Hurricanes defying conventional science.

I'm a bit ignorant on hurricanes because of where I live (I'll never have to worry about those buggers). Tell me how they defy conventional models.

So... what's your point?

Randman, being one of your fans, I am certain that you did not open up this thread just to make that statement. You're implying something. I'm really bad with reading between the lines, so just tell me.

While I'm not meteorologist, I have studied for quite a bit about chaotic systems. The weather is a chaotic system. Because of this, it wouldn't suprise me if we encounter anomolous data that do not fit into our model.

You mean it's not an integer?On a serious note, there's a reason why chaotic systems are called chaotic. A slight change in any of the infinite variables could dramatically change the result. This is why we refer to it as the butterfly effect. A butterfly could flap it's wing in Brazil and cause a hurricane in the north atlantic.I think this is an area in science that most people are uncomfortable with. People have always been able to go to bed "knowing" that science is all about repeatability and predictability. Unfortunately, nonlinear systems defy this belief. Rather than giving a definite answer, like "on this day and time the hurricane will do this and this... there see I told you so," we are now forced to say "we have reason to believe that on this day and time the hurricane will have so and so chance that it will do this and so and so chance that it will do that..."In a way, we can't really blame people for being uncomfortable with what modern science tells us. Unlike classical science, we can no longer predict the future. It's pretty scary. The best we could do is predict what it will probably do.

You seem to not understand what nonlinear dynamics involve. Trust me, the weather, like most systems in the universe, are chaotic in nature and are very hard to predict. A child could literally start a hurricane by sneezing.A better example of a nonlinear chaotic system to visualize is the double pendulum. The single pendulum motion is easy to predict. We actually have an equation for it where we input a couple of variables and have an output. The double pendulum, however, is chaotic and is impossible to predict. The best anyone could do is predict the probability of what might happen next. It's pretty scary.

That's not how chaotic systems work. You can't point out any variable or any number of variables as a cause for a particular behavior in a chaotic system. In this particular case, people like myself could literally assume that goddunit is just as good an explanation as any other.

There was a stargate sg1 episode where a rogue off-world team steals a weather device from a planet far, far away. The device is used by the inhabitants of that planet to keep the weather from swallowing their planet. When the device was gone, BAM! the apocolypse on that planet began. The device was brought back on Earth and BAM! the world started to flood and stuff, since the device was calibrated for another planet.In star trek, however, controlling the weather isn't much of a problem. They actually control every aspect of the weather and people live happily ever after... until a group of extremists sabotage the weather control system and caused heavy rain for 1 measely day, ruining people's vacation and life on Earth as we know it.

No, it's not.

You are still thinking in terms of linear dynamics. Noone is claiming that it's tightly wrapped around a simple sneeze. The sneeze could cause a minute change in a minute system that expands over time causing a shift in a deciding factor, like the lyapunov exponent in some systems, of the bigger systems, which in turn could eventually affect the really big systems.There was an episode in 7 Days that portrayed this very well. The hero of the story goes back in time exactly 7 days to save the world. The moment he was back, he uses all his money in his savings to bet on a team he knew would win a couple days later. Unfortunately for him, his very presence displaces some molecules that eventually causes a gust of win that causes his team to lose. You know what he said when a scientist explained to him the effects of his very presence? He said, "Oh shit, I just lost my life's savings."