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Author | Topic: Explaining the pro-Evolution position | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Taq Member Posts: 10085 Joined: Member Rating: 5.1 |
Kleinman writes: rmns is suppressed long before extinction occurs. Even if the population can survive multiple different simultaneous selection pressures, you won't get the amplification necessary for rmns to work efficiently. I already disproved that by showing how two beneficial mutations in two separate lineages can be combined into a single lineage through sexual recombination. This means that you can win two lotteries at once, or walk up two separate staircases at the same time.
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Taq Member Posts: 10085 Joined: Member Rating: 5.1 |
Kleinman writes: So you think that a range animal cannot be subjected to thermal stress, starvation, predation, disease, dehydration,... at the same time? Please try to reply to what I actually said.
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Taq Member Posts: 10085 Joined: Member Rating: 5.1 |
Kleinman writes: And then there is always 3 and more different flights of stairs. What happens then? Those adaptations are also selected for within the population and can be combined into a single lineage through sexual recombination.
Not quite yet, you still have quite a few more flights of stairs to climb. We are going to get you cardiac fit and teach you a little probability theory before this is over. Or you could actually address my posts instead of running away from them. You don't have to win two lotteries. The descendants of two lottery winners can marry, pooling the winnings together. Are you going to respond to this in a meaningful manner, or not?
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 364 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
quote:E. coli long-term evolution experiment - Wikipedia quote:That's about 1 beneficial mutation per thousand generations. If you think that's fast, would you argue about Haldane's dilemma? As for the Citrate metabolizer (e coli has alway been able to metabolize Citrate because it has a Krebs cycle), appeared at about generation 31500, not at 100 generations. The problem is not in the citric acid cycle for e coli, it is in the ability to transport citrate in the presence of oxygen. If I recall, those variants were spherical forms and so it may be that a mutation causing a defective cell wall allows the citrate to enter. And yes, my equations include the possibility for this type of more rare mutation.
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Modulous Member Posts: 7801 From: Manchester, UK Joined: |
It tends to decrease in frequency. Yup So we agree that random mutation does not 'consist{s} of a beneficial mutation occurring'. Good. That's all I was saying with this.
rmns is not dependent on the relative frequency of variants in a population. Obviously. Natural selection is the name for some of the factors that cause frequency changes in a population. Obviously. Natural selection is the name for some of the factors that cause frequency changes in a population. Was there some reason you repeated yourself?
They are not competing for food initially because the petri dish is so large But they don't evolve antibiotic resistance initially. So how does this demonstrate that rmns is working 'better'?
At what point do you say that the probabilities are so low that the particular outcome is impossible. The point is that you are treating the selection pressures affecting HIV subject to combination therapy (a distinctly unnatural event) as the same as those affecting the dinosaurs and trying to conclude this means the dinosaurs could not have evolved into birds. You are trying to suggest the probabilities are the same, or worse, without providing any evidence of this. You just use the obfuscatory 'the maths is the same' line I have previously criticised as insufficient.
You might say that winning a single lottery is possible and that winning two lotteries is also still possible but not very likely and winning three lotteries, that's getting a little iffy, how about you winning 10 lotteries or a 100 lotteries? If the odds of winning a lottery is 1 in 10,000,000 and I buy a quadrillion tickets, I expect to win a billion times in one lottery or once in a billion lotteries or any combination between. However, you have not provided the numbers to answer the question in the case of dinosaurs, you have assumed the lottery or lotteries the dinosaurs entered was the same as the lottery or lotteries HIV enters during therapy. This is an empirically false assumption, hence your incorrect conclusion. Despite your attempt to distract from this point, it remains the fatal flaw in your argument.
You can have amplification without any change in the relative frequency of the variants in a population by having all variants amplifying simultaneously. It's possible, but stupendously unlikely, for this to occur in nature. It cannot happen for long.
That's what you are seeing in the video of the bacteria evolving resistance. No, it isn't.
You see multiple different colonies forming and then you get mutant variants in several of the colonies which can then start growing on the increased concentration antibiotic bands. But the variants that have not evolved the antibiotic resistance don't amplify. At least there is no evidence that if they do, they do so at exactly the same rate as the bacteria with the new food source. Indeed we can use the work of Lenski already presented to demonstrate adequately that having fewer food sources inhibits amplification compared with having more.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 364 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
quote:You think starvation is a soft selection pressure? All adaption by rmns requires lineages to address nested binomial probability problems. It doesn't matter whether they are antimicrobial agents, starvation, dehydration, thermal stress, predation, diseases, you name it. And why do you keep ignoring my question whether the intensity of selection alters the evolutionary trajectory to adaptation? If the same selection pressure is applied at low intensity, does it require different mutations for adaptation than if the selection pressure occurs at high intensity?
