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Author Topic:   Hurricanes defying conventional science.
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 2 of 100 (265516)
12-04-2005 5:47 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by randman
12-04-2005 5:12 PM


Well so far I have not seen any signs of either storm "defying conventional science". In fact they simply followed pretty well recognized natural events.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 5:12 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:04 PM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 4 of 100 (265583)
12-04-2005 11:13 PM
Reply to: Message 3 by randman
12-04-2005 11:04 PM


Re: Then you haven't been paying attention.
The normal expectations were for it to weaken over colder water, but it did not. May have now, but it didn't fit the models. Likewise the hurricane last year in the south Atlantic did not fit the models either.
May not fit the models of IDist, Creationists, Alien Abductees, Pyramidologists, readers of Ouija boards and other such groups, the it seems to fit the models used to predict it's path.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:04 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 5 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:14 PM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 6 of 100 (265586)
12-04-2005 11:26 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by randman
12-04-2005 11:14 PM


Re: Then you haven't been paying attention.
Actually, I do read and pay attention. Living where I do reading all the information from National Hurricane Center is a must. Every day is minimal but every update par for the course when there's a storm. These two storms were driven by exactly the same forces as every other hurricane, and fit well within the limits of all five of the different models used.
The Hurricane season may well be laid out on a calendar, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the storms. They don't read, even calendars. Storms are driven by perfectly normal conditions and it sure isn't inexplicable. 'Cept maybe for those who are willfully ignorant.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:14 PM randman has replied

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jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 11 of 100 (265594)
12-04-2005 11:42 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by coffee_addict
12-04-2005 11:31 PM


One place to start is William Gray
at Colorado State University. Right now he is probably the formost expert on hurricane prediction and what forces and conditions go into determining whether there will be more or fewer hurricanes in any given season.
Like so many things in meterology, we're still pretty early in the learning cycle, but so far there hasn't been anything that would cause a major suffling or paradigm shift in our understanding.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:45 PM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 16 of 100 (265600)
12-04-2005 11:55 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by randman
12-04-2005 11:45 PM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
That was the post of a simpleton.
Data. It's more data in a learning experience. And it will help undersstand and make the models even better.
Sorry randman, but that's how science, unlike Creationism, ID, ouija boards, tarot cards and pyramidology works.
The most important statement in science is "That's funny?"
This message has been edited by jar, 12-04-2005 10:56 PM

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:45 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 18 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:57 PM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 22 of 100 (265607)
12-05-2005 12:00 AM
Reply to: Message 18 by randman
12-04-2005 11:57 PM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
jar, you've got something so far stuck up your butt that you can't think straight.
Very clear randman. LOL
The media and meteorologists were all surprised very much by these 2 storms for the reasons I gave.
Sure they were surprised. Big damn deal. What's your point? They were not impossible, only unexpected. Not inexplicable, only unexplained.
Do you have a point is is this going to be yet another thread of vague silly sophomoric assertions of incredulity?

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by randman, posted 12-04-2005 11:57 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 24 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:05 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 27 of 100 (265613)
12-05-2005 12:11 AM
Reply to: Message 24 by randman
12-05-2005 12:05 AM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
Hey, if you don't understand how science works (and your posts have made it perfectly clear that you don't) then don't start threads on science. If you'd started this off with a resaonable statement along the lines of "the storms from the last two years may lead to better understanding of tropical weather" then I'd be in full agreement.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:05 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 28 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:14 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 32 of 100 (265619)
12-05-2005 12:22 AM
Reply to: Message 28 by randman
12-05-2005 12:14 AM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
randman
1954
December 30th.
hurricane Alice
continued on into 1955
only hurricane to continue into two years.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:14 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 34 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:27 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 35 of 100 (265623)
12-05-2005 12:35 AM
Reply to: Message 34 by randman
12-05-2005 12:27 AM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
So far the storms have not really done anything unexpected, any more than any other storm. Yes, this latest is over cooler water, but come on, even over ocean waters that are only in the seventies, there is a bunch of energy. The storms stiill behave according to the other weather systems, the current one blocked and trapped in a narrow band.
There will be many other storms that don't fit the models. That's one reason they use 5 different models to project tracks. We learn form each one.
The most you can say about these latest storms is "That's interesting?"

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 34 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:27 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 37 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:37 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 40 of 100 (265630)
12-05-2005 12:43 AM
Reply to: Message 37 by randman
12-05-2005 12:37 AM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
Energy moves from a warmer source to a colder source. It's not the absolute temperatures but the difference between the air and water, as well as other factors.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 37 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 12:37 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 47 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 8:56 AM jar has replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 69 of 100 (265772)
12-05-2005 12:34 PM
Reply to: Message 47 by randman
12-05-2005 8:56 AM


Re: One place to start is William Gray
I have always heard that as low as 70 degrees, the effect is to sap energy (heat) from the storm, not add to it.
I don't doubt that is what you've always heard. That simply confirms what your posts have shown all along, that when it comes to science, you don't have a clue.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 47 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 8:56 AM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 71 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 1:24 PM jar has not replied
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jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 70 of 100 (265773)
12-05-2005 12:36 PM
Reply to: Message 57 by randman
12-05-2005 11:07 AM


Re: Black-and-white thinking
Wiliam Gray and Gary Gray are the same person?

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

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 Message 57 by randman, posted 12-05-2005 11:07 AM randman has not replied

  
jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 96 of 100 (266245)
12-06-2005 10:54 PM
Reply to: Message 95 by randman
12-06-2005 10:29 PM


Re: Mud slinging and human responses
fine, let's look at what I said.
jar writes:
May not fit the models of IDist, Creationists, Alien Abductees, Pyramidologists, readers of Ouija boards and other such groups, the it seems to fit the models used to predict it's path.
So far since it's inception, the National Hurricane Center has published prdictions on the path of the hurricane extending out up top five days.
If the hurricane did not follow the models that they use, then they would not have been able to publish those predictions.
They did.
jar writes:
Actually, I do read and pay attention. Living where I do reading all the information from National Hurricane Center is a must. Every day is minimal but every update par for the course when there's a storm. These two storms were driven by exactly the same forces as every other hurricane, and fit well within the limits of all five of the different models used.
See above.
Sorry Charlie. These two storms are no more unusual than the 1954-1955 Hurricane Alice. They are a "That's interesting?" moment, certainly events we will learn from, but the rest of your stuff, that they will lead to fundamental revisions of meterology or your even more outlandish idea of them being human generated are tin-foil hat material.
randman, we welcome your continued postings here at EvC. It's important for folk like you and buz and Faith and WILLOWTREE to continue so that the public is constantly reminded that there is a large segment of the population that are totally incapable or reasoned or rational thought.

Aslan is not a Tame Lion

This message is a reply to:
 Message 95 by randman, posted 12-06-2005 10:29 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 97 by Buzsaw, posted 12-06-2005 11:31 PM jar has not replied
 Message 98 by randman, posted 12-07-2005 12:32 AM jar has not replied

  
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