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Author Topic:   Yes, The Real The New Awesome Primary Thread
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1196
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 466 of 478 (784170)
05-13-2016 12:33 PM


A gravis poll today has Clinton up 48% to 46% against Trump
RCP Average 4/17 - 5/10 -- -- Clinton 47.3 Trump 41.6 Clinton +5.7
Gravis 5/10 - 5/10 1574 RV 2.5 Clinton 48 Trump 46 Clinton +2
PPP (D) 5/6 - 5/9 1222 RV 3.2 Clinton 47 Trump 41 Clinton +6
CNN/ORC 4/28 - 5/1 890 RV 3.5 Clinton 54 Trump 41 Clinton +13
Rasmussen Reports 4/27 - 4/28 1000 LV 3.0 Clinton 39 Trump 41 Trump +2
IBD/TIPP 4/22 - 4/28 814 RV 3.5 Clinton 47 Trump 40 Clinton +7
USA Today/Suffolk 4/20 - 4/24 1000 LV 3.0 Clinton 50 Trump 39 Clinton +11
GWU/Battleground 4/17 - 4/20 1000 LV 3.1 Clinton 46 Trump 43 Clinton +3

Now it is about a 5% race between the two.

Sanders has a 13% lead over Trump.

Clinton is loosing in Ohio to Trump and the real shocker is that she is only ahead by 1 in Pennsylvania. Sanders leads by 6% in Democratic Pennsylvania.

If a Democrat is fighting for Pennsylvania, then you know it is trouble. Gore won by 5% and Kerry won by 2%. Hillary is showing signs of a being a looser and even while Trump hasn't even begun to get into the swing of things.


Replies to this message:
 Message 467 by Diomedes, posted 05-13-2016 1:52 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

    
Diomedes
Member
Posts: 695
From: Central Florida, USA
Joined: 09-13-2013


Message 467 of 478 (784176)
05-13-2016 1:52 PM
Reply to: Message 466 by LamarkNewAge
05-13-2016 12:33 PM


Re: A gravis poll today has Clinton up 48% to 46% against Trump
Real Clear Politics has a pretty large number of polls being aggregated. You can see the results here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...ump_vs_clinton-5491.html

But be mindful of the polling entity, as they sometimes produce skews depending on the sample; i.e. if the respondents are from more conservative areas.

Interestingly, the most recent Fox News poll has Clinton up by 7. So if a conservative leaning entity like Fox is still showing a negative against Trump, that doesn't bode well.

Mind you, we are a long way from November. Anything can happen.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 466 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-13-2016 12:33 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 468 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-13-2016 4:19 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1196
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 468 of 478 (784183)
05-13-2016 4:19 PM
Reply to: Message 467 by Diomedes
05-13-2016 1:52 PM


Fox poll is over 1 month old.
Older polls are only useful when nothing newer is available to supersede them. They are always outdated, even when newer polls don't exist, but they are used so one at least has something to clue them in on where we are. Regardless, we have tons of newer ones.

Here is an article that will clue us in on the situation.

quote:

Fearing Trump, some Democrats up pressure on Sanders to exit
LISA LERER and KEN THOMAS
Associated Press 12 hours ago .

WASHINGTON (AP) Pressure is mounting on Bernie Sanders to end his campaign for president, with Democratic Party leaders raising alarms that his continued presence in the race is undermining efforts to beat presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump this fall.

The new concerns come after Sanders recent wins over front-runner Hillary Clinton in Indiana and West Virginia. While those victories have provided his supporters a fresh sense of momentum heading into next weeks primaries in Kentucky and Oregon, they did almost nothing to help Sanders cut into Clintons nearly insurmountable lead in the delegates who will decide their party's nomination.

I don't think they think of the downside of this, said Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., a Clinton supporter who hosted the 2008 meeting that brokered post-primary peace between Clinton and then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

It's actually harmful because she can¡'t make that general-election pivot the way she should, Feinstein said. Trump has made that pivot.

Clinton, her aides and supporters have largely resisted calling on Sanders to drop out, noting that she fought her 2008 primary bid again Obama well into June. But now that Trump has locked up the Republican nomination, they fear the billionaire businessman is capitalizing on Sanders's decision to remain in the race by echoing his attacks and trying to appeal to the same independent, economically frustrated voters that back the Vermont senator.


Interesting that Sanders is doing well against Trump without some fake "pivot" gimmick.

I thought Trump was supposed to be the easy one to beat. We used to be told that Sanders was unelectable before all the polls - 1000s - told a different story over and over again.

Anyway, we have these wonderful super-delegates to make sure the electable candidate wins.

Let the supers do their super job.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 467 by Diomedes, posted 05-13-2016 1:52 PM Diomedes has not yet responded

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1196
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 469 of 478 (784379)
05-17-2016 4:58 PM


A new general election poll in Georgia (by the Atlanta Journal Constitution paper).
Hillary is loosing to Trump by about 4% while Sanders leads Trump by 5%.

