Hurricanes defying conventional science.

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"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND
THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR
EPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK. THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF...
SHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING
SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY
QUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON
SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. GIVEN THIS...AND
THE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO
FAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE
REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES."

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EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE
RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A
TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY
OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE.
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS
HAPPENING YET

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ORRECTED DATES OF AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES

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DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER
...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0920Z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 02/0920Z
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS
IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN
NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON.

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HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

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"AFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS
BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE
NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN
THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE
FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE
BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER
...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.

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EPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL
MODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.
ALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I
HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?"

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