The proof for the incredibly small chance you are over exagerrating is in the fact that the small chance has occured. If the small chance has occured then its probability of occuring is 1. Someone alluded to this earlier in saying that any thing that has occured in the past has an occurence of 1.
As to your citation it doesn't incorporate non-traditional forms of 'life' in which you consider things that self-replicate. Unless you can define life in a way that discludes self-replicators. (viruses i think aren't commonly considered life because viruses require, to my knowledge, another organism's reproduction system)
While saying that yes the smallest bacteria genome is 470 gene products and it would be difficult to concieve of it coming together, this statement does not necessairly consider any excess in the genome. By that i mean there are probably parts of the genome that can be removed that will not affect the ability of the bacteria to reproduce and grow.
Btw its a strange complex to assume that everyone is out to attack the messenger. People are grown ups and can discuss the merits of an idea without attacking the messenger. However, in some cases even when people who disagree and do it respectfully the messenger is sometimes so attached to his/her view that to disagree becomes a personal affront because in some cases it invalidates and bashes his/her person. In that particular case its the messenger putting himself in the way of the attack.