Diane Feinstein said that Democrats need to do a "pivot" to the "center" to win nationwide.

Well that uncompromising "socialist" is not only leading nationwide, but he is leading in this large deep-south state.

Sanders needs to stay in the race because he is also winning in Florida (by a few) and in North Carolina (by 18%). He has a big lead in Virginia. If Sanders is ahead in South Carolina (I doubt it but who knows), then that is the entire east coast.

The Feinstein b.s. is disguising the fact that the facts demand that we should urge Sanders to stay in the race so Democrats can win(I don't care too much about the political parties mind you, but that aside).


    
Dr Adequate
Member
Posts: 16030
Joined: 07-20-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 470 of 478 (784399)
05-17-2016 11:34 PM



Replies to this message:
 Message 472 by ramoss, posted 05-18-2016 9:32 PM Dr Adequate has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1196
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 471 of 478 (784458)
05-18-2016 12:11 PM


Some recent articles on the race.
[ The content of this message was mostly cut-n-pastes, so it was removed and sent to author in a PM. --Admin ]

Edited by Admin, : Removed content.


Replies to this message:
 Message 473 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-20-2016 2:34 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3078
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 472 of 478 (784514)
05-18-2016 9:32 PM
Reply to: Message 470 by Dr Adequate
05-17-2016 11:34 PM


The ironic thing, that is an actual obituary!
This message is a reply to:
 Message 470 by Dr Adequate, posted 05-17-2016 11:34 PM Dr Adequate has not yet responded

  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1196
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 473 of 478 (784639)
05-20-2016 2:34 PM
Reply to: Message 471 by LamarkNewAge
05-18-2016 12:11 PM


Re: Some recent articles on the race.
What percentage of the post was my own words?

I thought it was the majority.

I really want to know.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 471 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-18-2016 12:11 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 474 by Admin, posted 05-20-2016 5:03 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
Admin
Director
Posts: 12557
From: EvC Forum
Joined: 06-14-2002


Message 474 of 478 (784643)
05-20-2016 5:03 PM
Reply to: Message 473 by LamarkNewAge
05-20-2016 2:34 PM


Re: Some recent articles on the race.
Rule 6 of the Forum Guidelines begins, "Avoid lengthy cut-n-pastes." That includes lengthy cut-n-pastes of your own earlier posts. You can refer to messages in the current thread with a simple [msg=<message-number>], and to messages in other threads with a simple [mid=<message-id>].

--Percy
EvC Forum Director

This message is a reply to:
 Message 473 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-20-2016 2:34 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1196
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 475 of 478 (784906)
05-25-2016 3:56 PM


Trump now leads.
He has taken a 0.2% lead in the Real Clear average. He was as close as 1.8% in early January or late December, then trailed by 11% in early April or late March.

Was down by about 7% 2-3 weeks ago.

He also has turned Clinton's 9 point lead in North Carolina into a 4 point lead for himself according to a new Democratic firm run poll (PPP is the firm).

Clinton is actually tied at 38% against Trump in Democratic leaning Virginia. (in Presidential years, Virginia is Democratic)

Clinton only leads Trump by 11% in New Jersey (Sanders leads by 24%) and 14% in California.

My deleted articles included AP and Washington Post journalists reporting that Trump is running to the left of Clinton on many issues, and especially on war and peace centered policy disputes.


Replies to this message:
 Message 476 by NoNukes, posted 05-25-2016 11:17 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

    
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 10870
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 476 of 478 (784922)
05-25-2016 11:17 PM
Reply to: Message 475 by LamarkNewAge
05-25-2016 3:56 PM


Re: Trump now leads.
Clinton is actually tied at 38% against Trump in Democratic leaning Virginia. (in Presidential years, Virginia is Democratic)

Over the last four elections, Virginia has gone to democrats twice and republicans twice. So when you say that it is democratic in presidential years that means what exactly?

Barack won North Carolina in his first election and lost it in the second election.

I am not going to dispute a single poll with you. But let's consider that Trump is now running alone while Clinton has yet to get Sanders put away. Neither candidate has picked a running mate.

Finally I would suggest taking a peek at what is required for Republicans and Democrats to win a general election. As long as you are futzing around about margins in North Carolina and Virginia, you are talking about zip point diddly. Barack was very competitive in NC even in that second election but ultimately he ended up about where Hillary is polling right now. Bernie got his but totally kicked in North Carolina.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 475 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-25-2016 3:56 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 477 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-27-2016 4:20 PM NoNukes has responded

    
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1196
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 477 of 478 (785089)
05-27-2016 4:20 PM
Reply to: Message 476 by NoNukes
05-25-2016 11:17 PM


Re: Trump now leads.
quote:

Over the last four elections, Virginia has gone to democrats twice and republicans twice. So when you say that it is democratic in presidential years that means what exactly?

