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Author Topic:   A Modern Day Miracle Man - Establishes the Supernatural Realm
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1053 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 7 of 297 (525686)
09-24-2009 8:57 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Cedre
09-24-2009 5:09 AM


On the regularity of plane crashes
Without taking the time to verify what he actually said - this particular prophecy isn't particularly impressive. He doesn't give a date, simply saying 'Friday'. I'd assume that meant this Friday, but lets give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he meant any Friday. He didn't mention a place, so all we have is a plane accident on a Friday involving a family. He actually said 'families' inside a plane - so any private jet which crashes with at least one family aboard on a Friday will do. He didn't say the family would die, so this is irrelevant to the success of his prediction.
Let's see how unlikely this event is. According to the Aircraft Crashes Record Office in Geneva, which attempts to record every air accident involving a plane big enough to carry at least 6 people, the mean number of annual accidents in the previous five years was 165.2. Assuming an accident is just as likely to happen on one day of the week as any other, this means we'd expect approximately 23.6 crashes on Fridays in the average year (without checking this, I'd expect Fridays to be a more likely day for a family's private jet to crash - it's the start of the weekend in much of the world, just when a family might be jetting off for a couple of days on their favourite Pacific / Carribbean island resort).
Each year has either 52 or 53 Fridays, so if we have an air accident on 24 Fridays; approximately every other Friday will expect to see an air crash. The fact that a family will be involved in an air accident in a private jet at some point in the future on a Friday is a pretty safe bet - note that it wasn't till five Fridays later that he managed to find an event that matched his prediction.
More later! I'm at work.
Edited by caffeine, : minor grammar and style changes

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Cedre, posted 09-24-2009 5:09 AM Cedre has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 9 by Cedre, posted 09-24-2009 9:07 AM caffeine has replied

  
caffeine
Member (Idle past 1053 days)
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 27 of 297 (525723)
09-24-2009 11:44 AM
Reply to: Message 9 by Cedre
09-24-2009 9:07 AM


Re: On the regularity of plane crashes
Tb Joshua also said Friday of the month and asked his congregation to pray on the Friday of the month, it must have been a known Friday ithat case.
'Friday' is not a date, and nor is 'Friday of the month'; particularly when we consider that it did not happen in the same month he was supposed to have said this.
When everything is considered the prediction is too detailed to be a coincidence, and your paragraph below becomes meaningless.
Oddly enough, the remaining 'meaningless' paragraph was the bit where I provided figures to illustrate that the fact that, whilst the prediction may seem detailed at first, the events described (private planes with families on them being involved in an accident on a Friday) are probably not that uncommon that we should be surprised one happened 33 days after the initial prediction.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 9 by Cedre, posted 09-24-2009 9:07 AM Cedre has replied

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