why they have exactly the same apparent ages AND climates. That's not an explanation of the data but a denial that it contradicts your beliefs.
Denial of contradictory evidence is not faith, it is delusion:
quote:
delusion” -noun
1. an act or instance of deluding.
2. the state of being deluded.
3. a false belief or opinion: delusions of grandeur.
4. Psychiatry. a fixed false belief that is resistant to reason or confrontation with actual fact: a paranoid delusion.
If both system ages were due to errors those errors should be from different causes that would make different errors in the ages and climates. The ages AND the climates should not match if they were due to errors.
Enjoy.

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RAZD
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Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 69 of 357 (368825)
12-10-2006 2:14 PM
Reply to: Message 68 by Percy
12-10-2006 9:52 AM


Perspectives.
Isn't Whatever just successfully distracting attention from the topic of the thread?
Not as long as we keep coming back to the correlations.
While I think the details about lake varves and glaciers is interesting, ... Whatever is saying, in effect, "Lake varves have these dating problems, glaciers have these other dating problems," but he isn't addressing how these widely different dating problems (were they real) could affect things in identical ways such that the dates still correlate.
I'm not sure he understands (or chooses to understand) the basic difference between these systems of measurement.
He is essentially saying that 14C can diffuse up and distort the record. The problem is that this is a linear function, and can only distort another linear function by changing the slope.
The diatom\clay layering system is quasi-linear - the layers compress with age so each deeper layer is thinner for the same amount of annual deposition of clay and diatoms.
The 14C system is exponential decay - the amount lost each year is less than was lost the year before, being based on a fraction of the amount in existence each year.
What he needs to change is the straight line (from layers) to the curved line (from radioactive decay):
... in order to "explain" the age of the Lake Suigetsu data as showing ages that are much older than he wants it to be.
The Ice Core layering data is also quasi-linear - the layers compress with age so each deeper layer is thinner for the same amount of ice\annual accumulation.
Conversely the layers that measure the climate changes are NOT linear or curved -- they ARE a ratio between stable isotopes of 18O atoms and 16O atoms trapped in the ice when it was formed:
http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/mayews01/node2.html
quote:
The 18O value is determined from:
18O = 103ppt{(18O/16O)s - (18O/16O)std}/(18O/16O)std

where subscript s refers to sample, std refers to standard mean ocean water (SMOW), and ppt is parts per thousand.
Independent calibrations of the oxygen isotope-temperature relationship have been developed through the analysis of GISP2 borehole temperature, allowing conversion of isotope-derived surface-temperature histories to temperature-depth profiles [ Cuffey et al., 1992]. Thus it follows that variations with depth in the 18O of ice in a core reflect past variations of temperature with time at a study site.
(some conversion of text for readability)
So you have one quasi-linear system matching climate to a radioactive decay exponential curve and another entirely different quasi-linear system matching climate to a stable isotope ratio (essentially a flat curve with variations for temperature\climate), and BOTH give the same climate at the same age.
There is no "diffusion" of 14C in the Ice Core data. There is no stable ratio of 18O in the Lake Suigetsu data.
Thanks.
Edited by RAZD, : added formula

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This message is a reply to:
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RAZD
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Posts: 20714
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Message 71 of 357 (368842)
12-10-2006 4:20 PM
Reply to: Message 70 by johnfolton
12-10-2006 3:56 PM


cherry picking
The answering from genesis people link said the uniformitists made assumptions for the mid to lower snow varves.
That still leaves 50,000 years of straight annual layers with no assumptions to hand wave away.
Or to accept that the world is really older than you want to believe it is.
The creationists believe the earth was not yet created 16,000 years ago, that too would account for the lack of vegetation.
There is a lot of evidence of things less than the age that YEC's posit for the age of the earth -- that does not invalidate an old earth.
There is a lot of evidence of things more than the age that YEC's posit for the age of the earth -- that DOES invalidate a young earth.
The issue is not the evidence that you accept, but the evidence that you deny that contradicts your position.
quote:
delusion” -noun
1. an act or instance of deluding.
2. the state of being deluded.
3. a false belief or opinion: delusions of grandeur.
4. Psychiatry. a fixed false belief that is resistant to reason or confrontation with actual fact: a paranoid delusion.
Its not a mystery why the correlations appear to agree(inflating non-random numbers till they agree). Climatics should have some agreement but the problem appears the mid to lower varves and the assumptions used to extrapolate.
Again you have provided no mechanism for this "miraculous" correlation between extremely different and divergent systems ... see
Message 69
So you have one quasi-linear system matching climate to a radioactive decay exponential curve and another entirely different quasi-linear system matching climate to a stable isotope ratio (essentially a flat curve with variations for temperature\climate), and BOTH give the same climate at the same age.
There is no "diffusion" of 14C in the Ice Core data. There is no stable ratio of 18O in the Lake Suigetsu data.
Stating "it is not a mystery" does not take the mystery away.
... all they are finding is vegetation dating no older than 16,500 years.
In that specific location, in spite of expecting to find it only 8,000 years old ...
And they are finding rock that is much much older. Rock that shows the effects of scrapping by ice after being formed by geothermic processes.
And it other parts of the world -- they are STILL finding evidence of life that is still much much much older.
You are cherry picking tid-bits of information and ignoring the total body of evidence that refutes your position.
Dodging the issue of correlations does not do you any good: the evidence is still there whether you {believe\understand\accept} it or not.
Enjoy.