In 2000 Gore lost 52.4% to 44.4%

in 2004, Kerry lost by 8.1%

In 2008 Obama won by 6.6%.

In 2012 Obama won by 3.9%.

Actually, I'm really glad you want to go back (almost) to the last century. Though not for the same reasons I suppose.

quote:

Barack won North Carolina in his first election and lost it in the second election.

Obama won by 0.2% in 2008 when he won nationwide by 7.4%. He won nationwide by 3.9% in 2012, but lost by 2.4%. Hillary is down by 4% in 2 straight polls, including one today. It is a battleground perhaps.

My point was that she doesn't have her 9 point lead anymore, and this was one of a few states that would make the Electoral College total much closer (than the big Hillary lead we heard of weeks ago) if Trump improved his performance.

quote:

I am not going to dispute a single poll with you. But let's consider that Trump is now running alone while Clinton has yet to get Sanders put away. Neither candidate has picked a running mate.

You are drawing a picture of a unified GOP and divided Democratic party. But 2016 public opinion Presidential polls show typical crossover numbers. Remember that in 2008, Obama got just 7% of Republican voters, while McCain got 11% of Democrats, and 2012 saw even more Democrats cross over for Romney and fewer GOP crossover voters. Obama only won 86% of liberals in 2012.

I see just the opposite dynamic at play (than the picture you draw).

Democrats (alone) are fairly united, but the country is very much anti-establishment.

Trump just bashed GOP star Governor Susan Martinez in New Mexico. And the neo-con Bill Kristol. And Mitt Romney. And Jeb Bush.

http://www.foxnews.com/...l-smacking-republicans-around.html

quote:

Nominee or not, why is Trump still smacking Republicans around?
By Howard Kurtz
....
...after all our months of obsessing over 1,237, there was something about seeing him exceed that magic number that underscored the magnitude of what Trump had just pulled off
....
But while this should be a unifying moment for Trump, that hasn’t been the case,
....
The signature moment was when Trump went to New Mexico and slammed the state’s governor, Susana Martinez
....
But Trump was just getting warmed up. He repeated his shots at Mitt Romney as a “choke artist” and added a new image, that the last GOP nominee waddles “like a penguin.” He was back to wondering whether low-energy Jeb might get a burst of energy and endorse him.

And then Trump took on Bill Kristol, who has been leading the charge for a conservative third-party candidate.
....
Well, Kristol is a pretty prominent conservative as the editor of the Weekly Standard and a former GOP strategist who worked for Dan Quayle in the White House.

Noting that Kristol was a major Iraq war booster, Trump said: “All the guy wants to do is kill people, go to war and kill people, even though he knows it’s not working, although he doesn’t know because he’s not smart enough.” And later on: “What a loser!”


The Republicans are really united, huh?

And Romney won't support Trump.

quote:

Finally I would suggest taking a peek at what is required for Republicans and Democrats to win a general election. As long as you are futzing around about margins in North Carolina and Virginia, you are talking about zip point diddly. Barack was very competitive in NC even in that second election but ultimately he ended up about where Hillary is polling right now. Bernie got his but totally kicked in North Carolina.

Bernie got his butt kicked in the Democratic primary, thus contradicting your picture of a divided party. But he is beating Trump.

Btw, now Clinton is only leading Trump by 10% in safely Democratic California. Sanders wins by 24%. And he has limited Democratic support too(so limited that he gets butt kicked in the primaries).

Clinton leads Trump by 1% while Sanders butt-kicks him by around 10%.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 476 by NoNukes, posted 05-25-2016 11:17 PM NoNukes has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 478 by NoNukes, posted 05-27-2016 6:31 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
NoNukes
Member
Posts: 10870
From: Central NC USA
Joined: 08-13-2010
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 478 of 478 (785101)
05-27-2016 6:31 PM
Reply to: Message 477 by LamarkNewAge
05-27-2016 4:20 PM


Re: Trump now leads.
Actually, I'm really glad you want to go back (almost) to the last century. Though not for the same reasons I suppose.

Uh, I cited a history of just four elections.

Bernie got his butt kicked in the Democratic primary, thus contradicting your picture of a divided party.

Surely you are not making that argument which is essentially saying that Bernie is not even a contender.

You are bouncing up and down with each poll result. Clinton is winning, now she is losing, now she is winning but not by enough etc. Chill a bit. There is lots of stuff to get through over the summer. We both know that eventually Clinton will receive a chunk of Sanders support. We might even end up with a Clinton Sanders ticket.

And yes, Trump is in consolidating support among republicans. No question about that.


Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846)

History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King

If there are no stupid questions, then what kind of questions do stupid people ask? Do they get smart just in time to ask questions? Scott Adams


This message is a reply to:
 Message 477 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-27-2016 4:20 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

    
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