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 313 days) Posts: 16113 Joined: |
That's about 1 beneficial mutation per thousand generations. If you think that's fast, would you argue about Haldane's dilemma? Well, it's fast enough: see post #275.
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 313 days) Posts: 16113 Joined: |
You think starvation is a soft selection pressure? That depends crucially on whether it's hard or soft.
All adaption by rmns requires lineages to address nested binomial probability problems. Well, perhaps you could show us some math.
And why do you keep ignoring my question whether the intensity of selection alters the evolutionary trajectory to adaptation? Where did you ask me that? The answer is obviously yes.
If the same selection pressure is applied at low intensity, does it require different mutations for adaptation than if the selection pressure occurs at high intensity? It may.
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 313 days) Posts: 16113 Joined: |
So, here are the results of some simulations differing only in the number of selection pressures operating.
Click to enlarge. As you can see, the rate of adaptation is faster the more selection pressures are operating, in line with (a) my math (b) common sense. Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 364 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
quote:So do you think the amplification time (starvation alone=>about 1000 generations per beneficial mutation) would speed up if a small thermal stress was added to his populations or would the number of generations per beneficial mutation increase? quote:Large numbers of low intensity selection pressures do not cause rmns to work, you get drift under these conditions.
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Taq Member Posts: 10085 Joined: Member Rating: 5.1 |
Kleinman writes: All adaption by rmns requires lineages to address nested binomial probability problems. It doesn't matter whether they are antimicrobial agents, starvation, dehydration, thermal stress, predation, diseases, you name it. Asexual species overcome these problems by conquering one at a time, not all at once. Edited by Taq, : No reason given.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 364 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
quote:Of course, that's what selection pressures do. Selection pressures drive down populations unless the populations can adapt to those pressures. quote:Taq, there is no such thing as a probability value over 1. Why don't you watch some youtube videos on probability theory, eg Khan Academy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzkc-qNVoOk&list=PL06A16C...
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bluegenes Member (Idle past 2506 days) Posts: 3119 From: U.K. Joined:
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Kleinman writes: As for the Citrate metabolizer (e coli has alway been able to metabolize Citrate because it has a Krebs cycle), appeared at about generation 31500, not at 100 generations. I said "change the circumstances". I know the Lenski experiment took over 30,000 generations for Cit+. The multi-mutation adaptation can happen in less than 100 generations in other circumstances. Just a moment... That, ironically, is a paper by creationists who didn't like the idea that the occurrence of Cit+ in Lenski is special, and set out to show that it could happen easily. It can. So, where are your calculations? Surely they're not based on the view that an adaptation involving 5 or more mutations in sequence would take ~31,000 generations in a culture of bacteria in any or all environments? How are environments factored in? You still seem to be assuming that organisms have to be threatened with extinction in order to evolve, as suggested before. They don't. Flying squirrels evolve alongside the non-flying versions they descend from, and both thrive. It's just better to be able to glide in certain environments. Same with dinosaurs. The fliers existed alongside the non-fliers for tens of millions of years. They just fill different niches.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 364 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
quote:But the populations are amplifying improving the probability that the first beneficial mutation will land on some member of a population quote:I disagree with you. I think combination selection pressures are the rule in nature. Drought, starvation, thermal stress, disease, predation,... quote:How large is that population size for dinosaurs? And remember, or learn, that rmns occurs on lineages, you know, common descent. And that quadrillion population is now reduced to a new lineage of 1 with that first beneficial mutation. And until that variant amplifies, the probabilities are very low that the 2nd beneficial mutation will occur on one of its descendants. quote:Well then how did Weinreich measure so many different variants from his one targeted antibiotic selection pressure? quote:What do you think you are seeing in the video. Do you think that all the colonies are giving the same variants? quote:The non-antibiotic resistant variants amplify until the resources of the plate are exhausted. They were not able to do enough replication trials to get that beneficial mutation.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 364 days) Posts: 2142 From: United States Joined: |
quote:Fast enough for what? This is an experiment with only a single selection pressure. Somehow you have gotten in your mind that adding selection pressures will speed up this process. rmns is nothing more than nested binomial probability problems, that's the mathematical fact of life. And adding more selection pressures simply adds more binomial probability problems for the lineage to solve.
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