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RAZD
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Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 73 of 357 (368863)
12-10-2006 6:37 PM
Reply to: Message 72 by anglagard
12-10-2006 5:50 PM


Re: Nothing Older Than 16,500 Years in Ice Cores?
... claims that not only are there pollen grains and bacteria in ice cores from Greenland, Tibet, Antarctica, and Bolivia dating back 20,000 years (that the scientists have checked so far), but that, in the case of the bacteria, they are able to revive them and check their DNA.
Not only that but:
quote:
Changes in the numbers of bacteria present within non-polar ice appear to be related to changes in climate. For example, in an earlier cooler, wetter period in S. America, the abundance of local vegetation increased and presumably therefore the amounts of airborne particulates will have also increased. Particulates transport bacteria, and the result is an increased number of bacteria in Andean glacial ice formed at that time.
There appears to be another correlation with layers and climate from another independent system to record climate information within the annual layers.
There is also the matter of the pollen in correlating to climate. We know that pollen from a specific plant, the alpine / tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala, is a marker for climate change, and has the Younger and Older Dryas Periods named after it
Younger Dryas - Wikipedia
quote:
The Younger Dryas stadial, named after the alpine / tundra wildflower Dryas octopetala, and also referred to as the Big Freeze [1], was a brief (approximately 1300 70 years [1]) cold climate period following the Blling/Allerd interstadial at the end of the Pleistocene between approximately 12.7 to 11.5 ky BP [2], and preceding the Preboreal of the early Holocene. In Ireland, the period has been known as the Nahanagan Stadial, while in the UK it has been called the Loch Lomond Stadial.
The Younger Dryas is also a Blytt-Sernander climate period detected from layers in north European bog peat. It is dated approximately 12,900-11,500 BP calibrated, or 11,000-10,000 BP uncalibrated. An Older Dryas stadial had preceded the Allerd, approximately 1000 years before the Younger Dryas; it lasted 300 years [3].
As noted in the main article, this period also shows up in the Lake Suigetsu climate data, even though the markers for climate in that system have nothing to do with bacteria or pollen.
Pollen samples have been used before to study climate change, and now that there is a technique that can isolate pollen from ice cores without contamination, I expect more correlations to follow.
Enjoy.
Edited by RAZD, : fixed paragraph order

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RAZD
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Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 82 of 357 (369618)
12-13-2006 7:11 PM
Reply to: Message 80 by anglagard
12-11-2006 11:00 PM


Re: Nothing Older Than 16,500 Years in Ice Cores?
2. Annual layers of dust are counted as they correlate with visual counts at a rate of 98% where they overlap. The dust is a result of late winter/early spring winds which are global in nature. Counting the dust layers results in a maxomum age of 250,000 BP.
Looks like I need to update the OP again ...
Seasonal variations in dust concentrations too ... and
quote:
At c. 2,464 meters down, their dating of the volcanic ash found there (57,300 1700 BP) agrees very closely with the Z2 layer of volcanic ash found in Atlantic sea cores which is dated 57,500 1300 BP.
another correlation.
quote:
A high reading of sulfuric acid was also found in the GISP2 core at 1623 BC (3573 BP) which correlates very well with the tree-ring dates of 1625 and 1628 BC for the Santorini eruption.26
Reaching back even further, in addition to sulfuric acid
peaks, tephra has been found in both the GRIP and GISP2
ice cores which matches the composition of tephra from
particular volcanic eruptions around 10,300 BP and 52,700
BP.
and another.
Thanks.
Edited by RAZD, : and another

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RAZD
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Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 86 of 357 (369828)
12-14-2006 10:05 PM
Reply to: Message 84 by johnfolton
12-14-2006 8:14 PM


Re: Nothing Older Than 16,500 Years in Ice Cores?
The granites were created at the time the helium became trapped within the granites.
False.
This also has nothing to do with correlations so no further response is necessary.
Please stick to the topic.
Enjoy.

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This message is a reply to:
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